Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

Obama opens up electability gap

[The] national match-up polls [..] that pit either or both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama against John McCain are currently showing a notable development. [..]

Barack Obama initially did better than Hillary Clinton. Back in April through June of last year, both [he and John Edwards] on average led McCain by 5, while Hillary on average was more or less tied with him.

Come summer, a new dynamic was established. The number of match-up polls that included McCain dwindled, as his campaign was judged to have gone south. In the polls that were still conducted, all Democrats did about equally well: all tended to beat McCain by an average of 5 points.

This phase lasted from about July all the way to November. But come December, McCain's come-back, initially driven purely by New Hampshire, became apparent. He was included in the match-up polls more often, and started doing better in them. By the time the New Hampshire primaries came round in early January, he was leading Hillary by 5 points on average, and Obama by 1 point. [..]

By late January, McCain's immediate post-NH bounce waned somewhat, and both Obama and Hillary trailed him in match-up polls by one or two points on average. And since then, it's been all good news for Obama. In thirteen successive polls now, Obama has matched up better against McCain than Hillary.

In the first few [..] this just meant merely tying McCain when Hillary trailed him, or trailing him by a percentage point or two less. But it's been different this month. There have been six match-up polls in February [and] all have seen Obama matching up 5-7 points better than Clinton [..].

POLL: CBS Obama's Speech

"Most voters following the events regarding Senator Barack Obama and Rev. Jeremiah Wright think Obama's speech was a success. Most agree with his thoughts on race, and think he did a good job explaining his relationship with Rev. Wright. However, the percentage who thinks he would unite the country has dropped since late February."

70% of say these events have made no difference in whether or not they would vote for Obama; 14% said it makes them more likely to vote for Obama, 14% say less likely.

"For this poll, CBS News re-interviewed voters who were first surveyed between March 15th and 18th, 2008, in the midst of the Wright controversy and mostly before Obama's speech on race, to gauge their reactions to Tuesday's speech and the continuing controversy over Wright's comments."

CBS Poll: Good Reviews For Obama Speech
But Problems For Democratic Candidate Remain As Fewer Think He Could Unite The Country

[..] Sixty-nine percent of voters who have heard or read about Obama's speech say he did a good job addressing the issue of race relations, and 63 percent of voters following the events say they agree with Obama's views on race relations. Seventy-one percent say he did a good job explaining his relationship with Wright. [..]

When registered voters were asked if Obama would unite the country, however, 52 percent said yes - down from 67 percent last month.

Obama's favorable rating, which stands at 43 percent, continues to outweigh his unfavorable rating of 30 percent. [..]

Nearly a quarter of Democrats say the events have made them more likely to back Obama, while a similar number of Republicans say they are now less likely to do so. Three in four independents say the events make no difference, and the remainder are nearly evenly split between those more likely to support him and those less likely to do so. [..]

Among voters who supported Obama over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain before the speech, 23 percent say they are now more likely to support the Illinois senator. Just six percent are less likely to support him, while 69 percent say it makes no difference.

Overall, the speech and events surrounding the matter have found a wide audience. Most voters say they have heard or read some about these events, including 42 percent who have heard a lot about it. Just four percent of those surveyed had not heard about the controversy.

New InsiderAdvantage Poll
Obama's speech meets unsympathetic ears with Americans

Barack Obama's speech about race on Tuesday impressed many who witnessed it or read it. But most of America did neither, and many of them -- white and black -- were less persuaded of the speech's capacity to heal racial wounds, or to put the issue of race behind Obama as he continues his quest for the White House. [..]

A startling 82% knew about Obama's speech, and about the controversy surrounding the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Of those who knew about the controversy and the speech, we asked, "Taking all this into account, are you more or less likely to support Obama for president?"

Less likely (52%) More likely (19%) About the same (27%)

Surprisingly, 56 percent of blacks said the speech made them less likely to vote for Obama. Not sure what to make of that. Maybe whereas some whites felt Obama didn't sufficiently distance himself from Wright, many blacks felt he shouldn't have to condemn him at all?

Obama Speech Grades: 51% Good or Excellent, 26% Fair, 21% Poor

Eighty-four percent (84%) of America's Likely Voters say they have seen or heard at least some portion of Barack Obama's Tuesday morning speech on race and national unity (see Speech). The speech has become one of the most watched YouTube videos and 82% say they are following news about it somewhat or very closely.

Among those who have seen or heard some of the speech, 51% said it was good or excellent, 26% said fair, and 21% gave the Senator's remarks a grade of poor.

Not surprisingly, opinions divided sharply along partisan and racial lines. Among Democrats, 67% said the speech was good or excellent. Fifty-three percent (53%) of unaffiliated voters agreed along with 31% of Republicans. Eighty-six percent (86%) of African-American voters said the speech was good or excellent along with 45% of White voters. [..]

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Likely voters remain somewhat or very concerned about Obama's relationship with Pastor Jeremiah Wright. That figure includes 72% of Republicans, 54% of unaffiliated voters, and 45% of Democrats. Just 36% of African-Americans are concerned along with 61% of Whites. Voters under 50 are less concerned than their elders.

Thirty percent (30%) said the speech was racially unifying and 21% said it was racially divisive. A plurality, 37%, said it was neither. [..].

The Impact of Pastor Wright and THE SPEECH on Election 2008

Two days after Barack Obama gave the most important speech of his life, it remains unclear what impact the controversy over Pastor Jeremiah Wright will have on the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. However, early data suggests that it has already had a negative impact on Obama's chances of winning the general election against John McCain. The good news for Obama is that his numbers have stopped falling since his speech on Tuesday. The bad news is that they haven't bounced back.

In the week before the media frenzy over Wright, Obama and McCain were essentially tied in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Less than a week later, and two days after Obama's speech, McCain had opened a seven-point lead over Obama. Significantly, by Thursday's polling, McCain had pulled slightly ahead of Obama among unaffiliated voters. McCain also enjoys unified support from Republican voters while Obama only attracts 65% of Democratic votes at this time.

Obama's favorable ratings have also fallen below the 50% mark since the world learned of his former Pastor. This can be seen as part of a larger trend that began shortly after Obama's victories in the Wisconsin Primaries. At that time, just before Hillary Clinton began raising questions about her competitor, Obama was viewed favorably by 56% of voters nationwide. That had slipped to 52% just before Pastor Wright's views became big news and to 47% just before Obama's speech. Two days after the speech, Obama's favorables remain at 48%.

As for the Democratic race, the impact is much harder to assess. Obama generally led Clinton for several weeks leading up to the March 4 Primaries. With victories in Texas and Ohio on that day, Clinton moved into the lead nationally. But, that faded by the weekend and Obama moved ahead once again. Just before the Pastor Wright story exploded on the scene, Obama reached the 50% level of support for the first time. He also had an eight-point lead over Clinton. Now, two days after Obama's speech in Philadelphia, his advantage over Clinton is down to three points. However, his numbers among Democrats appear to have stabilized in the last couple of days.

FreeDuck wrote:

You are interesting, mm. I wouldn't have thought you'd even bother to attend a Hillary event. Full of surprises, you are.

To be honest, my GF wanted to go.
Since I havent made up my mind who I am voting for yet, I will take every oppurtunity I can to hear what the candidates have to say, unfiltered by their spin machines and the press.

She did do one thing that surprised me however.
There was an "overflow room" that held aboout 1500 people, and after her speech she went in there and spent at least an hour, talking to anyone that wanted to say something to her, even me.

I gotta give her credit for that.

I don't know, cyclops. Lets just say it is an issue of trust. Anyone that esteems folks like Pastor Wright who apparently thinks America deserved 911, so does Obama think so too? [..] We don't really know, do we?

Does Obama suspect the U.S. government has introduced drugs into the black community, or does Obama think the government invented HIV as a tool to commit genocide?

I can think of lots more questions that come up, cyclops, but I honestly don't know the answers to these questions. I'm sure Obama's speech writers can come up with something very good for him to recite, but does that tell us what he really thinks?

mysteryman wrote:

FreeDuck wrote:

You are interesting, mm. I wouldn't have thought you'd even bother to attend a Hillary event. Full of surprises, you are.

To be honest, my GF wanted to go.
Since I havent made up my mind who I am voting for yet, I will take every oppurtunity I can to hear what the candidates have to say, unfiltered by their spin machines and the press.

She did do one thing that surprised me however.
There was an "overflow room" that held aboout 1500 people, and after her speech she went in there and spent at least an hour, talking to anyone that wanted to say something to her, even me.

I gotta give her credit for that.

Was your GF a potential Clinton voter before the event, and if so, how did it affect him?

A new Rasmussen poll of Nevada shows that this red state could be poised to vote Democratic this time around, with both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton narrowly beating John McCain for now:

Clinton (D) 44%, McCain (R) 43%
Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%
Nevada is a key swing state that voted twice for President Bush, but only narrowly each time.

has twice taken a public AIDS test himself to encourage other people to do it and take away whatever stigma there is to it.