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The US, The UN and Iraq

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 04:22 pm
We Canadians produce THE VERY BEST potato guns IN THE WORLD!
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timberlandko
 
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Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 04:23 pm
perception, something which should be borne in mind is that Post-Cold War Europe has devoted far more than in the past to domestic economic development since the collapse of The Soviet Union, chiefly by utilization of resources previously committed to defense. Among the factors influencing European opposition to war is the very real question of being able to afford military action. The US on the other hand has seen no similar decrease in defense spending.

By and large, Europe, and NATO, are essentially impotent in a military sense. The bulk of actual military assets Turkey's request concerns are US-Built-And-Provided or produced under US license. Given the current Global Economic Condition, prosecuting a war would certainly severely strain, if not be beyond, European Means. Europe, lacking either military or economic leverage, sees diplomatic pressure the only available tool with which to attempt to shape and influence events.

The US is an unprecedented colossus, and as such cannot but be viewed with suspicion and even alarm by much of the world. The present situation affords The US unique opportunity to demonstrate herself meriting neither, and thereby gain far greater advantage for all concerned. That is a tall order, and I sincerely hope The US is capable of pulling it off successfully. I would very much like to see this matter quickly resolved and equivalent attention then be paid to the Arab-Israeli situation, the North Korean Situation, the India-Pakistan Situation, the general matter of Nuclear Proliferation, and the politico-economic instability of The Third World.

Of course, I'm completely unable to understand Europe's ability to look the other way while a war happens somewhere else than in Europe, even resisting efforts to get them involved in quelling disputes in their own back yard. I suppose there is some irony in that; The Marshall Plan which rebuilt Western Europe collaterally shaped a Western Europe passionately committed to the concept of the rejection of war.


And another thing which frustratates me is that there could be support for an 18th resolution the purpose of which would be to reafirm the UN commitment to the previous 17 rersolutions which spelled out Iraq's obligations under the terms of the original Gulf War Ceasefire. Over a period of a dozen years and through 17 resolutions, Iraq remains in non-compliance with the terms of that ceasefire. Neither diplomatic pressure nor international sanctions have produced substantive change in Iraqui non-compliance. To continue to do the same ineffective things in pursuit of a desired goal in expectation of improved results is disingenuous at best.

There has been no "Rush to war". Events now are propelled, even mandated by, the unfinished, but diplomatically then-convenient, matter of the 1991 War. The US, the UN, Nato, and Europe are being swept inexorably into the conclusion of the unfinished business of What of Iraq. The political expediencies of The '90s have precipitated the diplomatic crisis of the present. Unlike c.i., I cannot divorce the present from the past. I cannot see how doing more of what has not worked in the past may be expected to demonstrate any future success.



timber
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cicerone imposter
 
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Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 04:38 pm
timber, The millions of people demonstrating around this globe this weekend also understand our history, and many have been involved in the very arguments you make. None-the-less, they still demonstrate that this US war with Iraq is not acceptable. They all seem to see the same things I see; that Saddam is contained, and is not a threat to anybody. Most people, I am possitive, will change their minds if Saddam gets aggressive and attacks his neighbors in any way. But for now, we have "peace," and nobody is getting killed in war. Most importantly, innocent Iraqi's who also fear Saddam. Why the rush to war? The UN inspectors are just beginning their work, and the majority of people are asking that they be given more time. If war is the last option, it will be after all peaceful means have been tried. If Saddam attacks his neighbor, any neighbor, world sentiment will change over night. c.i.
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 04:42 pm
I just want to add that while an "Urban War" is a possibility, I believe that possibility highly remote. The Invasion will likely be very dissimilar to Gulf War, or to any other historic military action. I fully expect a new definition of "Overwhelm" in a military sense. Not only Iraq will be "Shocked and Awed", IMO.

I am far less confident of immediate and unqualified success in the matter of dealing with Post Saddam Iraq. Occupying and administering a nation is a very different thing from merely defeating that nation and replacing its administration. It is frought with much greater peril, and essentially independent of technologic prowess.


timber
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Tartarin
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 04:54 pm
Right on, Cicerone! Look forward to reading the responses.
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cicerone imposter
 
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Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 04:59 pm
timber, Agreed. We need only look at Afghanistan to see how intractable things can become, although initial assumptions were more confident of political success in a short time span - even with world community support. c.i.
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PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 05:04 pm
"I don't think anybody doubts that the United States could vanquish the depleted armies of Saddam Hussein. But the reality is - here we are 58 years after World War II. The United States still has troops in Japan and Germany. Fifty years after the end of Korea, the United States still has troops there."
-- Mark Shields, Capital Gang 2/15/03
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 05:09 pm
perception

That's really very kind of you!

(Actually, I appreciate it so much that I'll listen now the complete marches by Sousa [played by 'The President's Own United States Marine Band'] instead of the "Kleine Nachtmusik". And I will include you twice in my night prayers!)
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 05:15 pm
Anybody can see that you have a good heart, Walter. You can call me "friend" any time. c.i.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 05:16 pm
timber

For the most part, I agree with your evenly tempered post above. Where I do not is
Quote:
Neither diplomatic pressure nor international sanctions have produced substantive change in Iraqui non-compliance. To continue to do the same ineffective things in pursuit of a desired goal in expectation of improved results is disingenuous at best.
The Iraq of immediately post-war and the present Iraq are not nearly the same military entity, nor threat. The inspection regimen has been deeply effective, if not perfect.

Iraq is seen by most citizens outside the US (and perhaps half inside) to pose no imminent threat to any neighbour and certainly not to the US, despite the massive PR campaign to suggest that it does.

That this administration as started on a path does not entail that it must follow through. We all change our minds and we tend to despise the individuals who are so prideful that they cannot.

For the US to procede on some schedule for war happy for the military and preferred by one set of advisors or so as to look like they 'mean business' in disregard of such sentiment as exists so widely in the world is likely to have enormous costs to the image of the US itself.

For the US to step back, even if frustrated, and to display moderation and thoughtfulness is now, I believe, the only way she can avoid appearing as an increasingly arrogant and dangerous power. The international respect she will gain will not be small, and the future needs a strong alliance of free countries for the serious problems that will surely arise. Sadaam just isn't that serious a problem to warrant the immense fallout - in so many spheres - that seem likely to accompany the present course.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 05:27 pm
And there is that pesky oil business that keeps popping up... from The Boston Globe By Ellen Goodman, 2/13/2003

Quote:
The other night there was a perfect clash of cultures at an intersection in Volant, Pa. An SUV collided with a horse-drawn Amish buggy. The score was SUV 1, Horse 0. The clash was no surprise to those of us who have more horsepower than our Amish brethren but less than a Hummer. SUVs have, after all, become the target of choice for those who have finally connected the dots between the cars we drive, the wars we fight, and the globe we warm.


In the past months, SUVs have been ticketed, picketed, and spray-painted. A poster at an antiwar rally in San Francisco read, ''Draft SUV drivers first.'' The Detroit Project has run TV ads equating drivers to drug dealers. And the more spiritual among us have posed questions -- What Would Jesus Drive? -- suggesting the Expedition is a sacrilege.

On this highway of opinion, you would assume that when the president announced a $1.2 billion program to develop a hydrogen car, aka the ''freedom car,'' the anti-SUV crowd would be on its feet waving the flag. But in the days since the State of the Union address, many environmentalists have been waving warning flags instead.

Even Jeremy Rifkin, author of a new book promoting ''The Hydrogen Economy'' as the one true path to peace, justice, joy, and equality, has protested. Indeed, he called this reporter from his hospital bed right after having a pacemaker implanted to label the program ''a Trojan horse.''

Trojan horse? Horse and buggy? So would Jesus drive the ''freedom car'' or wouldn't he?

''Ah,'' said Rifkin oozing skepticism. When the Fossil Fuel White House proposes a hydrogen car, he says, ''you knew there had to be a catch.'' It turns out that the Bush plan should be labeled Catch Me If You Can.

Catch One is the little bitty taxpayer catch. This program gives its money to auto makers without any requirement that they actually make a hydrogen car. This is a reprise of the Clinton fiasco that plied the Big Three with money to produce a hybrid that would get up to 70 mpg. We did get the first hybrids with much better mileage -- from the Japanese.

Catch Two is bait and switch. The administration wants to keep our eyes on the prize of a hydrogen car by 2020. And keep our eyes off the present.

We have the technology now to produce vehicles that go 40 miles per gallon, saving 3 million gallons of oil a day. But the ''freedom car'' salesmen have fought against raising fuel efficiency standards and done little to support hybrids. The administration is actually suing California to derail clean car legislation. And they want to broaden the tax deduction for small businesses that purchase the biggest, fattest SUVs that ever knocked over a horse and buggy.

Then there is Catch-22. Excuse me, Catch Three, which could trap the energy future in the past. The promise of this new energy technology is that hydrogen is everywhere. But it has to be extracted from either fossil fuels or water.

In short, you need energy to get the energy. The question for the future is whether we'll use renewable sources like wind, sun, and biomass. Or will we use fossil fuels like coal? Would they even use nuclear power to extract the hydrogen?

Words like ''nuclear'' and ''coal'' didn't appear in the State of the Union address. But they did appear in the budget and the president's recent energy speech. Making hydrogen with fossil fuels and nuclear power, says the Sierra Club's Dan Becker, ''is like making a nicotine patch that's carcinogenic.''

War, as is said of hanging, focuses the mind. It's not just the folks holding up ''No Blood for Oil'' signs or putting Saddam stickers on the Explorer who are trying to get a better grip on the steering wheel. When you add the cost of protecting oil to the cost of buying oil to the cost of global warming -- the energy trifecta -- it's going to cost less to produce a fuel cell car that runs on renewable energy.

The good news is that this most environmentally hostile, oil-friendly president brought the concept of hydrogen cars to the public consciousness. The bad news, as Rifkin sees it, is that the White House may be ''using hydrogen to mask an old-fashioned fossil fuel agenda.''

Any serious energy plan has to run on two tracks, one using available technology to improve efficiency now, the other planning for the future. For the moment however, we have another culture clash. So far it looks like Trojan Horse 1, Freedom Car 1.
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HofT
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 05:37 pm
PDiddie - and let's not forget Clinton "giving his word" to Congress that troops sent to Bosnia would be out of there "within the year"; that was six years ago. At least the other cases you mention had no pre-set time limit, and the countries in question (Korea, Japan, Germany) pay for most expenses of the troops stationed there.

Blatham: got back today, having to cut short my trip to the Middle East. Sorry to hear about the horse-SUV collision; one thing I noticed in places like Saudi Arabia is that camels have priority over cars - maybe we can learn from those folks! Btw, everyone in the area considers military action inevitable; all Western embassies (incl. Canadian) are quietly advising their nationals to leave as quickly as possible, even the Emirates, south of the expected zone of hostilities. I saw no public announcements, though.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 05:39 pm
blatham, Another good article on this president's smoke and mirrors, and lies. c.i.
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trespassers will
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 05:44 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
blatham, Another good article on this president's smoke and mirrors, and lies. c.i.

ci - Assume I'm dense, and point me specifically to what things the President has done or said that you call "smoke and mirrors, and lies".
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 05:55 pm
During GWBush's SOTU speech, he talked about providing 1.2 billion for hydrogen powered vehicles. Taken from blatham's post above,
"On this highway of opinion, you would assume that when the president announced a $1.2 billion program to develop a hydrogen car, aka the ''freedom car,'' the anti-SUV crowd would be on its feet waving the flag. But in the days since the State of the Union address, many environmentalists have been waving warning flags instead.

Even Jeremy Rifkin, author of a new book promoting ''The Hydrogen Economy'' as the one true path to peace, justice, joy, and equality, has protested. Indeed, he called this reporter from his hospital bed right after having a pacemaker implanted to label the program ''a Trojan horse.''

''Ah,'' said Rifkin oozing skepticism. When the Fossil Fuel White House proposes a hydrogen car, he says, ''you knew there had to be a catch.'' It turns out that the Bush plan should be labeled Catch Me If You Can. Catch One is the little bitty taxpayer catch. This program gives its money to auto makers without any requirement that they actually make a hydrogen car. This is a reprise of the Clinton fiasco that plied the Big Three with money to produce a hybrid that would get up to 70 mpg. We did get the first hybrids with much better mileage -- from the Japanese. "

I didn't think further explanation was needed. If you still don't understand the smoke and mirrors, I'm sure others on this forum will be delighted to enlighten you. It's referred to the "trojan horse" in the article. c.i.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 06:04 pm
HoT

Though I am actually frightened of any mammal larger than a Bolivian tree shrew, I do prefer horses to SUVs in 99% of possible universes. Camels and I are as yet unaquainted but I think I might feel comfortable with them as they slobber just like my elderly uncle Leo. And I'm most pleased you returned safe and as sound as you'll ever be.
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cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 06:30 pm
blatham, To get a good dose of camel riding, go to Aswan in Egypt. They're really easy to ride. The biggest problem with riding camels is when they bend their forward knees to let you off - with nothing to hang on for dear life. Other than that, they're great fun. c.i.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 07:02 pm
ci

I pass through this life with little to hang onto. Camels should be ok.

This following quote is from the link I posted earlier...
Quote:
According to Ezra Rosenfeld, a spokesman for the Yesha Council, the low profile is by design. ''There is a time for everything,'' he told me and then sketched out a potential series of events for the next few months. ''Let's say there's a war in Iraq. Well, then the government can build 10,000 new housing units in Judea and Samaria'' -- the biblical names for the area that settlers prefer to use -- ''and it won't be on the front pages or all over the talk shows. So in the meantime, we can do this with the outposts. The government's hands are clean; they have no involvement. It's small potatoes, so it doesn't get covered outside of Israel.''
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 07:11 pm
Helen, some indications trend toward a Mid-March onset to hostilities, though I remain persuaded Early March will prove the case. If you are able to share, however discretely, relevant information, that would be appreciated. At present, most of my own "Independent Sources" are "In Theater", and the rest are "Inbound", resulting in a certain lack of objectivity. An "Outside Appraisal" would be most welcome.

Blatham, as to SUV's, I admit a contempt for shiny Cadillac, Lincoln, and Mercedes interpretations of the genre. Such machines are indefensibly wasteful when devoted to looking good while transporting groceries and soccer paraphernalia about the streets and highways of metropolia. On the other hand, my own SUV, though not as flashy, is quite useful in navigating the several hundred yards of gravel road separating my domicile from pavement given predictably recurrent local climatalogical conditions. My SUV frequently uses not only it's 4-wheel drive capability, but also it's bumper-mounted winch. My even larger and less fuel efficient 1-ton, dual-rear-wheel, two-axle-drive, dump-bed pickup truck finds gainful employment for it's ability to shove a 9'-wide plowblade through a couple feet of snow as well as for its abilitly to provide support for and transport to and from purely off-road equipment and locations. It is unfortunate the concept of "Sport-Utility" even came about. It does nothing to increase the actual utility of such vehicles, ands un fact merely adds to their cost fort those who require the "Utilitity". Of course, that has little to do with the matter here at discussion.



timber
0 Replies
 
timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Sun 16 Feb, 2003 07:19 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
blatham, To get a good dose of camel riding, go to Aswan in Egypt. They're really easy to ride. The biggest problem with riding camels is when they bend their forward knees to let you off - with nothing to hang on for dear life. Other than that, they're great fun. c.i.


Much closer than The Middle East is the American Mojave Desert, particularly around Indio, California. Camel-wrangling has bee a part of the local culture since the American Civil War Days, and currently enjoys tourist-attraction status. Just do a gogglesarch on Indio+"Date Festival". :wink:



timber
0 Replies
 
 

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