Karl Rove plans Bush Speeches to Stress Stakes in Iraq

Bush Speeches to Stress Stakes in Iraq
Bid to Boost War Support Will Emphasize
Adapting to Conflict, Not Gains on Ground
By JOHN D. MCKINNON
August 30, 2006
Wall Street Journal

President Bush will launch another major public-relations offensive to strengthen support for the Iraq war -- this time likely emphasizing the high stakes and changing nature of the battle more than the progress being made. The series of speeches begins tomorrow at the annual American Legion convention in Utah and will continue through the anniversary of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and on into the middle of next month.

The new campaign is aimed at framing the Iraq debate over what the White House considers the vital stakes involved in the war and reinforcing public sentiment that favors sticking it out. The speeches will be aimed at rebutting mounting public calls -- from Democrats and even a few Republicans -- for setting some kind of timetable for at least a limited troop withdrawal.

Still, the new series of speeches -- the president's third major round of Iraq addresses in less than a year -- might in some ways sound less upbeat than prior rhetorical campaigns on the issue. While past addresses often stressed improvements on the ground, that theme is likely to be less prominent in coming weeks. Instead, Mr. Bush is likely to talk more about the importance of winning and how the U.S. is adapting to the changing nature of the struggle against terrorism in Iraq and beyond, stressing the continuing violence in Baghdad and the recent Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

The speeches also could help Republican candidates in the fall congressional campaign, despite the flagging popularity of both Mr. Bush and the war. Advisers to the president believe -- and polls reflect -- that while most people say they are unhappy about the way the war is going, they still oppose the immediate withdrawal that high-profile Democrats increasingly favor.

The plans were outlined by a senior administration official. "Terrorism is on the minds of Americans, and as we go into the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, it's appropriate and necessary that the nation continue to hear about the state of the war and the nature of our enemy," the official said. "This is a long fight that we're going to have to sustain."

Jim Manley, a spokesman for Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, said last night that the changing White House rhetoric shows that "the administration's real plan has become one of trying to avoid defeat ... We need to take a new direction, one that involves an effective alternative to the current open-ended commitment that this country is facing in Iraq."

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld appeared to preview yesterday the rhetoric of the new administration approach, underscoring what he portrayed as the stakes in the war against terrorism in a strongly worded speech of his own, saying proponents of withdrawal are effectively promoting appeasement of "a new type of fascism" similar to that of Nazi Germany in the 1930s.

When Mr. Bush has, in the past, made an impassioned plea for support for the Iraq venture, he has sometimes made progress in boosting support among the public, at least temporarily, and shoring up backing among fellow Republicans. This time he faces the added pressures of a midterm election campaign, but also has seen at least a small uptick in his ratings lately.

The White House decision to highlight the war could prove problematic for a few moderate Republicans facing tough re-election campaigns who have been seeking to narrow differences with Democrats. For example, Rep. Chris Shays of Connecticut recently has begun advocating a timeline for troop withdrawals, in order to encourage stronger security efforts by the Iraqis themselves. Mr. Shays's Democratic opponent has called for a "full exit strategy."

Mr. Shays said in an interview yesterday that a new outreach by the president could be helpful to Republicans if the White House is honest about past mistakes and future prospects. But overemphasizing differences with Democrats could hurt, he said.

Mr. Bush "needs to bring the country together," Mr. Shays said. "I don't think approaching this in a partisan way helps."

The new rhetorical pivot could bolster Republicans in the November elections. Research by Duke University political scientists consulted last year by the White House shows that people's support for the war depends heavily on whether they think it is winnable. By contrast, their likelihood of supporting Republican candidates depends more on whether they think the war is a good idea.

"Their strategy makes sense if they're focused on the fall elections," Christopher Gelpi, one of the Duke professors, said yesterday. However, he noted that if Mr. Bush de-emphasizes the war's progress too much, he could risk eroding long-term support for the conflict.

Perhaps anticipating Democratic attacks that Mr. Bush is portraying the war in a partisan way, Republicans argue that Democrats have played politics with the war for months. Mr. Bush is likely to point out that the day-to-day conduct of the war is being run by military officers, and not by the White House.

Mr. Bush gave his first major series of speeches to boost sagging support for the war in November and December. In those he argued that the war is winnable and released a "Strategy for Victory." In the first speech, at the U.S. Naval Academy in Annapolis, Md., he argued that "Iraqi forces have made real progress" and that "they're helping to turn the tide of this struggle in freedom's favor."

A second series of speeches beginning in March elaborated on the progress in Iraq. In the first of those speeches, on March 13 at George Washington University, Mr. Bush was able to note that in the wake of the bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra, "we saw the capability of the Iraqi security forces [and] the determination of many of Iraq's leaders" in preventing an all-out civil war.

But since then, Iraqi security forces have proved unable to prevent major outbreaks of violence in Baghdad and elsewhere, and U.S. troops eventually were put back in charge of security in the capital. And the threat of civil war has only grown, as attacks on civilians have escalated. That has made it more difficult for Mr. Bush to make the case for the success of the war effort.

Instead, he is now returning to the simple urgency of the fight and the importance of not abandoning it.

To make that point, Mr. Bush recently has increasingly emphasized that if the U.S. withdraws from Iraq, the "enemy will follow us home," as he said at a fund-raiser for former football star Lynn Swann's Pennsylvania gubernatorial campaign.