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Tue 22 Aug, 2006 05:44 pm
I'm not a big believer in polls,but I found this very interesting...
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/politics/whispers/articles/060820/28whisplead_2.htm
Quote:Sorry, Hillary. And Big John, you might have missed your chance in 2000. That's because a new and innovative poll from John Zogby about 2008 presidential candidates finds former Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich way out front of fellow GOP-ers like Sen. John McCain and also finds moderates like former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner far ahead of libs like Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Here's the unusual thing about the Zogby poll released to Whispers: When questioning likely primary voters, only brief biographies and not names-were given. In other words, voters picked the one with the best experience. Without her name recognition working for her, Clinton came in a miserable sixth out of 10. "It looks like the Democrats want to grab the middle," says Zogby, who says outside-the-beltway Democrats lean moderate. Surprises on the GOP side: Harsh immigration critic Rep. Tom Tancredo ranks fourth, showing the power of the anti-immigrant issue. Is the poll important? Big time. In 1999, Zogby's "blind bios" poll identified "maverick" McCain as a very attractive candidate in primary states long before he almost knocked off George W. Bush. The Democratic order and percentage: Warner, 14.8; retired Gen. Wesley Clark, 14.2; Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold, 12.2; Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, 11.1; former Sen. John Edwards, 10.4; Clinton, 5.6; New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, 5.3; former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel, 4.9; Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, 4.9; Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, 3; Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, 2.8. The GOP rankings: Gingrich, 21.4; McCain, 13.3; former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 11.2; Tancredo, 9.9; Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel, 6.1; Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 5.8; Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, 5.6; Virginia Sen. George Allen, 4.9; Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback,4.3; Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 3.8; New York Gov. George Pataki, 2.8.
I do find these results interesting,to say the least.
If Gingrich ever gets elected, I will give up following politics completely.
What I don't understand, is "Newt" really his first name....?
What a weird poll, though. One would certainly hope that people would vote according to someone's accomplishments and nothing else, but that's not how people vote. Name recognition is important. If Gingrich doesn't do nearly as well in polls with his name attached, that has pretty serious implications for whether "It's Gingrich's to lose in 2008."
I think that's known as 'generic polling' and I've seen a couple of them recently. Interesting, but not at all sure that type of polling has much predictive value.
Yeah. The "brief biographies" seem way too easy to manipulate, too. If they're brief, they're heavily edited, and the way they're edited (what's included, what's left out) could have a big impact.
old europe wrote:What I don't understand, is "Newt" really his first name....?
His full first name is Newton, after his father.