Bird Flu: human to human transmission confirmed in Indonesia

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Yeppers...

Study confirms human-human spread of bird flu

Updated Wed. Aug. 29 2007 10:43 AM ET

CTV.ca News Staff

A new analysis has confirmed that bird flu spread from person to person in Indonesia in April, U.S. researchers report in what appears to be a disturbing development for the infectious disease.

Health officials around the world have been closely monitoring the H5N1 strain of avian influenza spreading among birds from Asia to Africa to Europe.

So far, the strain rarely infects humans. But infectious disease experts are worried if it evolves so that it can spread easily from person to person, it may be the source of the next influenza pandemic, for which the globe is thought to be well overdue.

Since 2003, H5N1 has infected 322 people and killed 195. Most have been infected directly by birds. But a few clusters of cases have been noted for which no other explanation can be found except person-to-person transmission.

Biostatistician Ira Longini and colleagues at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle looked at two such recent clusters -- one in which eight family members died in Sumatra in 2006, and another in Turkey, in which eight people were infected and four died.

Experts were almost certain the Sumatra cases were human-to-human transmission, but were eager to see more proof. Longini's team claims they have found that proof, reporting in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.

Using a computerized disease-transmission model that took into account the number of infected cases, the number of people potentially exposed, the viral-incubation period and other parameters, the researchers produced the first statistical confirmation of humans contracting the disease from each other.

How the cluster likely spread

The cluster likely began with a 37-year-old woman, who had been exposed to dead poultry and chicken feces, the presumed source of infection. She then probably passed the virus to her 10-year-old nephew who then passed it to his father.

The possibility that the boy infected his father was supported by genetic sequencing data. Other person-to-person transmissions in the cluster were backed up with statistical data.

All but one of the flu victims died...............

Full Story Continues

And:

Humans Spread Bird Flu To Humans in Indonesia

Science Daily — In the first systematic, statistical analysis of its kind, infectious-disease-modeling experts at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center confirm that the avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in 2006 spread between a small number of people within a family in Indonesia. The findings, by biostatistician Ira M. Longini Jr., Ph.D., and colleagues, will be published inthe journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.Ads by Google Advertise on this site

Co-authors on the paper were biostatisticians M. Elizabeth (Betz) Halloran, M.D., D.Sc., and Yang Yang, Ph.D.; and epidemiologist Jonathan Sugimoto, M.H.S., a pre-doctoral research associate. All are within the Hutchinson Center's Public Health Sciences Division and Vaccine and Infectious Disease Institute.

The researchers based their findings on a cluster of eight flu cases within an extended family in northern Sumatra. Using a computerized disease-transmission model that took into account the number of infected cases, the number of people potentially exposed, the viral-incubation period and other parameters, the researchers produced the first statistical confirmation of humans contracting the disease from each other rather than from infected birds.

The cluster contained a chain of infection that involved a 10-year-old boy who probably caught the virus from his 37-year-old aunt, who had been exposed to dead poultry and chicken feces, the presumed source of infection. The boy then probably passed the virus to his father. The possibility that the boy infected his father was supported by genetic sequencing data. Other person-to-person transmissions in the cluster are backed up with statistical data. All but one of the flu victims died, and all had had sustained close contact with other ill family members prior to getting sick — a factor considered crucial for transmission of this particular flu strain.

In an attempt to contain the spread of the virus, the local health authorities eventually placed more than 50 surviving relatives and close contacts under voluntary quarantine and all, except for pregnant women and infants, received antiviral medication as a precaution.

"The containment strategy was implemented late in the game, so it could have been just luck that the virus burned out," Longini said. "It went two generations and then just stopped, but it could have gotten out of control. The world really may have dodged a bullet with that one, and the next time we might not be so lucky," he said.

Should a strain of avian flu acquire the ability to cause sustained human-to-human transmission, the results could be catastrophic, Longini said...........

Story Continues here

Bugger.

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<jaw>

Oh my gawd. Maybe it won't be as bad as they predicted....?

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littlek wrote:

<jaw>

Oh my gawd. Maybe it won't be as bad as they predicted....?

Well, last time it took the young and fit (1918 strain).

I suggest we stop exercising, smoke, and eat sugar laden fat.

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And, Indonesia is no longer the remote tropical paradise it used to be- it's a s\tourist mecca. It could spread from there to EVERYWHERE and fast.

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littlek wrote:

And, Indonesia is no longer the remote tropical paradise it used to be- it's a s\tourist mecca. It could spread from there to EVERYWHERE and fast.

Oh well.

At least I have a mask fitted for work.

This means when I catch it and die outside the workplace, it won't be a compensable work injury.

If any of the folk in my will are still alive, they're gonna be pissed off.

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Oh crap.

E.G.'s scheduled to fly to Japan in a bit.

I think I'll shred his passport...

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Well, are we both grim today! This isn't 1918. We have meds. We have tamaflu. So.... why's it still so scary? And where are the rest of the concerned a2kers?

0 Replies

sozobe wrote:

Oh crap.

E.G.'s scheduled to fly to Japan in a bit.

I think I'll shred his passport...

Ah, there's one.

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sozobe wrote:

Oh crap.

E.G.'s scheduled to fly to Japan in a bit.

I think I'll shred his passport...

Lol!

The outbreaks appear to have been contained.

Look at the dates in the articles.

It's gonna happen, but I don't see any reason to panic now.

Or ever, really.

Shrugs. What's the point?

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I made it in 1918 and I suspect I will get through this one too.

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littlek wrote:

Well, are we both grim today! This isn't 1918. We have meds. We have tamaflu. So.... why's it still so scary? And where are the rest of the concerned a2kers?

Hmmm...it's scary, if you get scared by such things.

I'll wait until it's here to be scared.

Tamiflu is of uncertain effectiveness, and we don't have enough stores.

A vaccine will only be available after the thing has peaked.

C'est la vie.

Prolly other A2kers are philosophical, too?

Or don't realize how bad it is likely to be?

It's likely to be pretty awful.

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As long as it takes out Bush it will be a good thing.

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gustavratzenhofer wrote:

As long as it takes out Bush it will be a good thing.

Bush'll be fine. He's older and unfit.

Sigh.

Look on the bright side! Maybe it will be like the Y2K bug!

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Bird Flu: human to human transmission confirmed in Indonesia

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