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The real poop behind Calif. Govenor recall effort

 
 
Reply Fri 18 Jul, 2003 09:13 am
Recall forces told how to 'trash' governor
Consultant's memo advises Issa's troops to 'kill Davis softly'
Marc Sandalow, San Francisco Chronicle
Washington Bureau Chief Friday, July 18, 2003

Washington -- A private memo from a prominent Republican strategist offers a rare glimpse at the bare-knuckle approaches being considered to oust Gov. Gray Davis, outlining numerous ways to "kill Davis softly" in the recall effort without turning the unpopular governor into a sympathetic figure.

"While it is important to trash the governor," reads the blunt, 17-page memo from Virginia-based communications expert Frank Luntz, "it should be done in the context of regret, sadness and balance."

The internal memo dated July 10 was commissioned by Rep. Darrell Issa's Rescue California committee, which has led the effort to put the unprecedented recall of California's governor on the ballot. The committee financed by Issa, R-Vista (San Diego County) and two other pro-recall groups say they have gathered more than 1.6 million signatures in support of their effort -- far more than needed to put the recall to a vote.


SEVENTEEN WAYS TO UNSEAT DAVIS
The memo features 17 recommendations aimed at undermining Davis' credibility and reassuring swing voters, who may not like the governor but are even more concerned about a possible replacement.

"This uncertainty about a replacement is going to be the single biggest hurdle for you to overcome," warns the memo in bold print on its opening page.

"Anyone who thinks this is a slam dunk is nuts."

After testing pro- and anti-Davis messages on focus groups of voters in Sacramento and Orange counties, Luntz wrote that the Democratic governor's low personal standing -- despite his re-election last November -- is among the recall's greatest assets.

"In a decade of political research, I have never seen an individual just re-elected with so much animosity from the voters," he wrote.

"The fact is, the more Davis speaks, the lower his popularity goes . . . the more he talks, the easier the recall becomes."

Davis, appearing Thursday in San Francisco, again expressed confidence that he'll defeat the recall effort.

"I've been written off more times than a corpse," Davis said. "The pundits have more than once underestimated our ability to succeed."

Roger Salazar, a consultant to the governor, called the Luntz memo a piece of "blatant political gamesmanship, a shameless attempt to sugarcoat what is clearly a right-wing Republican effort to nullify a legitimately held election."


EVIDENCE OF NATIONAL INTEREST
The involvement of Luntz, who was the pollster behind former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich's "Contract With America," underscores the national stakes in California's recall election, which appears headed to the ballot pending verification of signatures.

Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe spoke out against the recall Thursday in Los Angeles, and the potential upheaval has begun to attract attention from coast to coast.

Davis made no apologies Thursday for a lawsuit seeking to challenge the petitions that call for his ouster.

"Clearly, my allies have the right to bring this matter before a judge," the governor said.

Davis' backers have argued that many of those who helped collect signatures in support of the recall were from out of state and illegally registered to vote in California. A Los Angeles judge refused Wednesday to block the continuing effort to count and verify the signatures, but will reconsider the issue at a hearing today.

Chris Wysocki, a spokesman for Rescue California, said Luntz had been hired to conduct focus groups and would remain as an adviser to the recall campaign. Wysocki said that Luntz's suggestions had "cemented our hunches," about the best way to unseat the governor.

The memo urges recall advocates to focus on Davis' failed leadership, rather than policy issues such as "wasteful spending."

"Issues are less important than attributes and character traits in your recall effort," Luntz wrote. "Voters are more likely to throw out Gray Davis for his inability to lead than for allowing too much spending."

He suggests the recall campaign's message be boiled down to two words: "five years," and that voters be repeatedly told the governor had five years to keep his promise to improve the quality of living in California -- and failed.

However, the memo notes that an indictment of Davis' record "will earn you only 45 percent of the vote. You need to go further."

To win support from conservative Democrats and independents, Luntz suggests the campaign warn of the consequences of three more years of Davis' rule.

By repeating these messages, Luntz wrote, Davis' opponents "will destroy whatever's left of Gray's credibility."


UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AFTERMATH
The focus groups found only two pro-Davis arguments that resonated with participants: uncertainty over a potential replacement, and the estimated $30 million cost of a special election.

When Davis supporters touch on the uncertainty issue, his opponents should "talk about guaranteed failure," says the memo. As for the $30 million cost, it is suggested Davis opponents point out that the state's deficit is growing by more than $30 million each day.

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, who provided the memo to The Chronicle, ridiculed Luntz's efforts to blame Davis for the state's record $38 billion budget deficit, saying the same arguments could be made against President Bush.

"He (Davis) turned record surpluses into record deficits," she read from the memo. "Sound familiar, Mr. President?"

The memo urges restraint on behalf of Davis' opponents, warning that too harsh an attack will turn the governor into a martyr.

"Be careful not to blame everything wrong on Davis," warns the memo. "Voters know the national economy is weak and that other states are having budget problems as well. And there's always the risk of seeming too partisan or political."

"Acknowledge that Gray Davis isn't responsible for everything wrong in California and it will improve your credibility," the memo advises."The more you acknowledge, the more you can attack."

Luntz also wrote that most Californians "are unfamiliar with the recall process -- and this uncertainty means voters can be easily swayed in either direction."
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BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Jul, 2003 08:19 am
What is the real poop behind the recall?
What is the real poop behind the recall? I think it is more about emptying Demacratic coffers prior to the 2004 Presidential election. Everyone is focusing on the attempt by extreme right wingers to recall Governor Gray Davis. The Dems will have to raise and spend millions to defeat the recall. This means campaign money that would be directed toward defeating George Bush in 2004 will be used instead on defeating the recall.

I think the recall backers reason it is just an extra benefit if they defeat Davis and seat a republican governor. Bush wants to win California in 2004 and Karl Rove has figured out a way to do it.

Am I nuts, or is this real reason behind the recall?

BumbleBeeBoogie
0 Replies
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Jul, 2003 08:23 am
The state which desperately need funds will have to spend millions for this recall election not to mention the interim effect of having a lame duck Governor. A Republican talking about squandering a surplus...how ironic.
0 Replies
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Fri 25 Jul, 2003 08:24 am
...or hypocritical.
0 Replies
 
Santuzza
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jul, 2003 04:10 pm
Bill Carrick (Dem consultant) said ...What stategy may or may not be effective is not clear to anybody because there's no history,....
It's neither a candidate campaign or an initiative campaign,....a bit of both...

I tend to agree with Sharon Davis. Any initiative that starts with only 50 percent of support nearly always fails, because you've already gotten to the people who kind of like the idea. Then they begin hearing the negatives: The recall is completely driven by a right wing conservative; Going to cost taxpayers $30 million dollars...oh, and by the way if enough people get in the race, a governor may get elected with only 10 percent or 12 percent of the vote.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jul, 2003 04:27 pm
I am sad that Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamente felt he had to put the vote for who would replace him on the same Recall Ballot, instead of setting it up separately if the recall goes through.

This puts democrats in a position of having to gather folks to vie with the Republicans on the same page as the vote to recall.
0 Replies
 
PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Mon 28 Jul, 2003 07:21 pm
This is kinda funny:

Quote:


Total Recall

Since this was published, the Terminator apparently has decided he won't be back (though there's still some room to wiggle):

Schwarzeneggar Won't Run for CA Governor
0 Replies
 
PDiddie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2003 08:39 am
Arianna Huffington is in:

Quote:
This is the burning question for California progressives as they contemplate a Huffington run: Will it wind up as a horrible replay of November 2000, with the populist columnist cast in the Ralph Nader role, handing a crucial victory to the GOP? Bill Zimmerman, the veteran California campaign strategist who has agreed to manage Huffington's race, says no. Zimmerman points out that under the rules of the Oct. 7 recall election, voters can cast their ballot against the recall initiative and still vote for an alternative to Davis on the same ballot in case the recall wins. If Davis, whose approval rating languishes around 20 percent, continues to fade in the polls -- and a new internal poll by the California teachers union reportedly shows him sinking fast, with a recall winning by a 57-43 margin -- it would be "irresponsible not to have a progressive alternative on the ballot," Huffington said on Sunday.


Salon.com
0 Replies
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2003 01:42 pm
After the Clinton impeachment debacle and the cost to the taxpayers of the over zealous right wing scheme (orchestration in the negative sense of the word), you'd think they'd learn that they are being counter productive for their own cause. Stupidity knows no bounds.

Now we are learning that Nixon gave the order for the break in and I believe it only because one of my closest friends of the Seventies was high up in his administration and he didn't just hear that from one source.
Nixon has no descended to the bottom of the barrel of US Presidents, making Calvin Coolidge look like a saint.
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2003 05:22 pm
If governor wins, taxpayers may reimburse him
Article Last Updated: Tuesday, July 29, 2003 - 11:13:36 AM PST
If governor wins, taxpayers may reimburse him
By Steve Geissinger - Oakland tribune SACRAMENTO BUREAU

SACRAMENTO -- If Gov. Gray Davis survives the Oct. 7 recall election, the state constitution leaves open the possibility that taxpayers might have to reimburse him tens of millions of dollars for his campaign expenses, legal experts said Monday.

The Democratic governor has attacked the potential $30 million to $35 million cost of holding the special statewide election, qualified last week for the ballot by Republican-led forces, but has not addressed the reimbursement issue.

A provision buried in the California Constitution says that "a state officer who is not recalled shall be reimbursed by the state for the officer's recall election expenses legally and personally incurred."

If Davis beat the recall attempt and chose to seek reimbursement, he would have to file a claim with the state Board of Control, according to officials at the Secretary of State's Office.

The Board of Control has not been faced with a similar question of such magnitude, since no California governor has ever faced a recall election. There's also little case law to help officials interpret the provision, according to legal experts.

They said Davis would likely be able to recover any of his own money that he put into the campaign but nothing in the provision says specifically that campaign expenses have to be reimbursed -- or that the incumbent has to be reimbursed for campaign contributions from others.

"It certainly could be litigated," said Rick Hasen, a professor at the Loyola Law School in Los Angeles. "Even the amounts could be subject to litigation -- the allowable kinds of expenses and how that works."

Recall proponents said that if Davis beats the recall attempt, he should not seek reimbursement and should say now that he won't take that action.

"He's going around saying the recall election is going to cost $30 million. If he's so concerned about saving taxpayer dollars, he ought to publicly say that he will not seek reimbursement," said Rescue California spokesman Chris Wysocki.

Davis representatives said they did not know whether Davis would seek the money.

"It's not something he's concerning himself (with)," said anti-recall spokesman Roger Salazar.

Salazar said strategists haven't "looked into it clearly enough to even figure out the vagaries of it," but said he believes that if Davis wins, he could be reimbursed for campaign costs.

If Davis was reimbursed for some or all of his campaign expenses, it raises questions about what the governor would do with the money, since he is barred from seeking a third term.

"It doesn't say whether or not you could reimburse contributors, for example, or anything of that nature," Salazar said.

Election experts say Davis alone may spend tens of millions on the campaign. Combined with expenditures by candidates who hope to replace him and the groups with an interest in the outcome of the election, the total could grow to perhaps $100 million.

And the rules for governing the raising and spending of money for the recall -- like the rules for reimbursement if Davis wins -- remain unclear.

-- Contact Sacramento Bureau Chief Steve Geissinger at [email protected] .
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jul, 2003 06:23 pm
I don't know how true it is, but I heard someplace that the counties are gonna be responsible to pick up the tab for the reelection ballot. I think I overheard something on the radio about Los Angeles county is required to prepare it's ballot in 27 languages. c.i.
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Aug, 2003 10:37 am
Memo casts recall as windfall for Bush; hidden Bush agenda
Memo casts recall as windfall for Bush
Grassroots appeal to 'women against Davis'
Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer
Wednesday, August 6, 2003
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback

URL: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/08/06/MN114924.DTL

While White House and national GOP officials insist they won't get involved in the California recall, a memo obtained by The Chronicle outlines a Republican strategy to oust Gov. Gray Davis and help President Bush before the 2004 presidential election.

The memo by California GOP organizer Julie Leitzell, who heads a political action committee called CommonSense Direction, says the Oct. 7 recall election presents an opportunity to target disaffected voters -- particularly women.

"We will work outside of the campaigns and outside of the party," the memo to Republican activists says. "None of the candidates will be attending, as we want to make sure the media are steered toward the 'common sense women against Davis' angle."

Leitzell's memo clearly suggests the imprimatur of the White House.

"Mindy Tucker, former Bush campaign spokesperson and current Bush campaign operative in California, has the White House's blessing to set the record straight: The person responsible for this recall is sitting behind the governor's desk," the memo says.

Both Tucker and officials at the Republican National Committee denied Tuesday direct involvement and -- mirroring earlier statements by the White House -- said the recall election is "a matter to be decided by the people of California."

A high-level GOP official, speaking not for attribution, characterized the plan by Leitzell, a former communications adviser to 2002 gubernatorial candidate Bill Simon, as the work of an enthusiastic -- but unofficial -- party volunteer.

"To suggest that there is White House involvement in this particular activity would be incorrect," said Tucker, a spokeswoman for Bush's 2000 presidential campaign and former high-level Republican National Committee staff member who is now working full time for the GOP in California.

But, she added, "the president has given everybody in California his blessing to take a position on this . . . and as a Republican woman in California, I feel strongly that Gray Davis has been an awful governor."

Leitzell, reached Tuesday night, downplayed her role in a larger GOP strategy, saying she was a grassroots volunteer who had no connection to the White House or the Republican National Committee.

But her memo says Tucker, California Republican Party spokeswoman Karen Hanretty, and Tracy Schmitt -- formerly with the RNC and now with the Bush- Cheney 2004 campaign -- "will be coordinating seven simultaneous media- friendly events throughout California, (and) we have been asked to call the Bay Area's attention to just how much Gray Davis will cost us if he were left in office."

The memo states "the resulting issue-oriented and image-enhancing coverage will benefit the image of the Republican Party, the recall candidates, and will benefit President Bush as we remind the public of who is to blame for the mess in this state."

RECEIVES GUIDANCE
Though she said her work is separate from party operations, Leitzell acknowledged she has received guidance from GOP decisionmakers.

"Mindy (Tucker) talks to us occasionally, and she's there to guide us as far as what we can do, as far as organizing events," she said. "She's there for us, so is Karen (Hanretty) . . . and Tracy (Schmitt)."

With just four days left to file as replacement candidates in the recall election -- and a week before Bush arrives in California for two days of official business and fund raising -- the memo reflects what many Republicans say should be an active approach to take advantage of the recall in a state that has been dominated recently by Democrats.

While the White House and Bush's chief political adviser Karl Rove "don't have to get involved, they can tell Republicans: Send money, open up your checkbooks," said a senior Republican Party strategist. "Give to Tom, Dick and Harry. Give to (Hustler publisher) Larry Flynt, for all I care. Just give."

Said GOP strategist Sean Walsh: "The Democrats (in California) are going to come unglued, and it's going to bleed over into the presidential race. You can either let the recall drive you -- or you can drive elements of the recall to your advantage."

TRYING TO PICK UP GROUND
Walsh added: "If this recall is going to happen, and Gray has alienated women, you can't fault Republicans for trying to pick up some ground."

The White House and the Republican National Committee leadership have taken pains to distance themselves from the recall because "any involvement . . . would give the Democrats opportunity to tie the White House to this, and say 'it's a Karl Rove-driven conspiracy,' " said a GOP adviser to the White House.

White House advisers and insiders have stressed repeatedly that neither the president nor high-level party officials intend to endorse any candidate in the recall race.

One reason for caution: In the 2002 California's governor's race, the White House backed former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, only to be embarrassed when the moderate mayor was handily defeated in the GOP primary by Simon, a conservative who was then defeated in November 2002 by Davis.

TIMELY MESSAGE
But Republicans strategists -- including Tucker and Hanretty -- acknowledge the statewide recall will provide an unexpectedly rich, and timely, opportunity to get out the party's message on a stage before California's 15.2 million registered voters as they begin to turn their attention to the next presidential race.

Bush will draw that contrast in campaign events and official visits to San Diego on Aug. 14 and the Los Angeles area on Aug. 15.

"Nothing defines the difference in leadership between Democrats and Republicans than a comparison between the weak, failed leadership of Gray Davis and the very successful leadership of George W. Bush," Hanretty said. "And certainly, every day that Gray is in office is one more day to draw the distinct comparison with voters."

And Tucker said, "We've identified some areas where the recall will help us build the party -- not only for the recall, but also for '04, which everyone believes is important."
-----------------------------------------------------------

GOP's strategy memo seeks women's vote
Excerpts from a memo by California GOP organizer Julie Leitzell, outlining Republican strategies to oust Gov. Gray Davis in the recall election:

"How much has Gray Davis cost every family and taxpayer in California? How much more will the bill come to if he is left in office? Whether we were for or against the recall as a political strategy, it's important that we use this opportunity (and hot news hook) to present an image of diverse Republican women (moms, educators, business owners, students, working women) united around fiscal responsibility and against the job-killing policies of Davis' regime."

"We will work outside of the campaigns and outside of the party. None of the candidates will be attending as we want to make sure the media are steered toward the 'common-sense women against Davis' angle. The resulting issue- oriented and image-enhancing coverage will benefit the image of the Republican Party, the recall candidates, and will benefit President Bush as we remind the public of who is to blame for the mess in this state. We are working on getting a big-name female draw for each local event."
---------------------------------------

E-mail Carla Marinucci at [email protected].
0 Replies
 
Lightwizard
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Aug, 2003 12:46 pm
There will be far less ballot places for this travesty. Many of the common working people will have difficulty finding the locations. This is demonocracy in action.
0 Replies
 
 

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