Prices Worth Paying?

While control of oil may be a consideration, I don't believe that that is the main reason Bush sent US troops to conquer Iraq.

I believe that the Neo-Cons around Bush, sympathetic to Israeli expansionists, have sold him a bill of goods that we need to neutralize Israel's enemies in the Middle East and create 'acceptable' governments and/or conditions in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia etc. as a prerequisite to any serious Israeli commitment to peace.

Strange then that the first and only places seized and protected by the armed forces effectively from the first day of the invasion were those relating to OIL?

John,

I don't think that's strange at all.

If the oil fields were not secured right away Sadam 's people could have done a lot of damage, set them ablaze etc as they did when they retreated from Kuwait twelve years earlier.

Regardless of what the primary reason was for invading Iraq, THAT would have been a collossal (sp?) headache. Not only because of the time and money it would have cost to put the fires out etc. but also because the Bush people seem to be depending on Iraqi oil revenues to pay for much of the cost of reconstructing Iraq.

HOW MUCH WILL THE IRAQI OIL PAY?


There are a number of articles pointing out the fallacy of the idea being bandied about that Iraqi oil will pay for EVERYTHING. The following disavowal seems to be from a reputable site. Note the URL.[/color]

http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/rsepResources/si/june03/middleEast.asp

Strategic Insights are published monthly by the Center forContemporary Conflict (CCC). The CCC is the research arm of the National Security Affairs Department at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the Naval Postgraduate School, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

PARAGRAPHS 4-6 -

The Debt Trap

The exact level of Iraq's debt is controversial. A generally accepted figure is $383 billion (Barton and Crocker, 2003): $127 billion in loans, including $47 billion in accrued interest; $199 billion in reparations and $57 billion in contractual obligations. Assuming the Arab Monetary Fund's (2002) population estimate of 22.81 million, this translates into a per capita debt of around $16,790. In perspective, this is about 10 times as great as Argentina's at the time of that country's economic meltdown in 2001. As another basis of comparison Germany's World War I reparations totaled about twice its gross domestic product (GDP). These debts were never paid in full; they proved to be an impossible burden. Iraq's debts amount to around 15 times its annual GDP (Francis, 2003). Iraq did not make any attempts at servicing the debt in the 1990s, but even if it had, its entire annual oil revenues during this period would not have met the yearly interest charges. Simply put, the country is bankrupt.

In short, not only is the country staggering under one of the world's highest debt burdens, but the situation is even worse because a significant proportion of loans made no contribution to the country's debt servicing capability. They were contracted for purely military or defense related purposes: $37 billion is in loans from the Gulf States ($17 billion from Kuwait alone) for support during the 1980-88 war with Iran. France is owed $4 billion much of it to pay for F1 fighters and Exocet air-to-surface missiles, and $9 billion is owed to Russia for purchases of MIG fighters and helicopters.

Many observers feel that unless Iraq is relieved of its debt burden in one way or another there will not be sufficient funds for any sort of meaningful reconstruction of that country's economy, together with restoration of the vital oil sector. An optimistic estimate of the country's likely oil revenues over the next decade or so is $22 billion per year, with a pessimistic forecast coming in at around $15 billion. Of this, around $11-$13 billion will be needed just to run the government and revitalize the oil industry. Restoring and revitalizing the oil industry through reconstructing its infrastructure and the development of new fields may run another $35 billion over the next 10 years (Powell, 2002; Alansrawi, 2001).

I wonder how long it wil take for Americans (and Britons) to realise that there is no escape route from Iraq (until the oil runs out) and that their forces are going to be dying in their hundreds for many years to come?

Because the Iraqis doing all the killing do not see themselves as terrorists but as freedom fighters.

I think you're right John even though the Bush administration is trying to peddle the idea that the attacks are perpetrated by Sadam loyalists.

The Bushies would like to think (or would like US to think) that.

However, Iraqi hostility towards foreign invaders in their midst is a more likely explanation.

Since the title of this forum is "price worth paying," my immediate answer is a "NO." Nobody asked us to free the Iraqis from Saddam. The justification this administration used to aggressively attack Iraq - the urgency and WMD's - has not been proven. Why must Americans spend billiions of tax dollars and human lives for a war that shows no benefit to the world? Who exaclty has benefited? For all of our sacrifice, the US surely has not. Why is our government seeking one war after another when the first conflict has not be resolved? Bosnia and Afghanistan still require our presense. This administration is now talking about Liberia at a time when all indications are that North Korea is building nuclear weapons and adding to their stockpile. More American lives and billions more for what, I ask? c.i.

During the last twelve hours of the Presidential definition of victory, three more American soldiers were murdered in Iraq.

Doubtless, their relatives will be filled with joy that the President and his friends in the White House continue to escape unharmed.

So far only the WMD and the supposed oil issues have been addressed here. Jorge has pointed out the basic truths concerning the oil matter.

I believe those who have been following the evolution of the new peace initiatives in the Mid East,;the increased political stability ion the Persian Gulf region;our increasing effectiveness in the war on terror; and the gruesome tyranny under which the people of Iraq had been living - would conclude that it has indeed been well worth the price.

george, "Well worth the price" for whom? c.i.

The US has sacrificed lives and billions of dollars. To what benefit for Americans? For the world? ci