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Check Out Karl Rove's List Of Targeted 2008 House Races

 
 
Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 10:36 am
Check Out Karl Rove's List Of Targeted 2008 House Races
By Eric Kleefeld
3/29/07

So which Republican Congressional incumbents does Karl Rove, the "architect" of the GOP's big recent wins ?- but also the 2006 debacle ?- think are the most vulnerable? And which Democratic incumbents does he want the GOP to target?

The answer is contained in the PowerPoint presentation authored by Rove's office that TPMmuckraker has been dissecting today. As Paul notes, the overtly political briefing was given by a Rove deputy to personnel with the General Services Administration, which theoretically is supposed to be nonpartisan. (For more background on the slide show, see TPMmuckraker's ongoing coverage).

So who's Rove worried about? The presentation lists the following Republican House members as on the "Priority Defense" list:

Jim Gerlach, Pennsylvania
Vern Buchanan, Florida
Robin Hayes, North Carolina
Heather Wilson, New Mexico
Marilyn Musgrave, Colorado
Peter Roskam, Illinois
Chris Shays, Connecticut
Jean Schmidt, Ohio
Thelma Drake, Virginia
Barbara Cubin, Wyoming (Note: Rove also says that Cubin might not seek re-election.)
John Doolittle, California
Jon Porter, Nevada
Jim Walsh, New York
Deborah Pryce, Ohio
Randy Kuhl, New York
Mike Ferguson, New Jersey
Joe Knollenberg, Michigan

And which Dems does Rove think the GOP should try to knock off? The presentation also lists the "2008 House Targets: Top 20." Here they are:

Nick Lampson, Texas
Tim Mahoney, Florida
Jerry McNerney, California
Zack Space, Ohio
Baron Hill, Indiana
Chris Carney, Pennsylvania
Patrick Murphy, Pennsylvania
Nancy Boyda, Kansas
Joe Sestak, Pennsylvania
Brad Ellsworth, Indiana
Heath Shuler, North Carolina
Ciro Rodriguez, Texas
Steve Kagen, Wisconsin
Jim Marshall, Georgia
Joe Donnelly, Indiana
John Barrow, Georgia
Jason Altmire, Pennsylvania
John Hall, New York
Kirsten Gillibrand, New York
Stephanie Herseth, South Dakota
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Type: Discussion • Score: 1 • Views: 331 • Replies: 2
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kelticwizard
 
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Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 11:01 am
Quote:
John Hall, New York


Hey, he's the former lead singer for Orleans. You can't knock him off. Very Happy
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kelticwizard
 
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Reply Thu 29 Mar, 2007 11:13 am
Realistically, whenever you have a huge gain in one election like the Democrats did, there tends to be something of a fallback the next election. The fallback is usually nowhere near as large as the original gain, but it frequently occurs.

Somebody on the opposition has to be the most vulnerable, and Rove figures these are those people. It probably has very little to do with the performance of the people in office. It's just that if your margin of victory is small in a year your party blows out the opposition, you are likely in trouble the next election if the opposition is not getting blown out.
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