Obama's Early-State Troubles

Obama's Early-State Troubles

1 hour, 46 minutes ago

The Nation -- The new line on Barack Obama is that the senator from Illinois is not running his race for the Democratic presidential nod "by the book."

Translation: He is not touching the traditional bases, talking to the old warhorses and doing what is generally done to secure the support of the early caucus and primary state voters who have historically identified the nominee.

That's an appealing strategy, and it may even be a wise one in a campaign season that will see an unprecedented frontloading of the process. Perhaps Obama can run poorly in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and still survive to win in big-ticket states such as California, New Jersey and Texas when the February 5, 2008, "Super-Duper Tuesday" voting takes place.

Then again, by the time February 5 rolls around, Obama might look like damaged goods. It is not unheard of to lose an early contest here or there, but it is rare indeed to lose them all and then win the nomination.

And, right now, it is looking like Obama might lose all the early contests. His candidacy's appeal appears to be fading in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- three key "starting-gate states" for the 2008 Democratic race.

In Iowa, the first caucus state, a new American Research Group [ARG] polls show New York Senator Hillary Clinton with 31 percent, former North Carolina Senator John Edwards with 25 percent and Obama with just 11. That barely puts the Illinois senator ahead of New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson at 8 percent.

In New Hampshire, the first primary state, the new ARG poll has Clinton at 34 percent, Edwards at 18 percent, Obama at 15 percent and Richardson at 9 percent.

In South Carolina, the second primary state, according to ARG, it's Clinton 34 percent, Edwards 30 percent, Obama 18 percent, and everyone else -- including Richardson -- under 2 percent.

Those numbers are very good news for Clinton, who has garnered better and better poll numbers in key states since the last Democratic debate. They are encouraging for Edwards, who despite personal and campaign stumbles is still very much in the game. And they offer at least a measure of hope for Richardson that he really is breaking out of the bottom tier.

For Obama, the numbers are certainly not the death knell. But they ought to make him think about whether he might want to get a copy of "the book" and at least consider going by it a little more in the early states. It would be a mistake for the senator -- who has come a long way by breaking rules and pushing envelopes -- to bend entirely to the conventional wisdom. But he has to recognize that losing all the early contests could sap his campaign of the momentum it will need when the race goes national in early February.

The Nation