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What if Bush wins the war after all?

 
 
Zippo
 
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 03:50 pm
What if Bush wins the war after all?

The news out of Iraq keeps getting better. Bombings are down, curfew is being lifted, the US is tentatively planning to reduce troop levels.

What if this goes on? What are the political implications for 2008?

The smart view among the political cognoscenti has been that it won't matter at all. A little over a week ago I asked Charlie Cook, the political superpundit, whether, if there was a steadily improving picture out of Iraq over the next year it might start to change public impressions of President Bush and the Republicans. He was dismissive, very much of the view that opinion was firmly established and would not change even if Iraq turned into Switzerland overnight.

So I was very struck by this article of Cook's posted at the weekend. He still doesn't think the war can become an asset for Republicans, but, as he says, it could stop making their prospects worse.

I suspect public opinion may yet change on Iraq. I doubt a majority of voters will ever think the war has been a triump , but two things are distinctly possible:

1 The news gets to the point where Iraq ceases to be a drag on Bush's ratings, and if that happens it will change overall perceptions of the Bush presidency. If his approval ratings are at 45 per cent a year from now, rather than the current 35 per cent, that can't be anything other than good news for his party. (Though it still doesn't mean they'll win.)

2 A pretty strong case can be made that the surge has been a success. This is tricky for the Democrats. They fiercely opposed the surge and issued dire warnings about what would happen if it went ahead. They insisted on and tried to legislate an immediate withdrawal of US forces last spring. That doesn't look smart right now.
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Type: Discussion • Score: 0 • Views: 1,347 • Replies: 35
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Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 03:53 pm
I just don't believe this good news is anything more than scripted damage control. If I hear it on the BBC I might take it seriously...
0 Replies
 
Zippo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 04:02 pm
Bi-Polar Bear wrote:
I just don't believe this good news is anything more than scripted damage control. If I hear it on the BBC I might take it seriously...


You could be right, i don't think anyone (credible media) is left in Iraq to report the 'good' news. Too dangerious for reporters they could be killed (U.S friendly fire) in Iraq...too risky.
0 Replies
 
dlowan
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 04:10 pm
Bi-Polar Bear wrote:
I just don't believe this good news is anything more than scripted damage control. If I hear it on the BBC I might take it seriously...



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7104819.stm ???
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Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 04:19 pm
good, then. a good thing.
0 Replies
 
Zippo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 04:29 pm
dlowan wrote:
Bi-Polar Bear wrote:
I just don't believe this good news is anything more than scripted damage control. If I hear it on the BBC I might take it seriously...



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7104819.stm ???


From your article: (keywords are underlined)

"Compared to the beginning of the year, attacks against Iraqi civilians have declined by 55% in the country as a whole and by 75% in Baghdad, according to US military figures confirmed by the UN."

They could be lying.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 04:39 pm
Zippo wrote:
dlowan wrote:
Bi-Polar Bear wrote:
I just don't believe this good news is anything more than scripted damage control. If I hear it on the BBC I might take it seriously...



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7104819.stm ???


From your article: (keywords are underlined)

"Compared to the beginning of the year, attacks against Iraqi civilians have declined by 55% in the country as a whole and by 75% in Baghdad, according to US military figures confirmed by the UN."

They could be lying.


It's almost 100% certain that they are in fact lying. This is why small statistical changes, while not negatives, are not real signs of progress.

When I see political progress - and more then just 'less killings,' I will agree that Iraq is looking better.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 04:55 pm
ummmm...how about progress on the polical front?
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 05:02 pm
I saw a report a day or two ago that a map captured from an insurgent hideout has been very helpful in targeting them, and may be very instrumental in reducing the violence, perhaps as much or moreso than the surge. I can't find the report now, but it was a day or two ago.
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 05:08 pm
Bi-Polar Bear wrote:
I just don't believe this good news is anything more than scripted damage control. If I hear it on the BBC I might take it seriously...


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7105216.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7089168.stm

So there is at least 2 articles from the BBC that claim that things are getting better.
Are you now going to say it isnt true?

And on this page...
http://www.iraq.net/

You will find at least 4 stories talking about how much things have improved or how we are getting cooperation fron Syria and Iran.
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 05:28 pm
Quote:
BAGHDAD ?- Outside the Damascus Transport Co. in Baghdad's Salhiyah neighborhood Monday, a dozen or so people sat on their suitcases, looking tired and slightly confused as the bus that had brought them from Syria pulled out for its return run, practically empty.

Not long ago, the opposite would have been the case.

"Before," said Ali Abbas, who runs Damascus Transport, "you would find large numbers of Iraqis headed out, with all their belongings. Most carried mattresses, blankets and pieces of furniture. Now the trend has turned: The Iraqis coming back are returning with their furniture and everything they can carry back."

U.S. and Iraqi officials boast that the returning Iraqis are tangible proof that Baghdad's security situation is improving. Earlier this month, Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki said that 7,000 families had returned to the capital. Iraqi officials estimate that 46,000 Iraqis have returned to Iraq across the Syrian border, and government and some neighborhood leaders are pushing in television and newspaper interviews for residents to return.

Interviews with the bedraggled arrivals outside Damascus Transport found that their hopes for a peaceful life were real, though their decisions to make the trip back to Baghdad often were driven as much by the difficulties of life in Syria as by news that their old neighborhoods might be safe now.

In Syria, where 2 million Iraqi refuges have strained services and the economy, officials have imposed new entry rules. Iraqis who already were there found their visas expiring. Unable to work, they saw their savings soon depleted, with little recourse once the money ran out.

Marwa Sadiq, 21, with eight suitcases at her feet, said she might never have made the 12-hour bus ride if she'd been able to pay the bribe needed to fend off Syrian officials.

But her father, who'd stayed in Baghdad when she fled to Syria, summoned her home when he began keeping his shop open all day, not just for a few hours. That, he decided, was a sign that things were safer.

Sadiq, who'd fled Iraq 11 months ago after a large explosion near her home, said she'd been unconvinced until she crossed the border and didn't encounter any trouble on the road. "There was a tentative hope that the security situation really is getting better, and that the return to Iraq was not a death sentence, " she said.

Coming into Baghdad was a sweet mixture of fear and what she called "the overwhelming happiness of being home again, of not being a stranger, a refugee, anymore, but a 'family member.' "

"It's the most beautiful feeling," she said.

Mustafa Mohammed, 23, and his family had been in Damascus for 10 months after fleeing their home in the western Baghdad neighborhood of Jihad. They decided to come home when neighbors told them it was safe.

"We heard that seven families on our street in Jihad are returning to their homes. They say the security in the neighborhood is better," Mohammed said.

Iraqi and U.S. officials acknowledge that the situation is fragile. There are horror stories such as that told by Soad al Obeidi, 24, whose family returned a few weeks ago to Dora, one of Baghdad's most dangerous neighborhoods.

Last week, her husband's uncles, who'd come home at her father-in-law's urging, were shot dead as they hailed a taxi.

"One week before the incident, people had started to open their shops. But after the shooting, all the shops closed and no one reopened his shop again. They all feel afraid because they knew that the security situation was not improved at all," al Obeidi said. "And my father-in-law feels so guilty."

But those stories aren't likely to keep people from coming home, said Abbas, the Damascus Transport manager. For now, he'll keep sending his buses back to Damascus empty as soon as they drop their passengers here.

"Many of them are somehow relieved to be returning home," he said, as another empty bus headed for Syria.

(McClatchy Newspapers special correspondents Sahar Issa, Laith Hammoudi and Jenan Hussein contributed to this report.)


source

Violence is down and people are returning. Maybe it will turn out ok political wise in a few years which I hope it will but so far I don't see any signs leaning that way.

Things are better but not good or enough to be celebrating. Living conditions are horrible and violence is still horrible; just better than it was which was unlivable.

Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq - Wednesday 21 November 2007

U.S. struggles to restore drinking water to Iraqis

Dying alone

Its like after a big storm and everything settles down somewhat. Its still horrible living in the rubble but at least its not raging.
0 Replies
 
Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 06:06 pm
mysteryman wrote:
Bi-Polar Bear wrote:
I just don't believe this good news is anything more than scripted damage control. If I hear it on the BBC I might take it seriously...


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7105216.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7089168.stm

So there is at least 2 articles from the BBC that claim that things are getting better.
Are you now going to say it isnt true?

And on this page...
http://www.iraq.net/

You will find at least 4 stories talking about how much things have improved or how we are getting cooperation fron Syria and Iran.


you're late to the party again MM....
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 06:24 pm
Bi-Polar Bear wrote:
mysteryman wrote:
Bi-Polar Bear wrote:
I just don't believe this good news is anything more than scripted damage control. If I hear it on the BBC I might take it seriously...


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7105216.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7089168.stm

So there is at least 2 articles from the BBC that claim that things are getting better.
Are you now going to say it isnt true?

And on this page...
http://www.iraq.net/

You will find at least 4 stories talking about how much things have improved or how we are getting cooperation fron Syria and Iran.


you're late to the party again MM....


So do you take these reports seriously or not?
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 06:42 pm
revel wrote-

Quote:
Living conditions are horrible and violence is still horrible


For sure.

But not as horrible when you never knew if you would be getting your front door busted in in the night and you getting carted off to a torture chamber simply because a minor party official had fingered you for some reason or other.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 06:43 pm
For ******* ever.
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 06:45 pm
Add an "ing" to those asterisks.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Wed 21 Nov, 2007 11:09 pm
Roxxxanne wrote:
ummmm...how about progress on the polical front?


?????
0 Replies
 
rabel22
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Nov, 2007 01:28 am
Don't worry about Bushes war. He will still have Afganistan and Iran to feed his military industrial complex even if he wins the Iraq war.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Nov, 2007 01:38 am
Bi-Polar Bear wrote:
I just don't believe this good news is anything more than scripted damage control. If I hear it on the BBC I might take it seriously...


Doubting the NY Times?

If you hear it on the ultra-left, America bashing, BBC you can take it to the bank, but even then your politics may require you to resist?

Is this not a perfect example of Lieberman's admonishment of the Left, that they are emotionally invested in American defeat in Iraq?
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Thu 22 Nov, 2007 01:40 am
Not just about Bi-Po - ditto all y'all other Lefties.
0 Replies
 
 

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