The direct effect of the AIDS epidemic is shocking enough in itself. The examples are well-known, but the stats keep shocking me.
"In Zimbabwe, for example, a 15-year-old boy in 1983 had just a 15% chance of dying before reaching his 50th birthday, compared with a 50% chance for a 15-year-old boy in 1997 [..]. In Botswana, 90% of girls and 88% of boys who turned 15 in 2000 are projected to die of AIDS at current risk levels. In Zimbabwe and South Africa AIDS will cause the deaths of nearly three-quarters of males now age 15" (
The Consequences of Inaction).
"If it were not for Aids, the number of people dying at the age of 15-34 in South Africa would be dropping slowly. Instead, it has more than doubled and is expected to reach nine times its 1980 level." (
BBC News: Africa Aids Crisis)
But apart from the immediate explosion of death, what freaks me out is the prospect of its impact on tomorrow's society in Africa. It leads to an immediate economic collapse - those who'd work the land are sick or dead - which in turn will exacerbate poverty and thus, the impact of the illness itself and the social destabilisation it comes with - a vicious cycle.
And it also annihilates the very human and social resources that would be able to help stem the tide: "In Zambia in the first 10 months of 1998, an estimated 1,300 teachers died - two-thirds the number of new teachers trained annually [..] In 1999 an estimated 860,000 children in sub-Saharan Africa lost their teachers to AIDS" (
The Consequences of Inaction).
And what about the generation that grows up? "Before Aids struck, countries such as Botswana were prospering, with an average life span for its people of almost 75 years. But [now] 39% of adults have the HIV virus, which will kill them within nine or 10 years unless they receive expensive western medicines. Those who are dying are the breadwinners and teachers - the sexually active generation in their mid-20s to mid-40s. Vast numbers of children are being orphaned: so far, 14 million in the world have lost one or both parents to Aids. Whole countries' economies are being wrecked." (
The Guardian: Aids cuts life expectancy to 27). "UNAIDS estimated over 880,000 children below 14 years orphaned by AIDS in the country, constituting about 51% of all orphans of that age. Preliminary results from an on-going action research study reflect that communities perceive orphan care among the greatest burdens of the epidemic." (
Uganda AIDS Commission).
A doubling of the number of orphans, while at the same time the impact of AIDS mean there are fewer resources than ever - both in the village community and on the level of public/government care - to take care of these orphans. What will they grow up to be?
When the Russian civil war broke out, one seemingly side-bar element were the bands of teenage orphans roaming around the country. Not a few of them were recruited into the various armies, or constituted rogue armies themselves. Wholly apart from feeling pity for them - nothing is more destructive to a civil society's social fabric than massive groups of disrooted, embittered lone youths roaming around, doing whatever they need to do to survive. In Russia, the NKVD (the KGB's precursor) ended up recruiting among them, and later from the orphanages - since these youths, loyal to noone, hardened by a life, governed only by the law of the jungle, that had taken them beyond any sense of pity or empathy, turned out to be the ideal footsoldiers for Stalin's terror.
With life expectancy dropping to little over thirty, ten to fourty years less than it was a decade ago, an entire generation will grow up without parents, uncles or grandparents - without elders - or at best caring for them in their dying days. The erstwhile figures of authority in a community will now be - dead. The transfer of values, skills, traditions from generation to generation will be abruptly abrogated.
"As more and more adults die of AIDS, younger and younger adults would become responsible for managing government, including such key services as civil security, the courts, education, and health care". Younger and younger adults who would, at the same time, be decreasingly prepared for the job, since, "often, children must leave school to care for a dying parent or relative. Because AIDS consumes family budgets, fewer funds remain available for children's education [..] In Uganda, following the deaths of one or both parents, the chances of children going to school is cut in half, and young people who attend school spend less time there than before." (
The Consequences of Inaction).
What will that, in turn, do to the stability of African countries - how much further will the patterns of failing, fragmenting states, incompetent government and random violence exacerbate when its this emerging "lost generation" that will inherit the continent?
(See also
allAfrica.com: Top AIDS Headlines)