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My political bets

 
 
Thomas
 
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 05:25 am
In controversial discussions, there usually comes a point when all the arguments have been exchanged. When this point is reached, the only reason people keep arguing is because they don't like to cede the last word to their opponents. One alternative I have found useful in real life is to make a bet, let each side put its money where its mouth is, and revisit the question whenever we know the answer. From time to time, I do that on A2K too. I have some hope this keeps the discussion from meandering endlessly, and somewhat discourages participants from insisting on silly points just because they can't admit mistakes.

But there's one problem: Often we have to wait quite long for the answer to the debated question. That makes it kind of hard to retrace old bets on A2K and see if I can collect or owe something (and, most importantly, whether I have prevailed against these m*r*ns who had the audacity and poor judgment to disagree with me.)

This thread tries to solve this problem by serving as a one-stop source for the bets I have made with fellow A2K people. Feel free to register your own if you want to. And, if you have made a bet with me and don't find it here, please let me know. I'll try to find, copy, and paste it.

Thanks, Thomas
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Type: Discussion • Score: 1 • Views: 749 • Replies: 15
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 05:34 am
The first bet I forgot about, but which isn't mature yet, is the one I made with Steve about oil prices.

Thomas wrote:
Steve (as 41oo) wrote:
I bet you $25 that the price of Texas light crude is higher in real terms (inflation adjusted) at close of trading on NYSE on 10 Oct 2008 than today.

I believe that NYMEX, the leading exchange in the oil business, quotes "Light Sweet Crude" without the "Texas" in it. NYMEX quotes are the easiest to keep track of on the web, so I suggest we use these. But dropping the "Texas" does not make or break the bet as far as I am concerned.

Deal.

(Source)

When we made this bet on October 10, 2005, the price of light sweet crude oil at NYMEX was $61.80, according to Go-Tech, a data repository at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology. I know I made a similar bet with Walter Hinteler, but I haven't found it yet.
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edgarblythe
 
  0  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 05:57 am
x marks the thread
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 08:51 am
Hey, this is a cool idea.
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dlowan
 
  0  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 09:13 am
Oy.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 09:16 am
sozobe wrote:
Hey, this is a cool idea.


I bet on that.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 09:26 am
Hi Walter -- Do you remember where we made the oil bet? Or shall we simply clone the one I made with Steve?
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 09:29 am
... and welcome to the thead everybody. Glad you like the idea. I just remembered that I tried something similar some time ago. Here's a link to it.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 09:44 am
Thomas wrote:
Hi Walter -- Do you remember where we made the oil bet? Or shall we simply clone the one I made with Steve?


I favour any bet - when I'm on the winning side!

But I agree on cloning ... HERE ... the Steve-bet.
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ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 09:49 am
Have you all seen the Iowa Electronic Markets? It is a real money futures markets where you can buy contracts that pay for things like "The Republicans lose control of the House" or "Hillary Clinton becomes president".

This is run by the University of Iowa and is considered an academic exercise-- except that anyone can participate with real money.

It is an interesting way to make political bets...
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 09:52 am
Heh.
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 09:54 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
But I agree on cloning ... HERE ... the Steve-bet.

Cool. Deal.

ebrown_p wrote:
Have you all seen the Iowa Electronic Markets? It is a real money futures markets where you can buy contracts that pay for things like "The Republicans lose control of the House" or "Hillary Clinton becomes president".

I did, and it's cool. I think Timber linked to tradesports.com during the 2004 campaign a lot. And of course, for the kind of bet I made with Walter and Steve, there is always the futures market.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 10:55 am
Is it okay for others to drop bets in here?

Thanks

Cycloptichorn
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Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 12:35 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Is it okay for others to drop bets in here?

Thanks

Cycloptichorn

Absolutely! In fact I invited you to do this in the initial post.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 12:46 pm
Just making sure.

Ticomaya and I have a standing bet that more people will be indicted in the Fitzgerald investigation.

He has chosen the position that there will be no more indictments, I have bet that there will be.

Thanks

Cycloptichorn
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Ticomaya
 
  1  
Reply Fri 9 Jun, 2006 09:23 pm
Just to clarify: My wager with you is there will be no more indictments of WH officials stemming from Fitzgerald's investigation.
0 Replies
 
 

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