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The US, The UN and Iraq

 
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 03:07 pm
"I don't want anything to do with poets,'' Lyndon Johnson is said to have ordered aides after one came to the White House and criticized the Vietnam War. "Don't bring me any poets.'' It's not as if they have nothing to say.
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 03:17 pm
Since the United States has ended up with so much more imposing a force than any adversary, perhaps the complex should be thanked rather than criticized? Well, no, for exactly the reasons that Eisenhower foresaw: "economic, political, even spiritual." The economic problem is that the federal government no longer has enough money to throw around without a plan. The political problem is the distortion of the process of public choice. Pentagon budget analyst Franklin Chuck Spinney uses the term "political engineering" to describe the parceling out of defense subcontracts to the districts of influential members of Congress. The more senators and representatives are dealt into the arrangements, the harder it is for them to exercise independent judgment.

The most profound source of concern may be what Eisenhower called spiritual: the corrupting effect on the uniformed military by their alliance with contractors. Most career soldiers leave the service by their mid-40s. A tiny handful last until their mid-50s, and nearly all the retirees look for a second career. Far and away the most lucrative opportunities are with defense industries. Knowing that their careers will end this way, soldiers face difficult decisions while still in uniform. Two valuable recent books, Path to Victory by Maj. Donald Vandergriff and Boyd by Robert Coram, consider the distortions of today's military career path.

The United States is back where Eisenhower started, with a renewed appreciation of the problem posed by a military-industrial complex--and recognition of his advice that "[o]nly an alert and knowledgeable citizenry" could bring it under control.

James Fallows is the national correspondent for the Atlantic Monthly and won the American Book Award for National Defense (New York: Random House, 1981
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fishin
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 04:40 pm
dyslexia wrote:
The most profound source of concern may be what Eisenhower called spiritual: the corrupting effect on the uniformed military by their alliance with contractors. Most career soldiers leave the service by their mid-40s. A tiny handful last until their mid-50s, and nearly all the retirees look for a second career. Far and away the most lucrative opportunities are with defense industries. Knowing that their careers will end this way, soldiers face difficult decisions while still in uniform. Two valuable recent books, Path to Victory by Maj. Donald Vandergriff and Boyd by Robert Coram, consider the distortions of today's military career path.


In my own view, as someone that is retired from the military, this is a bit of distorted thinking. The most lucrative positions for the overwhelming number of retirees is NOT with defense industries. Those industries tend to pay poorly unless you are in very senior positions. Most positions with any defense contractor would be at a pay level that is less than when the person was making while on Active Duty.

Very few in the military are ever in any position to "make deals" with any defense contactor that puts them up against any sort of ethical decision. (During my 20 years I never made one single decision in regard to selecting which contractor was awarded any contract.). The only people that will ever really be in that type of position are Contracting Officers (who make ALL of the purchases with the DoD and the majority (around 60%) of those positions are filled by DoD civilians, not active duty military), or very senior officer ranks where the evaluations of contract proposals are made.

Of the 100,000 or so people that retire from Active Duty in all of the military services each year you may have something on the order of 100-150 people that fit within those groups that have the "positioning" to get a lucrative position with a Defense Contractor.
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perception
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 04:50 pm
There is something that concerns me far more than anything that has yet to be brought up

The scorched earth policy that Saddam is very likely to indulge in as he boards the first aircraft out to his new palace in Algeria.

He will try to destroy Iraq just as he ignited all the oil wells in Kuwait---I know the planners are aware of this and our forces will do everything to try and prevent it but----

Does anyone agree?
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perception
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 04:54 pm
Fishin'

Thanks for exploding another popular myth held by some people.
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fishin
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 05:00 pm
perception wrote:
Fishin'

Thanks for exploding another popular myth held by some people.


I don't know that I'd go as far as to say I "exploded" anything. I just think that quite a few people look at the "military-industrial complex" as a negative and then try to find evidence to support a mindset they already have. It does happen to some extent but I don't believe it is to the extent often portrayed.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 06:10 pm
re last few posts

This is not an area that I can speak in with much authority, so I'll ask for feedback on a couple of points which trouble me, though I don't know how they play out in fact, or if they do.

First, it seems to me that Eisenhower was referring to something which he considered both real and dangerous, and I find it hard to imagine a more credible speaker on the topic. Do you think he was wrong on this, or that we are somehow less influenced now by what he spoke of? Do I, in other words, suffer from a military-industrial complex complex?

Second, it seems to me that the huge conglomerates who produce weaponry and related systems and logistics are likely to want the government to keep purchasing stuff, particularly new stuff. It's what they are in business for. I know that the big steel manufacturers (Krupp, etc) were instrumental in arming Europe, and did this as a means to pick up the slack after the great rail building booms (see Anthony Sampson's 'The Arms Bazaar'). I certainly suspect such a dynamic is still in play. The frustrating difficulties in bringing about campaign finance reform, I suspect, have a component here.

These factors could, in my mind at least, be described as negatives.
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Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 06:12 pm
blatham wrote:
Tantor...you said:
Quote:
If he had a nuke, he'd use that. Saddam wants to be the leader of the Arab world, the new Saladdin. Destroying Israel would be a step toward accomplishing that.

I'm unclear...how would he lead the Arab world if dead? Are you considering he would survive after that?


It is not clear to me that we would engage in a nuclear war over Israel, especially if it was already substantially destroyed. A crippled Israel in the Middle East would have no more chance of surviving long than a crippled antelope in a savannah full of jackals. If Israel were a smoking hole, what would be the point of attacking Iraq?

Again, a nuke tends to suppress other nations from attacking you. That's why Saddam wants them so bad.

Tantor
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Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 06:16 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
tantor, Let me see: If Saddam uses a nuke against Israel, I wonder how many Palestinians will be blasted to smithereens at the same time? Yeah, a good way to win Arab support. c.i.


The Arabs don't care about the Palestinians. They all think the Palestinians are trouble makers. That's why you don't see any Arab countries inviting the Palestinians to immigrate to their brother Arab homes. The Palestinians are useful to the Saudis and Egyptians and Iraqis and Iranians only in so far as they provide bodies to fight a religious war against the Jews by proxy. From the Arab perspective, a nuclear barrage that kills all the Jews in Israel and the Palestinians solves two problems.

Tantor
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Craven de Kere
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 06:24 pm
Tantor wrote:
If Israel were a smoking hole, what would be the point of attacking Iraq?

Again, a nuke tends to suppress other nations from attacking you. That's why Saddam wants them so bad.


A) We'd attack Iraq on principle (the principle being that if you have an airtight reason to wage war, minimal war weariness and can draw the map in a more favorable way you do so).

B) I am having a hard time following your l0ogic, you say he'd use it and you also say he'd like to keep it as a deterrent.

For a deterrent you just need to test one. He is hard pressed to build them so you expect him to use one of his few nukes and still think the remaining few nukes would serve as a deterrent?
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Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 06:27 pm
Setanta wrote:
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Meanwhile the Mirror's front page features the caption: "There is a lunatic with weapons of mass destruction 'ramping up' for a war that will imperil the whole world. STOP HIM." The picture accompanying it shows George Bush.


Very much to the point. The maddeningly frustrating part for me as an American, is that our alleged democracy provides those of us opposed to this jingoistic and self-willed war movement have no recourse to reign in the idiot.


You have plenty of recourse in our democracy. The fact is that the majority is for solving the problem of Iraq with war. Your main problem is that you have not made a convincing argument for the efficacy of peaceful solutions, which most people rightly see as more dangerous in the long run.

The greatest irony of the week comes in an article in the current edition of Newsweek which reveals that a poll of Iraqis finds them in favor of an American invasion. The average Iraqi does not relish a military attack but feels that the political situation is so bad it can not get worse. They see an American invasion as an opportunity to improve their lives.

So you have a big job ahead of you, Setanta, trying to talk the Iraqis out of their hopes they will be invaded.

Tantor
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 06:33 pm
Tantor

It seems to me you are exaggerating to an extreme this nuke boogeyman that no one considers the possible scenario here.

It wouldn't be a 'nuclear war' in any normal sense of that term, unless one is assuming some significant number of bombs at Iraq's disposal, and incredible gains in delivery means, and all that is completely improbable at this point. So Israel is not going to be a 'smoking hole'. If there is a real danger, surely it is one bomb on a rocket to one city, something like that.

To say that having a nuke suppresses incoming attacks as an argument in this case is as valuable as saying that because the guy in the house has a gun, it will suppress a police force.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 06:39 pm
Tantor said...
Quote:
The fact is that the majority is for solving the problem of Iraq with war.

Here is a perfect case where you, or anyone, should provide evidence for this claim. Because you are in error. Earlier on this thread, or on another you've engaged, I posted the results of an LA Times poll which found that (quoting AP, Dec 18) "More than two thirds of Americans believe the Bush administration has failed to make it's case that a war against Iraq is justified".

Please take to heart the statements of our moderators that a certain standard of evidence requirement for claims will be demanded here.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 06:39 pm
Besides, I'm not sure how dependable a nuke would be without any tests. c.i.
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Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 07:00 pm
Craven de Kere wrote:
Tantor wrote:

Saddam tried to do exactly that. Our troops found WMDs on the tarmac of Iraqi air bases, waiting to be loaded onto the jets. We don't know why they weren't. It appears that the order was given, the weapons in many cases deployed, but the order not carried out.


You know that the order was given? But don't knoiw why it wasn't carried out? My call: in the absence oif fact you make a judgement call that supports your theories (in this case that the order to use WMDs was given) but when a fact doesn't support your ratiocinantion you disregard it (as in the fact that they weren't used)..


Who do you think gave the order to deploy the WMDs, Craven? Iraq's WMDs are closely controlled by Saddam to the point that the secret police run the WMD research programs. Saddam has a nasty habit of executing people who disobey his orders. That tends to suppress the initiative of his subordinates. It is hardly a wild leap of judgement that the presence of deployed WMDs infers an order from Saddam.


Craven de Kere wrote:

My point was very simple, you used the lanching of the scuds to say Sadaam would use nukes just because he had them. Yet in the past he has had weapons that were not used and in the very situation he described he did not use warheads with WMD. .


Craven, please name any weapons Saddam has possessed and not used. Hint: There aren't any.

Craven de Kere wrote:
Tantor wrote:

We have in fact relinquished many of our nukes. We have invited the Soviets to inspect as we destroyed various missiles and bombers, leaving the pieces out in broad view so that they could be viewed by satellites. Surely you have seen photos in the media of this happenning. For example, we have chopped up much of our B-52 fleet at Davis Monthan AFB, the boneyard for AF aircraft.


We gave up nukes because it's overkill. We don't need as many as we had and it was a smart move to relinquish them. If you have thousands but only need 100s it's a good idea to disarm a bit. If you have single digits and need hundreds it will be a more painful concession.


Craven, then you concede the point that the US has willingly destroyed its nukes? If you remember, you firmly stated the US would never do so. Now you seem to firmly state that of course they do and give excellent reasons why.

Craven de Kere wrote:
Our arms reductions were reciprocated by our competitors in the geopolitical scene, what Sadaam must do will not be reciprocated by anyone.


You might want to check with the Red Chinese, Iranians, North Koreans, and of course Iraq. They don't seem to be reducing their nuclear inventories, but increasing them.

Saddam can not have nukes. Tying his reduction in nukes to an American reduction in nukes is preposterous. We don't intend to use our nukes if we can avoid it while Saddam is an evil aggressive dictator who will indeed use a nuke.

Craven de Kere wrote:
Tantor wrote:

We do in fact host a large contingent of Germans at Holloman AFB, NM. It is where all their pilots train to fly F-4s. Nobody twisted our arm to make it happen. They are foreign troops. They are on our soil. Questions?


What's the ratio of American troops on German soil and German troops on our soil? Also note whether German troops are allowed to operate or conduct missions of any sort from our soil and then look at how our troops on theirs are there to do precisely that.


So then you concede this point too, that America would host foreign troops on its soil? You quite firmly said that America would never let this happen. Craven, of course, the Germans fly missions from Holloman. That's the whole point of training. They are there to learn to fly the jets, to drop bombs from them, and to strafe. Their training missions in America in F-4s are not substantially different from the training missions I flew in F-4s in Germany. The only difference is that we allow them to drop live bombs in America where we can not even drop practice bombs in Germany.

Craven de Kere wrote:
Tantor wrote:

Look up the difference between race and culture, Craven. There is one, you know. Arabs who grow up in our culture adopt our reliance on reason while those who grow up in the Mideast do not. It is not race at issue, but culture. That is why I said our culture is superior to theirs, which is true, rather than our race is superior to theirs, which is not true.

Resorting to cheap race baiting should be beneath you, Craven. Raise your game.


I know the difference. There is still a race by the same name and it's a common euphemism or bigots to decry cultures instead of races. Cultural superiority is curcumstantial in large part and this is a fact that is often missed by bigots. If you are willing to differentiate between these situations then it will be closer to an unbiased claim.


It sounds like you can't make your argument that the Muslim Arab culture is equal to ours so you make a phony argument about race. You are much too desperate to call people who disagree with you racists, a low tactic.

Craven de Kere wrote:
But claiming that Arabs only respond to force is silly. Humans in general are like wheelbarrows, they only go as far as they are pushed. It can be said that almost any nation on earth only responds to force. There have ben very few nations that conceded where concession was not going to be enforced through vuiolence.


When an earthquake strikes Turkey or famine strikes Africa and the US responds with humanitarian assistance, how is that prompted by force? When the US went to the former Yugoslavia to shut down the death camps, how was that prompted by force? When we captured Germany and Japan at the end of the war, what forced us to make them into economic superpowers instead of slave nations?

Craven de Kere wrote:
There are many problems with Arab culture (their zealous religiousness, their undereducation, the inequality for their citizens and much more) and any of those could be used to claim that their culture is currently inferior (a claim I have no qualm with if based on fact)..


So then you concede that the Arab Muslim culture is inferior, too, huh? Wasn't that your main objection to my post? I'm confused, Craven. Does this mean that you are a racist like me?

Hopelessly Befuddled,

Tantor
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Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 07:12 pm
roger wrote:
Not to be picky, but surely German pilots are not paying hard earned Deutch Marks to learn to fly the F-4? Maybe the F-111?


Nope, Roger, F-4s. Believe it or not. I was there at Holloman last year and saw them. It was nostalgic for me seeing those old Rhinos lumbering around the airfield, dripping oil and blowing burnt jet fuel everywhere. The only other place you will see F-4s is in museums or mounted outside with poles stuck up their wazoos.

Which brings up an interesting point about our European allies, who are basically maintaining small militaries with 1980s technology. They are so far behind us technologically that in most cases we can not integrate them into our battle plans. They don't have the right communications devices nor smart weapons nor lots of other things. They are basically peace-keeping forces, not warfighting forces. They would just get in the way if they actually joined us in battle.

It logically follows that if the Europeans lack the properly equipped and trained militaries to fight a modern war they will opt not to join America in a modern war. I suspect that European weakness underlies some of the Europeans' resistance to an American invasion of Iraq.

Tantor
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Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 07:19 pm
Setanta wrote:
The total dominance of the skies over Iraq, btw, may account for why the Iraqis were not able to deploy many of their weapons systems--it may have been caution on Saddam's part, and it may well have been a complete inability to deploy WMD's.


That might well be the answer. Only a handful of Iraqi fighter bombers actually made combat sorties. They were all shot down as far as I know. The primary mission of the Iraqi pilots in the Gulf War appeared to be defecting with their jets to Iran where the Americans would not follow and crazy Saddam could not order them to commit suicide by flying against the Americans.

Tantor
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Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 07:30 pm
fishin' wrote:
dyslexia wrote:
The most lucrative positions for the overwhelming number of retirees is NOT with defense industries. Those industries tend to pay poorly unless you are in very senior positions. Most positions with any defense contractor would be at a pay level that is less than when the person was making while on Active Duty.


That's my experience leaving the Air Force, getting an MBA, and taking a job working for General Dynamics. GD paid its people lousy. As soon as I got enough computer skills to interest outside employers in the civilian market, I was gone.

For the Air Force, the most lucrative jobs when you separate from the service are in the airlines as pilots. My personal observation is that only a small percentage of military officers go to DoD contractors. I seemed to run into a lot of them in the e-commerce world. I've also seen them sacking groceries just for something to do instead of sit around the house. I met a couple retired lt cols who were ski instructors.

Tantor
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Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 07:34 pm
Craven de Kere wrote:
Tantor wrote:
I am having a hard time following your l0ogic, you say he'd use it and you also say he'd like to keep it as a deterrent.

For a deterrent you just need to test one. He is hard pressed to build them so you expect him to use one of his few nukes and still think the remaining few nukes would serve as a deterrent?


I don't think Saddam will stop at building one nuke. He'll make as many as he can. Some will be used, others kept in reserve.

Tantor
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Craven de Kere
 
  1  
Reply Fri 20 Dec, 2002 07:35 pm
Tantor wrote:

Who do you think gave the order to deploy the WMDs, Craven? Iraq's WMDs are closely controlled by Saddam to the point that the secret police run the WMD research programs. Saddam has a nasty habit of executing people who disobey his orders. That tends to suppress the initiative of his subordinates. It is hardly a wild leap of judgement that the presence of deployed WMDs infers an order from Saddam.


So they then disobeyed him and didn't use them? The question is still a simple one. Why didn't Sadaam use the WMDs?

Tantor wrote:

Craven, please name any weapons Saddam has possessed and not used. Hint: There aren't any.


So he doesn't have any WMDs that he didn't have in the 80's? Sadaam has been reported to have had (or still have) several WMDs that he did not use. But I'll leave the task of determining what he has to authorities. I don't pretend to know what he has with great precision and I'd not recommend being too sure about his arsenal. Even our intel is a bit hazy on that.

Tantor wrote:

Craven, then you concede the point that the US has willingly destroyed its nukes? If you remember, you firmly stated the US would never do so. Now you seem to firmly state that of course they do and give excellent reasons why.


The US will never willingly destroy all its nukes. Don't compare apples and oranges. Nobody is asking Sadaam to give up an insignificant portion of his weapons programs.

Tantor wrote:
You might want to check with the Red Chinese, Iranians, North Koreans, and of course Iraq. They don't seem to be reducing their nuclear inventories, but increasing them.


That's like comparing a 15 year old b-ball player to MJ in terms of competition. Nobody thinks Iran, DPRK, or Iraq can possible have more than 8 nukes. That is NOT competition. They also don't have delivery systems that can reach US mainland.

Tantor wrote:
Saddam can not have nukes. Tying his reduction in nukes to an American reduction in nukes is preposterous. We don't intend to use our nukes if we can avoid it while Saddam is an evil aggressive dictator who will indeed use a nuke.


I'd not like to see him with nuke either. And I'm not suggesting bilateral reduction (though it would be simple, when he get's his first we destroy one, we lose less than 1% of ours he loses 100%).

I am simply saying that the fact that he is allowing inspections only under the treat of force does not mean he is devoid of reason.

He had NO reason to allow inspections unless they were required.

Tantor wrote:
So then you concede this point too, that America would host foreign troops on its soil? You quite firmly said that America would never let this happen. Craven, of course, the Germans fly missions from Holloman. That's the whole point of training. They are there to learn to fly the jets, to drop bombs from them, and to strafe. Their training missions in America in F-4s are not substantially different from the training missions I flew in F-4s in Germany. The only difference is that we allow them to drop live bombs in America where we can not even drop practice bombs in Germany.


America would never allow an "enemy nation" (yes, it's safe to say we are an "enemy nation" to Iraq) to train on our soil. And you are engaging in a logomachy. The Germans are just training here. They are not using our bases to attack anyone and we wouldn't let them unless it was our war as well. My point is simply that no nation lets foreign troops in if it does not help them in some way.

Tantor wrote:
It sounds like you can't make your argument that the Muslim Arab culture is equal to ours so you make a phony argument about race. You are much too desperate to call people who disagree with you racists, a low tactic.


I never said they were equal and I did not make any phony argument. I am also not deperate to do anything to people who disagree with me. Read your profile and ask yourself who takes greater issue with differing political views.

Tantor wrote:
When an earthquake strikes Turkey or famine strikes Africa and the US responds with humanitarian assistance, how is that prompted by force? When the US went to the former Yugoslavia to shut down the death camps, how was that prompted by force? When we captured Germany and Japan at the end of the war, what forced us to make them into economic superpowers instead of slave nations?


Slave nations do us no good, what are the concessions again?

Tantor wrote:
So then you concede that the Arab Muslim culture is inferior, too, huh? Wasn't that your main objection to my post? I'm confused, Craven. Does this mean that you are a racist like me?


In many ways Arab culture is inferior, my objection to your post was that it did not contain one of those ways and that you hadn't differentiated between the Arab race and Arab culture (which you since rectified). Furthermore you use circumstantial factors to indict their cultures ignoring that circumstance might play a bigger part than culture. Bigotry is based on the feeling that one is superior. When you are that eager to feel superior to others you run a great risk of being bigoted.

In case I don't get on till next year happy holidays all.
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