Tartarin
Even in German I couldn't have pointed out that any better :wink: !)
(Doing momentarily some work about the time from +/- 1900, I think, there have been some very close similarities - the USA standing outsite 'the ring' at that time, however.)
"Given the state of the Iraqi society and the whole region, there are so many wild cards and no party could fit them beforehand into its calculations with any degree of certainty. But one outcome is almost certain: extremism stands to benefit enormously from an uncalculated adventure in Iraq."
-- U.N. Ambassador Javad Zarif of Iran, at an open Security Council session on Iraq.
http://www.unfoundation.org/unwire/current.asp.
Asherman
How could that happen?
"Smallpox is highly contagious from one person to another."
Smallpox
Do you really think, someone, who is so ill that he hardly can stay on his own feet, will be running around to infect others?
Btw: just because THIS is known, smallpox could be eliminated, and we didn't have any great epedimies the last decades.
Fear that all of you are correct, at least in part. I have the TV and computer on simultaneously, and am always roaming, trying to extract some measure of 'truth'. If Iranians are already in, we are in big trouble, as our special forces have been on the ground for some time. Smallpox rumors or fact? Who knows at this point. Iranian passenger plane now down in southeast Iran.
Yea, and last February, 117 people died when an Iranian passenger plane crashed into snow-covered mountains in the west of the country.
And in December more than 40 people died when a new Ukrainian plane crashed into a mountain as it was preparing to land in Isfahan, about 400 kilometres (250 miles) south of the capital Tehran.
But why should this be related to the (pre-)war?
Then again Walter, I'm sure it wouldn't be beyond Bush to "create" something that started the war besides him!
Don't know that it is related, Walter. Just one more thing...for those who need more reasons to be anxious.
Powers that be have been known to start stuff - and then use the stuff as their rationale.
Fox News now reporting that Iranian plane wasn't full of civilians - but military.
And reports that Saddam is looking for an escape hatch - possibly through Iran to Russia.
" And for the record: Idealism doesn't always work, but sometimes works well. War never has".
"War never has"-----Let me change that to ---APPEASEMENT NEVER HAS
This letter was just posted in another discussion.
"The following was a paid advertisement in the News and Observer newspaper in Raleigh, North Carolina.
"Dear George,
I cannot understand why a Christian man like you is so hellbent
on destroying what little order remains in our fragile world. The
God of the Baptist churhes I grew up in wouldn't tolerate your
hatefulness for one second. And the Jesus who saved my soul would
throw your self-righteous presidency out on the street in a
heartbeat. Maybe the Father and Son are waiting to see just how
low you will go. Or maybe they're just taking a few months off.
Either way, things don't look very good. Unless of course you're
trying to trigger the End Times. If that's your plan, you're off
to stunning start.
"You're now spending more than a billion dollars a month to wage
your war on terrorism. And what do you have to show for it? A
nightmare in Afghanistan, bin Laden on the loose, and a run on
duct tape. And if all that weren't bad enough, you continue to
destabilize the global economy with every threatening speech you
make. You've ordered nearly a hundred thousand military personnel
into position around Iraq and you're prepared to squander more
than $200 billion to invade a sovereign nation. And for what? To
keep America safe? You insult us with that lie. Because despite
your proclamations of noble purpose, the unholy stench of oil and
testosterone overpowers your every word.
"I graduated from the US Naval Academy and worked with amphibious
assault units and Special Forces teams around the world. I thank
heaven every day I am not on active duty under your criminal
command. May God forgive you. You know not what you do.
"Jim Protzman
North Carolina Citizen"
I tried to raise the issue of appeasement on a different forum. No one wanted to discuss it.
Walter,
Smallpox is highly contagious and lethal. It is difficult to contain, and is often transmitted before any symptoms appear. All that is needed to contract the disease is to be in the near vicinity of someone already exposed. Smallpox killed more American Indians than all the bullets fired at them between the arrival of Columbus and end of the Indian Wars. Whole populations have been known to perish in agony within a few weeks after the virus enters the community. This was once of history's biggest killers, and smallpox epidemics went on for century after century. Europeans developed resistance to the disease, but in the Americas, Africa, India and Asia in general the death rates were horrendous.
During the 20th century effective smallpox vaccinations became available and a world-wide effort was made to stamp out one of the worst and most lethal diseases known. Almost everyone in the west was vaccinated and eventually the disease began to be less common. By the early 70's, smallpox was defeated and no cases have been known since that time. The protection provided by smallpox vaccination wears off, and today virtually no one is immune to the disease if it were to suddenly reappear. The natural resistance of Europeans is also thought to have been greatly reduced over the years. Recent concern that Soviet stocks of the disease might find their way into the hands of irresponsible people has caused the United States to build up stocks of smallpox vaccine and to vaccinate first responders and those most at risk if smallpox began to show up.
For smallpox virus to find its way into the hands of Saddam, or Kim is just about the worst news possible, and the risks of the deaths resulting from a world-wide smallpox epidemic can hardly be overstated.
Perception -- If I yell over the fence at a nasty guy sitting in his backyard, insult him and threaten him but decide it's better not to jump the fence and assault him without cause, is that appeasement? Or is it good judgment?
Well, that's completely opposite to what I heard today from virulogists.
They think, it can happen (there's never nowhere 100%), but it would be rather difficult and even then limited to a small amount of people, who could be cured.
I haven't heard of any serious scientist speaking of the possibilty of a world-wide spread. This was even hardly possible in times with no medical knowledge at all!
Walter,
Heres a link that gives a brief history of smallpox. The link does not project its effect if reintroduced into world.
A Brief History of Smallpox
Those parts of the world with robust medical institutions, and sufficient stocks of vaccine may suffer as little as 5-10% fatalities. Where there is medical facilities and doctors are non-existent, or rare, the morbitity of those infected could easily reach 25-30%. With a population of over a billion, and a fragile medical system, China could be a very big loser.
You have another opinion then those experts, I've spoken to.
China, India, and Africa will all be big losers. They can't even control their spread of HIV/AIDS in any meaningful way. How can we expect them to control small pox? c.i.
