HEZBOLLAH AND ISRAEL WIDEN THE CONFLICT

Yeah, Lash was kidding and I was only half-kidding but above Bill Kristol, you remember Bill, right, he's one of the ones who thought up this swell cakewalk slamdunk of an idea to plop a democracy down in sectarian Iraq, he says it IS a great time to go bang bang on Iran's nuclear sites.

AND, here's the good part, we don't have to do it. We let the Israelis do it. (Okay, so maybe we slide the satellite photos, telemetry and signals intelligence we've got across the table to them. Oh, and the GPS co-ordinates for the smart bombs. That's what taking until Tuesday.)

Yes, there will be repercussions. But don't worry osso, Bill(I've got lot's of great ideas)Kristol says they will be healthy ones.

I feel better already.

Joe(set your alarms for the early hours Teheran time)Nation

I disagree with this paragraph. The Wahhabi came about long before the Iranian revolution. It's an extremely conservative version of the Muslim religion that would persist today regardless of Iran. The West is a bigger threat to the Muslim religion than Iran in the eyes of conservative Muslims. The Wahhabi schools still teach children in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and other parts of the world to hate America.

This whole line of logic is BS.


SOURCE

Note on CNN coverage...

Boehlert

Additionally, the Ibn Saud clan and the Wahabbi clan intermarried in the early 18th century, which is a dynamic the royal family in Saudi Arabia cannot ignore, even if naive western commentators miss that (they miss so much because they don't do basic study).

There is no way that Israel has the ability to successfully attack Iranian nuclear sites, and to do so, would be obliged to violate the air space of Syria, or Jordan or Iraq, and very likely, two of those or all three. The effect of such an attack would be negligible, the more so as idiotic conservative sabre-rattling in the US has probably alreay convinced the Persians to put all crucial operations deep underground.

Hezbollah has a good deal of support in the Lebanon because they are a Shi'ite organization in a nation with a large Shi'ite community. Even though they are considered extremist by much of the population, comparing them to the KKK is just silly. Rather, one might see them as the ultra-conservative, or ultra-radical wing of a western political party, with the caveat that in the middle east, such organizations are commonly heavily armed. Jordan expelled the Palestinians (specifically, the PLO) for exactly that reason in 1970--King Hussein did not intend to have a large, heavily-armed, "extra-national" faction in his nation. How much worse is the situation in the Lebanon, in which the Hezbollah Shi'ites are native to the nation. I don't claim that i can see the solution--i am saying that hysterical military escalation by Israel is not a good solution, and is not going to succeed in destroying an organization native to the Lebanon. Radio reports describe a nation paralyzed by the situation, with people unable to go to work, because they dare not leave the air raid shelters. At th G8 conference, Kofi Annan and Tony Blair are talking about an international peace-keeping force. For all the unpleasant possibilities which that conjures, it might be better than the violence now spiralling out of control. Many sources report Israeli armor massing on the Lebanese border. I doubt very much that Syria would long remain aloof if a situation arose such as the one which lead them to enter the Lebanon in the civil war thirty years ago.

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CBC radio reports that seven membes of a Canadian family from Montreal who were trapped in the Lebanon while on vacation were killed in an Israeli attack (some reports have said a missle attack, others an air raid). The Canadian government have leased two ships to pick up Canadian citizens, from the beach if necessary.

I believe one of the reasons Setanta started this thread is because he immediately saw how this conflict has an alarming potential to spread.

Joe N said



True since it appears the United States foreign policy is to do whatever Israel decides.

Finn said




True. The President of Iran wrote a long and very interesting letter to the President of the United States, which I seem to recall was treated with contempt.


Finn also said



This is not true. This conflict started through the capture of 3 Israeli soldiers. Israel wants them back. Meanwhile Israel holds over 8000 Palestinian or Arab prisoners. Hezbollah want a prisoner exchange, (its been done before) but the Israelis refuse. Instead they started a war against Lebanon.

The war could end now if the Israelis wanted it. But they dont. Israel wants the opposite. They want the United States to attack Iran before they get nuclear weapons, and the current situation is their way of engineering such a strike, thus getting the United States to comply with Israeli foreign policy.(See above)

What Steve said.

For all of my ego on other matters, i don't often toot my own horn on having a "fashionable" or "popular" thread. I would like to point out in this case, though, that i immediately saw an alarming potential for escalation, and so started this thread. Since that time, it appears that other members here have become aware of the situation, and that it is potentially very dangerous. But with Americans, and especially the politically conservative, it appears that you have to hit them over the head with a situation before they notice it.

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CBC are now saying that it was six Canadians killed, and that it was the result of an Israeli air strike. An interesting comment was made by a Canadian of Lebanese descent (he is speaking on CBC as i type), that he and his family had moved back to the Lebanon (his children were born in Canada, and didn't even know the recent history of the Lebanon) after the Syrian withdrawl, in the mistaken belief that the Lebanon would now be stabe.

"Believe me, when i moved back here one year, year and a half ago, i never, ever believed this would ever happen again."

"Maybe i made a big mistake that time. I did not know this would happen."

They just played an interview of Peter McKay, the foreign minister, from yesterday, at which time he stated that Canada is trying to secure safe passage for ships to evacuate Canadian citizens. He made no further comment. One assumes that they need safe passage from Israeli war ships, and a safe zone from Hezbollah. The gentleman referred to above who was just interviewed said they cannot evacuate via Syria, because the Israelis have destroyed all the bridges in the Bekaah Valley, and no traffic can move into Syria.

Israel's Moment, the Free World's Gain
By Lawrence Kudlow

All of us in the free world owe Israel an enormous thank-you for defending freedom, democracy, and security against the Iranian cat's-paw wholly-owned terrorist subsidiaries Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel is doing the Lord's work. They are defending their own homeland and very existence, but they are also defending America's homeland as our frontline democratic ally in the Middle East. Commentary's Norman Podhoretz was exactly right when he coined the term World War IV to describe the global terror conflict. Repeatedly hostile actions by the totalitarians in Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, and North Korea are all connected. So are the recently foiled terrorist-cell-block plans in Canada, the U.S., London, and elsewhere around the globe. We are fortunate to have a staunch ally like Israel to assist us in this fight.

As Ben Stein recently put it, "God bless Eretz Israel. God bless Israel for having the cojones to stand up for herself." But supporters of freedom and democracy must also say a prayer for President George W. Bush, who has steadfastly stood up for Israel. He outright refuses to publicly ask Israel to stand down.

As expected, France, Spain, and Italy have responded to recent events with pacifist posturing. In the smoking rooms of Western Europe and around the coffee tables of the United Nations, we hear more lofty calls for restraint. But the terrorist groups that started this fight have shown no restraint. Rather than pull back, Israel should move forward, cleaning out all the terrorist sanctuaries, training camps, weapons caches, and missile systems it can find.

Remember, it was Israel that pulled out of southern Lebanon and Gaza. Later, when terrorist gangs kidnapped Israeli soldiers, Israel appropriately fought back. That is what sovereign nations do, and Israel's recent military actions deserve our unyielding support. Israel has the right to put the terrorist armies of Hezbollah and Hamas out of business.

Importantly, so called moderate Arab governments Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Dubai, and the United Arab Emirates are not taking the Hezbollah or Hamas side. This is undoubtedly a function of the American effort in Iraq, where a forward beachhead has been established for liberalization and representative government. No matter how difficult that effort remains, the center of gravity in much of the Middle East is shifting away from totalitarianism and toward some form of homegrown democracy.

And we cannot delude ourselves about the role of Iran in recent Middle East events. Iran sent Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel in the hope of inflaming the Middle East against Israel and the United States. The plan was to divert attention away from G-8 and UN sanction efforts to derail Iran's nuclear weaponization program. Iran miscalculated.

Israel's next front may indeed be Syria, which is also directed by Iran and is a safe haven for terrorists -- including former Saddam Baathists and others who move freely between Syria and Iraq in order to cause trouble. Many experts still believe that Syria is safe-harboring Saddam's unfound inventory of weapons of mass destruction.

According to news reports out of London, senior Pentagon sources say Israel has given Syria 72 hours to bring about the release of the IDF troops kidnapped by Hezbollah. Many strategists also believe Israel should clean out the numerous missile sites, military camps, and terrorist sanctuaries that exist in Syria. It is doubtful the U.S. will interfere. Now is the time to really put the squeeze on Syria's dictator, Baby Assad.

Back at home, doomsayers are virtually blaming Israel for higher oil prices, slumping stocks, and a potential recession. But there will be no recession. The jittery oil-price jump is a short-term event, and when military actions are completed in the Middle East, prices will plummet. If need be, the U.S. can tap into 688 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, at least two months of import protection. And if Iran attempts to stop the oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz, it will take the U.S. and Israel about 35 minutes to knock out the entire Iranian navy and air force.

Recession? American businesses have never been healthier or more profitable. Lower tax rates have spurred a tremendous boom in private investment, while new job hires continue to lift family incomes. Today's wartime uncertainty and geopolitical risk will not turn these fundamentals around. Indeed, strong world economic growth will continue, spurred by the spread of the very-American-style free-market capitalism that the Axis of Evil and its terrorist divisions are unsuccessfully trying to overthrow.

When the dust clears the world will applaud Israel for its courage. Sensible freedom-loving people everywhere will realize that Israel's furious response in the face of senseless terrorist attacks will have made the world a better place.

In fact, we are all Israelis now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/07/israels_moment_the_free_worlds.html

Israel has confirmed that they've entered the Lebanon with armored forces. (Which likely explains why they destroyed the bridges in the Bekaah Valley.)

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There are several reports of efforts to evacuate foreign nationals from the Lebanon.


Aust consults Israel on Lebanon evacuation[/b]

Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer says the Federal Government is negotiating with Israel about the best way to evacuate Australians stuck in Lebanon.

He says there are between 4,000 and 5,000 Australians registered with the embassy in Lebanon, and those who are most desperate to leave will be evacuated first.

The Australian Broadcasting Company (ABC) report.

Asia-Pacific officials work on evacuation of citizens from Lebanon

SYDNEY, Australia (AP) -- Officials across the Asia-Pacific region were working Monday to find an evacuation route for their citizens trapped in Lebanon by Israeli airstrikes.

The report of The Manilla Bulletin Online.

Greece, Cyprus help in Lebanon Evacuation

Giorgos Karahalis/Reuters: Protesters burnt an Israeli flag outside the Israeli Embassy in Athens on Saturday. About 300 immigrants from Arab nations joined a march to the embassy, organized by Muslim migrants and Greek anti-globalization activists, to protest attacks on Lebanon. The rally blocked traffic for two hours but ended peacefully.

Kathimerini (Greek News Service, English Edition) report.

17 dead in Lebanon after Isreal steps up attacks

(This is a general report on the sitation--well into the article is news of evacuation plans, with the contention that there are 10,000 Britons in the Lebanon.)

Israeli fighter bombers targetted Lebanese infrastructure today, setting Beirut's port ablaze and hitting a Hizbollah stronghold in attacks that killed at least 17 people. Hizbollah retaliated by firing rockets that flew farther into Israel than ever before.


The Independent, online report.

Bulgaria may start Lebanon evacuation Monday Evening

Bulgaria may start Lebanon evacuation Monday evening

SOFIA (bnn)- The lists with the Bulgarian national who want to leave Lebanon are being précised, the Foreign Ministry spokesman Dimitar Tsanchev announced on Monday.

There is only one route for traveling and it is by sea through Cyprus, he added. Tsanchev denied the information there were Bulgarian nationals with unknown location. In Tsanchev's words the embassy in Beirut has no data about such cases but there is problem with unregistered persons from those 500 Bulgarian nationals. They find it difficult to reach Beirut as many roads are destroyed. 15 more people are dead after the Sunday night Israeli assaults. There is no data about registered dead or injured Bulgarians.

(That is the entire text of the Bulgarian News Network's online report.)

God bless Israel, the world's greatest ally.

I was nearly sick reading that piece by Kudlow. Everything is clearly working to plan.

"We are all Israelis now"

Who the hell does this man think he is?

I'll gag if I hear the word "disproportionate" again.

God bless Israel. The world's greatest ally.

Dear bretheren, the war with Israel is over

Your government, your social institutions, your schools, and your economy are all in ruins.

Your young people are growing up illiterate, ill, and bent on rites of death and suicide, while you, in effect, are living on the kindness of foreigners, including America and the United Nations.

Every day your officials must beg for your daily bread, dependent on relief trucks that carry food and medicine into the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, while your criminal Muslim fundamentalist Hamas government continues to fan the flames of a war it can neither fight nor hope to win.

In other words, brothers, you are down, out, and alone in a burnt-out landscape that is shrinking by the day.

What kind of struggle is this? Is it worth waging at all?

More important, what kind of miserable future does it portend for your children, the fourth or fifth generation of the Arab world's have-nots?

We, your Arab brothers, have moved on.

Those of us who have oil money are busy accumulating wealth and building housing, luxury developments, state-of-the-art universities and schools, and new highways and byways.

Those of us who share borders with Israel, such as Egypt and Jordan, have signed a peace treaty with it and are not going to war for you any time soon.

Those of us who are far away, in places like North Africa and Iraq, frankly could not care less about what happens to you.

Only Syria continues to feed your fantasies that someday it will join you in liberating Palestine, even though a huge chunk of its territory, the entire Golan Heights, was taken by Israel in 1967 and annexed.

The Syrians, my friends, will gladly fight down to the last Palestinian Arab.

Before you got stuck with this Hamas crowd, another cheating, conniving, leader of yours, Yasser Arafat, sold you a rotten bill of goods - more pain, greater corruption, and millions stolen by his relatives - while your children played in the sewers of Gaza.

The war is over. Why not let a new future begin?

God bless Israel, the world's greatest ally.

What gross bucket of barf is this? Israel is one of the leading causes of the Middle East conflict. It ignores the UN and ignores America when it feels like it. And it pays a lot to our politicians to gain their support.

I can't connect to the link that SS provided with that last bucket of drivel which s/he poured on this thread. At all events, that refers to Hamas and the Palestinians, and not to the Lebanon and Hezbollah. To the conservative dim-wits, all Muslims are Arabs; in fact, of course, the people of the Lebanon are not ethnically Arab.

Israel created the Lebanese civil war of more than 30 years ago, and that was before there were any Islamic revolution in Iran. There is no doubt that Persian Revolutionary Guards helped to establish Hezbollah, and continue to fund it. That should not be wondered at by anyone--Iran is the only Shi'ite nation in the world (although Iraq may become a Shi'ite dominated nation if they ever actually have democracy rather than the "democracy-lite" we have shoved down their collective throats)--although estimates vary a good deal, Shi'ites (Twelver sect--don't worry, i'm not going to clog the thread with an explanation of that) represent from 30% to 40% of the entire population (4.5 million, 2006 estimate, according the Central Admininstration of Statistics, Lebanese Republic). Christians, mostly Maronites, with Greek Orthodox a distant second, represent about 30% of the population. Druze and Sunni Muslims and fringe Christian groups such as Catholics, Syriac, Nestorian and Armenian (both Orthodox and Catholic in those categories) and "Sevener" Shi'ites make up the rest of the population.

Therefore, it is not suprising that Persians came to the aid of a nation in which Shi'ites of their own confession represent the largest confessional group. Hezbollah does not appear until 1982, after the civil war was well underway, and after the Mullahs were well-established in Iran. No Israeli invasion, no civil war; no civil war, no Hezbollah--the Israelis (and a hell of a lot of innocent civilians) are reaping what they have sown.

We get this horseshit all the time from the right. Israel creates impossible situations, escalates to full-scale military violence in response to nightmares they have created themselves, and then we are expected to swallow whole drivel about the heroic Israelis defending the world from dangerous fanatics.

Dangerous fanatics created by the dangerous fanatics who run the Isreali governments.

OK, i'll clog the thread with an explanation. More information only enlightens.

Ali, first cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet was the great Holy Warrior in the early days of Islam. He invaded Persia, where he defeated the Persians in the Mother of All Battles. He was also the fourth Caliph, in the first group of Caliphs, known as the Orthodox Caliphs. He is the founder of Shi'ism--shi'ah means to spread, to proselytize. Islam, like all wide-spread religions, fragmented, and Shi'ism is the major, original splinter sect. The Shi'ites themselves split after Ali's death. Ali is considered the first "true" Imam (which means leader, but is usally used in the sense of a teacher), and the belief is that after a succession of "true" Imams, Ali will return, at the end of days. Obviously there is great scope for theological dispute (and, of course, warfare) over who is or is not a "true" Imam. The majority sect of Shi'ites believe that there will be twelve "true" Imams before Ali's return--hence, the Twelvers. The major significant minority sect of Shi'ism holds that there will be seven such "true" Imams (and, of course, all parties claim they have the authority of revelation for their claims)--they are called the Seveners. Additionally, Islamic mysticism arose in the form of Sufism. Sufis (the word comes from an Arabic term for carded wool, and probably refers to coarse woolen garments worn by ascetics) in general are simply Muslim mystics, but there have been major sects based on Sufism, and the Druze (common in Palestine and the Lebanon) are probably the largest Sufi sect. Many Muslims do not consider the Druze to be "true" Muslims, and their habit of allying themselves with the Isrealis, both in Palestine and the Lebanon certainly does not endear them to other Muslims. The Druze in the Lebanon got badly burned in the Lebanese civil war, and tend to keep their heads down these days.

In Egypt, another major form of Shi'ism arose, and they were known as the Fatamids. That combines a Greek form, -id or -nid, meaning from the clan or family of (arachnid for spider, for example, means the children of Arachne). In this case, it refers to Fatima, the daughter of the Prophet and the wife of Ali. Just as Ali spread Islam vigorously, using the principle of Shi'ah--proselytizing--the Fatamids of Egypt spread Islam to the Berbers of North Africa, who eventually carried Islam to Spain.

This points up one of the problems that we have with "pundits" who pour out drivel about the Middle East and about Muslims (whether one considers the "pundit" to be liberal or conservative). Assuming that all Muslims are the same is the intellectual equivalent of considering the Church of the Nazarene to be identical to the Roman Catholic Church.

The Canadian foreign minister, Peter McKay, has said in Ottawa today that they are doing all they can to get ships to Lebanon safely. CBC spoke to a Canadian woman in the Lebanon in the Bekaah Valley who says she called the Canadian embassy on Saturday, and got a recorded message saying to call back on Monday, or to call Ottawa collect . . . (insert ironic emoticon here)

Israel's campaign has killed 181 people, all but 13 of them civilians, and wounded more than 500. It has also destroyed much of Lebanon's civilian infrastructure.

Twenty-four Israelis have been killed in the fighting, including 12 civilians hit in rocket attacks.

Hezbollah is responsible for each and every death. Be sure you are blaming the correct party.

Yes, of course, i blame the civilians of Beruit, they just need a few more bombings to set them straight.