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The US, The UN and Iraq

 
 
perception
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Dec, 2002 08:30 pm
Blatham

You wrote: "Just because something gets started, doesn't mean it ought to get finished just so it gets finished.

I didn't say that, and I really didn't imply that, you came up with that conclusion all by yourself. In the first paragraph I said I saw no reason NOT to wait at least a year. Correct me if I'm wrong coach.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Dec, 2002 08:42 pm
Perception

I am sorry. I didn't misunderstand, and read you incorrectly. By way of excuse, I have been up since 4 AM, worked hard, then came in the door, sat down and began screwing up.
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perception
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Dec, 2002 08:47 pm
Blatham

Uh-Huh)))))))
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perception
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Dec, 2002 09:05 pm
Blatham

Can I recommend a mixture of scotch and drambuie(50/50) on ice and catch a nap?
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Dec, 2002 09:40 pm
perception

I am innocent of any wrong doing. I am not a crook. They went thataway...you can catch them if you hurry, officer. Etc

The nap sounds great. For booze, I actually drink perhaps 12 beer in a year. But so I won't forget what it is to be young, I drink them in one evening.
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Dec, 2002 09:51 pm
blatham wrote:
perception

I actually drink perhaps 12 beer in a year.


That sounds like a great idea, blatham. Devoting each successive month to the consumption of a new and different brand or label will certainly prevent the "Same thing case after case" doldrums. I think I'll give it a shot. First, of course, I'll have a couple shots.



timber
0 Replies
 
Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Dec, 2002 09:58 pm
blatham wrote:

"No one would dare intervene if Sadaam had a nuke". I don't think so. We engaged the Soviets, and they us (given that no home land was involved) but risk always there. Further, his power to use one is so limited and consequences so severe and one-sided, that he remains constrained for all the reasons I gave above.


We did not engage the Soviets in the Soviet Union but rather fought their proxies in lands far removed from the Soviet Motherland. If we engaged a nuclear Iraq, it would have to be in Iraq itself. Virtually any conflict with Iraq is likely to result in a nuclear-tipped SSM being launched toward Israel. And then the fertilizer hits the ventilator.

blatham wrote:

Our problem now, I contend, is not merely or even mainly Iraq. It is the far more amorphous (in geography and command) radical element within the Muslim community. They are (and I'm not a paranoid) everywhere. They are hidden. They are disciplined. And their numbers will surely grow if we don't handle Palestine and if we kill a lot of Iraquis, a certainty with war. And the Muslim world will see it on TV.


The Japanese launched three thousand suicide attacks on America in WWII. They lost decisively. The Islamists have only launched a handful of suicide attacks.

Terrorism is a strategy of weakness. I don't know of any case where a terrorist campaign won its political objectives.

Terrorists must hide because they are weak. If they become numerous enough they will become visible enough to kill. There are no winning scenarios for the terrorists. The fact that they have no independent base from which to operate foretells their defeat. They live like ticks on their host occassionally drawing blood. However, the ticks have no chance of taking over.

I don't see a lot of discipline in Al Qaeda. Most of their people act like amateurs. Most of their attacks, drive by shootings and truck bombs, are pretty simple stuff. It appears that most of their attacks fail in the organization stage. Al Qaeda itself suffers from intense bickering, rivalries, and is fairly dysfunctional as an organization. It's about what you would expect where everyone is trying to suck up to the money man, Bin Laden, who has no particular organizational expertise.

I don't think we are going to be killing a lot of Iraqis in the war in February. Of course, if you are one of the Iraqis killed, that will seem like a lot. More than 80% of the bombs we will be dropping will be smart bombs, which means that collateral damage will be sharply reduced. The smart bombs mean that we won't have to field as many aircraft flinging nearly as many bombs about, making our attack far more lethal but far less deadly.

Arabs respect force. They are not particularly fond of reason. It has little appeal to them. When they see the American military take down Iraq in a few weeks in a violent but relatively bloodless victory, they will be awed. Ultimately, the Arabs will come to accept that working with the West is more beneficial than fighting it.

I certainly hope the Muslim world gets an eyeful of American power at work and meditate upon it.

Tantor
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Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Dec, 2002 10:11 pm
roger wrote:
Ah, yes, but given the near impossibility of proving a negative, how is everyone going to feel if the inspection report comes back negative? Was there nothing to hide, or has the UN team been outsmarted? I'm truly not expecting an unequivocal postive report - just suspicions that can almost be explained away.


My guess is that the wily Bushster is going to sucker punch Saddam by letting the inspectors wander around finding nothing for a while, then feed them the location of Saddam's "WMD's R Us" warehouse. Really, what do you think the chances are that our intel boys don't know the location of at least one Iraqi WMD storage site? That's all we need to refute Saddam's assertion that he has NO, absolutely NO weapons of mass destruction. Just one WMD site. Just one, baby. Just one.

Tantor
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Tantor
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Dec, 2002 10:12 pm
roger wrote:
Ah, yes, but given the near impossibility of proving a negative, how is everyone going to feel if the inspection report comes back negative? Was there nothing to hide, or has the UN team been outsmarted? I'm truly not expecting an unequivocal postive report - just suspicions that can almost be explained away.


My guess is that the wily Bushster is going to sucker punch Saddam by letting the inspectors wander around finding nothing for a while, then feed them the location of Saddam's "WMD's R Us" warehouse. Really, what do you think the chances are that our intel boys don't know the location of at least one Iraqi WMD storage site? That's all we need to refute Saddam's assertion that he has NO, absolutely NO weapons of mass destruction. Just one WMD site. Just one, baby. Just one.

Tantor
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Wed 18 Dec, 2002 10:54 pm
"The Arabs", or more correctly, "The Radical Armed Islamic Fundamentalists" still feel "They" defeated The Soviets in Afghansistan, and see themselves as having successfully withstood the onslaught of "The West" in '91, profitably engaging the Israelis through suicide bombings, and having dealt a crippling blow to The West and in particular The US on Sept. 11 '01. Not only do they think they CAN win, they think they ARE winning. They have no concept of the extraordinarilly target-specific hell that awaits Iraq should hostilities eventuate. Within hours of the first cruise missle launches the Iraqi military will cease to exist as an organized, directable fighting force. The greatest danger is that they will in their dying paroxism attempt to take their civil infrastructure with them, while unleashing WMDs, both against segments of their own poupulation and the populations of neighbors not limited to Israel.
To enjoy any likelyhood of success, a Western Assault on Iraq must needs be unparallelled in its suddenness, fury, and specificity. The insertion and deployment of ground troops, tasked with immediately securing or nuetralizing vital areas and assetts, must be massive and occur while the Iraqi Military Machine is still reeling friom, or even still suffering, the initial Air Onslaught. This "War" will likely last hours, perhaps a few days; it will not stretch to weeks or months. "The Peace", however, will likely require careful tending and close attention for a few generations. It is "The Peace", not "The War", wherein reside the greater challenge and deepest peril.



timber
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roger
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2002 12:13 am
Could be, Tantor. If they have them, and I believe they do, I want them found. Still, lots of high tech looking around in the Gulf War didn't find any mobile missile launchers, in spite of claims of being able to read license plates from orbit. It was not a real confidence builder.
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perception
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2002 09:15 am
Roger

Good point Roger---I remember it well---we were all euphoric over the successes as presented on CNN-----then as I remember it took almost a month after the first scud was fired to silence those launchers. This lack of capability was a great concern to me.

As you all know I am extremely proud of our military and it's fantastic capability and I also know we have made great advances in technology over the past 11 years so I am very confident of the outcome. I am not blind however to the possibility of very nasty situations involving chem and bio warfare. I am also uncomfortable with the knowledge that Gen Franks utilized a conventional type campaign at Tora Bora which allowed UBL to escape. I don't have specific knowledge of the causes of that failure but it was obviously a failure. Gen Franks is a very capable Commander but his brilliance is not yet proven.

Something else that causes great pride in our militay but yet astonishes me is how we find and retain the very high calibre of very bright young people who are willing to fight for their country even in the face of all the criticism seen and heard on college campuses, on forums, in the media, and else where. Most noticeably form Holllywood superstars who allow themselves to be used by the enemy which in turn allows the enemy to feel that they have support within this country. I know it has always been so but it still disturbs and saddens me.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2002 09:17 am
Tantor

Thank you again for a careful and thoughtful post.

You say 'virtually any conflict with Iraq is likely to result in nuke to Israel'...I'm sorry, but I just don't know what leads you to this conclusion, and you don't spell it out. I've given all the reasons I think it unlikely.

Re terrorism...it is from a position of weakness, yes. But that doesn't mean it is without deep consequences. In this case, it isn't conceivable that it will win, true. Of course, 'winning' isn't the problem here. The problem is what happened to the trade towers and what is happening in Israel...or even Ireland, or Sri Lanka or in London - a serious degradation of our quality of life from the acts themselves, from the fear they instill, and from the reduction of our own liberties by our own state under 'war' conditions.

You claim "Arabs respect force and are not fond of reason". That really should be backed up by something. Do you have a mid-east scholar you are drawing from here? Have you lived/worked in an Arab country? You understand this is a generalization and a derogation of a cultural/racial group.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2002 09:23 am
Tantor

You responded to roger with:
Quote:
Really, what do you think the chances are that our intel boys don't know the location of at least one Iraqi WMD storage site? That's all we need to refute Saddam's assertion that he has NO, absolutely NO weapons of mass destruction. Just one WMD site. Just one, baby. Just one.

And, if the inspectors find none, what would this mean? And what then? (Please don't say "They will")
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2002 09:32 am
Timber

Like Roger and perception, I'm rather less confident regarding events during an attack. The Iraquis were bright and imaginative last time in hiding assests for example. Likely, they'll be even better this time? As we agreed before, outcome is surely not in doubt, but fighting in modern cities...god, that could get really ugly, totally outside of any restricted weaponry. If our intelligence can't discern locations of WOMD, they will be missing much else as well. Resources will be spread, hidden, and US tactics not unpredicted.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2002 10:02 am
perception...you said:
Quote:
Something else that causes great pride in our militay but yet astonishes me is how we find and retain the very high calibre of very bright young people who are willing to fight for their country even in the face of all the criticism seen and heard on college campuses, on forums, in the media, and else where. Most noticeably form Holllywood superstars who allow themselves to be used by the enemy which in turn allows the enemy to feel that they have support within this country. I know it has always been so but it still disturbs and saddens me.

I saw Jeneane (sp) Garofalo on a news show the other day. She expressed her view ('too quick to war'), then asked the interviewer "Why do you have me here? Why don't you have Ritter?" In other words, she was taking the news producers to task for using ratings-happy Hollywood types instead of someone more knowledgable. It was a valid and admirable complaint.

But when he (ironically, given they'd invited her) asked her "Why should anyone listen to a Hollywood star, she responded "A person's job is irrelevant. I'm a citizen"

And that is the key point I'd make in arguing with you here. Which is more admirable, even necessary, in a free country...to follow one's leaders or to follow one's convictions. If one disallows a citizen to speak an opinion, gained as honestly as yours or mine, which happens to disagree with state policy (thus agreeing with an 'enemy'), then freedom is critically curtailed. Free speech seems to me to be most important on such topics, and in such times of deadly serious plans and pronouncements.

Internal conflict IS the curse and the blessing of democracy. Enforced unity of thought is the curse and the blessing of dictatorship.

There are, in my experience here in Canada, many intelligent people who move into the armed forces because we need them. For every professor I had who might think a military career objectionable, there would easily be at least one match who thought differently.

I'll try to make this point to you. It is no coincidence that dictatorial regimes, in taking or consolidating power, commonly head right quickly to the universities and start killing. They recognize that trouble will come from that corner because there, people are encouraged to question and to think for themselves and to not automatically accept authority.

And artists are not dissimilar. Plato, in his Republic, thought artists problematic to the functioning of his imagined state. And he's right. Hitler thought this too, of course. And for a similar reason...artists commonly don't comply with the status quo...they push it out, look beyond it, imagine other possibilities.

Where you are correct, and I don't argue this, is that in certain times and certain situations, times of severe and immediate emergency such as, say, a flood...then artists and scholars can get in the way. But they represent also an important part of what it is we try to save when we go to war or patch a dyke.
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perception
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2002 10:39 am
Blatham

Ah yes---I agree completely that freedom of expression is what this country is all about. The critical analysis presented by the media is the best thing we have going for us -----ordinary citizens.

What I want to point out is the very fine line between dissent by supposedly well meaning citizens like Penn, Sarrandan and most famous of all Jane Fonda(of Vietnam notoriety) who allow themselves to be used by the enemy to-----Provide aid and comfort to the enemy---by allowing the enemy and interested observers to think that the enemy has support within this country.
Dissent is one thing----aid and comfort to the enemy is another---and this is spelled out in our Constitution.

You and I have discussed this thing before and I doubt that I will ever convince of the "traitor" aspect of dissent but it probably comes from my military background knowing the danger of a traitor in our midst and the feeling of disgust and contempt that accompanies that knowledge. Being a spy and passing information that will cause the death of even one soldier is no worse that what Jane Fonda did in Vietnam. I guess I must tell why I am so contemptuous of Jane Fonda. This is quoted from the account of one survivor of an encounter with her in the Hanoi Hilton. "Four Pows were dragged out of their cages, cleaned up and present ed to then Miss Fonda. She addressed each one called them baby killers and shook hands with each of them. They knew they were meeting with her so had written little msgs which they passed as they shook hands, thinking she was actually on a mission of mercy.
When she had all the msgs, she promptly turned them over to the Vietnamese. All the men were severely beaten---three died as a result----one survived to tell the story. Now I ask all of you---Is that voicing your dissent or is that being a traitor. Her support of the North Vietnamese prolonged the war(this was confirmed by North Viet General after the war)and she caused the death of at least 3 men but yet she came back, married one of the world's richest men and was named one the 100 women of the century.
Three other families have no fathers or husbands. Justice?????
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dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2002 10:53 am
Plato suggested that some of the poets be driven out of the Republic because they had the power to weaken the guardians. Poets can make it impossible to have a war-unless they tell stories that agree with the "general line" established by the state. Poets have no metaphysics, and therefore no political line, make war impossible because they have the iresistable ability to show the guardians that what seemsnecessary is only possible. The danger of poets, for Plato, is that they can imitate so well that it is difficult to see what is true and what is merely invented. Since reality cannont be invented but only discovered through the exersise of reason-according to Plato-all poets must be put into the service of reason. But, alas, true poets lead no one unawares. It is nothing other than awareness of poets-that is, creators of all sorts-seeks. They do not display thier art so as to make it appear real; they display the real in a way that reveals it to be art. Plato's Republic was an invention. so were the theory of Forms and the idea of the Good. Just my opinon, i might be wrong.
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perception
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2002 11:40 am
Dyslexia

I just have one question----when the thugs appear at the gate---where do all the poets disappear to? They go out the back door to smoke pot and contemplate their navels. Just my opinion, i might be wrong.
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ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Thu 19 Dec, 2002 11:49 am
roger wrote:
Could be, Tantor. If they have them, and I believe they do, I want them found. Still, lots of high tech looking around in the Gulf War didn't find any mobile missile launchers, in spite of claims of being able to read license plates from orbit. It was not a real confidence builder.


We've been talking about something quite similar here recently. A couple of us were looking at an accident scene using a satellite image - then we looked at the image available from a webcam and saw one of our co-workers walk into a building to go to a meeting in Buffalo. There was some nattering about 'cool technology, eh' when someone asked how it was possible that we could see reasonably fine details of an accident scene from a satellite, see a door handle on a building from a webcam on a building a few blocks away and that missile launchers couldn't be found.
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