The USA has declared war on Iran and Syria

Yes, Bill, the cartoon is a scream. A scream for reality to strike.

Which doomsday predictions?

The ones that Dick and Condi described whilst beating the drum for the invasion of Iraq four years ago. "We don't want to wait for a mushroom cloud..." etc or the ones they are illuding to now in regards to Iran? Somehow North Korea eludes their radar. With all the illuding and eluding going on I'm finding it all hard to follow, help me out and tell me how you see the situation unfolding in the next six months.

I'll do my Telescope to the Future after you do yours. or vice versa, it doesn't matter. The one most off the mark has to buy dinner in New York.

Joe(I should have made this bet with Ican711 six months ago)Nation

Well, i suggested a few months ago that these jokers (the Loose Cannon Crew) intended to go ahead with plans like this, and people on the left suggested to me that i was being a bit hysterical, and that even the Shrub wouldn't go that far. I started a thread long ago which outlines why it would be military madness to actually invade Iran, even if we weren't stretched as thin as we now are--anyone who cares to look at a map can see that a land invasion would be an invitation to disaster.

So, are these moves saber-rattling on an incredibly stupid scale, or do these clowns actually believe they can conduct a sanitized war from the air, and from long distance?

It's bad enough that these jokers are nuts--the fact that they are stupid, as well, makes them dangerous on a scale which i don't believe any other administration has ever approached. Tuchmann's The March of Folly doesn't even begin to account for this psychotic bunch.

now would be a good time to start smoking and doing cocaine again probably.... party a little at the end....

Appparently, while in college, George like to play Risk, the military game where you line your little red or yellow or blue pieces up on the borders of your opponents and then roll the dice to see who conquers the world.

He did not like to lose. he did not.

Joe(link tonight, I have to go run,)Nation

I think that is exactly what these people think...that they can fight a sanitized war from the air. They always have.

My big worry is that the military, if ordered to strike, might actually revolt...that the Chiefs of Staff will decide "no more!.

At some point, the republic that was Rome became a dictatorship...and finally an empire ruled by an emperor. There were lots of people in Rome applauding the change. If it happens here, it is evident there will be lots of people applauding it here also.

We are getting what we deserve. We...as a people...allowed this moron to become president twice. We honestly do not deserve better than what we are getting. And maybe, just maybe, it will lead to a much needed come-upance for us.

They were right that it would intimidate Iran and Syria, but they were completely and predictably wrong about how those two countries would react. Of course Iran wants the bomb -- it's in their national interest at this point. We have been intimating that we are willing to bomb them (I don't think we're suicidal enough to attempt a ground invasion) and Israel has indicated it is willing to nuke Iran's nuclear reactor sites. If I were Iran, I'd be working quickly to develop the bomb as a deterrent. I'm surprised Syria isn't also working on it.

Iraq will be in similar shape to where it is now. Kim will have rattled his saber a couple more times, to no effect or reaction from the Whitehouse. Bush will have threatened Iran a couple more times, but there will be no invasion. While strikes on the Iranian Nuclear facilities would be prudent, IMO, there is little chance Bush will have completed his due-diligence in seeking consensus (on deaf ears) to do so in the next 6 months. In essence, there will likely be no significant change in the next 6 months. Your turn.

I'd always wondered about GWB's judgement when it came to the axis of evil, terrorism, WMDs in Iraq, the invasion of Iraq, etc,etc ... but now I'm wondering if he (& his advisers) are insane. I'm serious. This is insanity. I can't believe, after the Iraq disaster, that such a thing could be even contemplated.

I'd always wondered about GWB's judgement when it came to the axis of evil, terrorism, WMDs in Iraq, the invasion of Iraq, etc,etc ... but now I'm wondering if he (& his advisers) are insane. I'm serious. This is insanity. I can't believe, after the Iraq disaster, that such a thing could be even contemplated. How can this be stopped?

So Obill is betting things will be the same which is either incrediblely naive or, this is the Middle East afterall where things have been the same for thirteen hundred years, brilliant.

My long and incredibly prescient view tonight. Right now I am late.

Joe(go go )Nation

What I'm betting on is the Ratio of Radicals. The Ratio of Radicals, which I just made up a minute ago so the idea is still gelling, combines a particular country's number of fringe group members and their power (whether on the left or the right) and compares it to the rest of that country's populace. As the ratio goes up, the increase of wacko thinking and activity increases. Right now the USA's ratio is low to moderate. Israel's is moderate to high. Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Venezuela all are in the high ranges. Iraq is presently at wacko-gonzo highness.

We, in the United States, have just gone through a series of years where the Ratio was extremely high. You can see how high it was when you consider that we launched a pre-emptive war in Iraq based on what we weren't sure of, in order to fight terrorists who weren't there, in order to plant democracy in the middle of the most sectarian part of a violently sectarian Middle East. Yeah...radical thinking at it's best.

So what about six months from now? Presently, some of the radicals in power are under pressure from the moderates in their various countries. Bush's surge is getting the pffhhttt even from members of his party, Ahmadinejad in Iran gets a little slapdown from his supreme leader and in Iraq some of the really crazy Shia leaders have been arrested. That should be good news, right?

It would be if not for another factor that I just made up and am calling the FallingForwardSpringback Effect sponsored by the folks who brought you the Bungie Cord. Just as a real radical is about to fall on his face, they spring back with a vengeance. Bush is already deploying the troops needed for his surge, look for Ahmadinejad to rally his people suddenly NOT to the God-given right to have nuclear weap(oops) power, but to the cause of those poor bastards in the Gaza Strip (Radical Ratio on Ultra) all while pumping weapons and money to the Shias in Sadr City, Kurdistan and, just to make the Israelis pissed, Hizzbollah Lebanon. Those Shia recently arrested in Baghdad will mysteriously reappear in their neighborhood none the worse for wear.

And the final factor: 1375 years. That's how long the Shia have been screwed out of what they see as their rightful place in Islam. Now's their chance. Since the Iranian Revolution, the Shia have been building their radical bases in Iraq, in Syria, in Pakistan, in Afghanistan, in Lebanon, in Egypt and in the Eastern edges of Saudi Arabia. They see the invasion of Iraq by the US as an opportunity to bring back the Hidden Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi. (He disappeared at age four in 873BE, the last Shia Imam. Shia talk about him as if he disappeared last week.) These are people who in martyrdom the absolute inerrancy of Islam and the destruction of Israel. They will give Bush all the shooting war on the Syrian or Iranian borders that he wants. Radical Ratio in Iran soars to HolyMoly!!

By mid-July, Baghdad will have devolved into greater chaos as Sunnis flee by the thousands to Kurdistan, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and U.A.E.. US forces will be in the process of withdrawing to Kuwait while, at the same time, striking targets within Iran and Syria that have been designated supply routes or depots for the Mahdi Army and other Shia fighting groups. Forces in Iran, not in the control of that government supposedly, will launch rocket attacks on the oilfields in Kurdistan. Maliki in Iraq will have been forced to step aside in favor of someone who is even more closely aligned with Muktar al-Sadr who will have not appeared in public since the first weeks of Feburary. The Iraqi government, such as it is, will be on the verge of disolving..

OBill and I will meet sometime in August for a late night steak dinner. There will be wine, good talk and wonderful food.

Joe(I won't be carrying a wallet)Nation

I glad you liked it, Bill, and the bill for dinner will be a lot, lot less than the 8.5 Billion Dollars we will be spending in August for this war.

I bet no one amongst the Revolutionary Guards who stormed the US Embassy in Teheran ever in their wildest religious ecstasies dreamed that a mere couple of decades later the USA would make Iran the premier power in the region.


Joe(I'll have the pitcher of Gray Goose Martinis and the Cowboy Cut Prime Rib. No potatos. )Nation

Actually...I loved it. Very clever! You are out-doing yourself.

(Do you know if the Pan made the move up town yet?)

No. I keep meaning to go over there and have a looksee.

How's the arm?

J

Hurts like hell when I do this!

Huh? The Pan is moving uptown?

Yup...about 10 - 15 blocks.

The ship itself...the floating dock that housed the food, bar, and upstair...the whole shooting match.

Probably is already in its new berth...but I've been incapacitated for a few weeks so I haven't been able to check on it.

Take a run down there if you get a chance and lemme know.

Hm. That's good news. Maybe I'll check into that this weekend if I get a chance.

And now back to your regularly scheduled war debate thread.

Oreder anything you wish. My only concern is justifying a trip to NY,NY; just so you can buy me dinner. :wink: