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Climate Change must be tackled NOW

 
 
Italgato
 
  1  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2003 01:23 pm
Now, wolf has raised some concerns having to do with glaciers.
Anyone interested in this matter who thinks that the alleged "melting" of glaciers is directly tied to the co2 in the atmosphere may go to the very detailed article at:

www.fathersforlife.org/REA/warming10.htm

They will see that glaciers are much much more complicated than Wolf thinks that they are and that the "alleged" melting may not be basically tied to "global warming".

Again, I invite Wolf to rebut the points I made in the previous post SPECIFICALLY AND WITH EVIDENCE.
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Fri 10 Oct, 2003 01:42 pm
All I care to add to my already laborious efforts in this thread is that the large majority of scientific and international political bodies agree that greenhouse gas emissions should be mitigated in order to avoid climatological destabilisation.

This destabilisation has already started, as several record meteorological events have been witnessed during the past two years.

Those who refuse any human responsibility in the greenhouse effect -- no matter whether natural changes have occurred in the past or not, which is a non-argument -- are playing a childish trial-and-error game. They are highly irresponsible towards the planet, as a whole.
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Sat 11 Oct, 2003 05:47 pm
Good!

Quote:
As Arnold Schwarzenegger prepares to take the lead of the world's fifth largest economy, movies are not on his mind. Rather the new Governor wants to fight for both the environment and jobs. Hydrogen and fuel cells are key elements. At Mr. Schwarzenegger's first press conference after the Californian recall election, Mr. Schwarzenegger said: "It doesn't matter where the oil comes from. The bottom line is that we need alternative fuel, hydrogen fuel."

Mr. Schwarzenegger thereby makes a clear cut with sometimes sensitive issues about who controls the oil. The vision of the new Californian Governor is clear and clean: Hydrogen is the fuel of the future.

During Mr. Schwarzenegger's campaign he proposed to build a hydrogen infrastructure in California with fuelling stations every 20 miles. To finance this, Mr. Schwarzenegger is expected to negotiate substantial private funding. Also, Mr. Schwarzenegger said he would fight to get a large amount of the U.S. hydrogen and fuel cell budget to California.To Schwarzenegger Jobs and Environment go hand in hand.



Url
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Oct, 2003 07:37 pm
wolf wrote:
Good!

Quote:
As Arnold Schwarzenegger prepares to take the lead of the world's fifth largest economy, movies are not on his mind. Rather the new Governor wants to fight for both the environment and jobs. Hydrogen and fuel cells are key elements. At Mr. Schwarzenegger's first press conference after the Californian recall election, Mr. Schwarzenegger said: "It doesn't matter where the oil comes from. The bottom line is that we need alternative fuel, hydrogen fuel."

Mr. Schwarzenegger thereby makes a clear cut with sometimes sensitive issues about who controls the oil. The vision of the new Californian Governor is clear and clean: Hydrogen is the fuel of the future.

During Mr. Schwarzenegger's campaign he proposed to build a hydrogen infrastructure in California with fuelling stations every 20 miles. To finance this, Mr. Schwarzenegger is expected to negotiate substantial private funding. Also, Mr. Schwarzenegger said he would fight to get a large amount of the U.S. hydrogen and fuel cell budget to California.To Schwarzenegger Jobs and Environment go hand in hand.



Url

Arnold wants to pump billions into energy companies, and Wolf thinks that's good? Curiouser and curiouser... Rolling Eyes
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Oct, 2003 11:06 pm
Scrat wrote:
Arnold wants to pump billions into energy companies, and Wolf thinks that's good? Curiouser and curiouser... Rolling Eyes


I don't agree always, with what is said by wolf.

But I really wonder, why you find this reponse curious and curiouser!

(Honestly: I don't wonder, when I remember your previous pposts, Scrat Laughing )
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2003 10:59 am
Depends which energy companies, Scrat. If Arnie wants to build a hydrogen fueling network in California, I'm all for him. Who wouldn't?
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2003 11:35 am
wolf wrote:
Depends which energy companies, Scrat. If Arnie wants to build a hydrogen fueling network in California, I'm all for him. Who wouldn't?

That's my point Wolf, you're "all for him" without knowing the answers to a lot of important questions; what will they build and where? what will they fuel from those stations? what will it cost? what are the risks and possible downsides? etc.. You don't care about those questions because you don't care about the realities of the situation. You respond to the word "hydrogen" the way Pavlov's dogs responded to the bell. You aren't thinking, you're just reacting based on your liberal programming.

Of course, that's just my opinion based on my reading of things you've written here in A2K. I could be wrong.

I'm neither for nor against hydrogen fuel development until I know how they plan to do it, and can consider the pros and cons.
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wolf
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Oct, 2003 01:09 pm
Now, now, who's being bad-humoured.
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Scrat
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Oct, 2003 11:18 am
wolf wrote:
Now, now, who's being bad-humoured.

I'm sure it isn't you. :wink:
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Oct, 2003 02:12 am
george

You and I have exchanged on this subject before and I don't think we'll agree on probabilities nor on which path is the more prudent. My post earlier was meant to address the not uncommon argument that the science community is financially motivated to find evidence of global warming (research bucks from universities, etc), a charge reflected in the Russian fellow's statement you quoted. But of course, such funding is absolutely insignificant when compared to the money pouring down from the petro-chemical and manufacturing interests.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Oct, 2003 06:57 am
Blatham,

Your point is valid and I accept it. Certainly the companies involved in our petroleum & coal economy have a good deal of sunk cost and a vested interest in the continuation of the current system. It should also be noted that they do also have a leg up on others in exploiting any new technology that may emerge offering environmental improvements. This doesn't eliminate their incentive to preserve the existing system, rather it limits what is in their interest to spend to preserve it.

I fear however that we often wrongfully discount the power of the various professional, psychological, and social factors that too can very powerfully motivate people. I believe these forces are real, but are not easily measured in terms of (say) dollars. I have had enough direct professional experience with EPA scientists and bureaucrats to see these forces at work. They involve conformity with the prevailing orthodoxy of the government organization; the drive for expanded or continued power and professional prominence; and the peculiar (almost religious) intensity of academic/scholarly disputes; among others. (Henry Kissinger is credited with a famous quip offered when confronted with a rhetorical question as to why academic disputes were fought and continued with such peculiar intensity - "Because the stakes are so low", he said.)
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Oct, 2003 06:16 pm
george

I understand your point re orthodoxy either political or theoretical. Perhaps, on the political side of this, all we can do is pay attention and yell our heads off when we see things going badly off the rails. And of course, there are two sides here, as in the President's response to his science council's findings a year or so ago which he passed off as 'bureaucratic' (I wanted to slug the bugger for that one).

The scientific side is a bit multi-faceted too. You'll surely recall Carlson's "Silent Spring", which really marked the beginning of broad popular environmental awareness - that is, that we were causing significant damage to environments and bio-systems which our innocent faith in the goodness of science/technology hadn't prepared us for. Of course, we also realized that Monsanto was a rather different sort of creature than what they'd been suggesting in their happy 50's tv advertisements.

I think you'd have to agree (actually, I'm sure you would) that the orthodoxy which had to be addressed was assumption that we could dump anything anywhere and it would sink away or float away or burn away, and disappear with no or little trace. That wasn't a surprising orthodoxy, as we homo saps had been doing precisely that for a million years, and the planet is a big place.

I'd argue further that the problematical orthodoxy yet remains in the camp of industry/finance. I'm actually very pessimistic on this point, and think we are more likely to be stupid rather than smart, and continue with an old model because those folks who run the show stand to profit. The CEO of Chrysler, in a speech two weeks past, said that in only ten years, China will become the second largest consumer of new automobiles (behind the US). That's just autos, not all the other stuff like wide screen TVs and vinyl intimacy companions. And then there's India, and Pakistan, and on and on. And he didn't even dare to speak about twenty years from now! Of course, his speech was completely concerned with Chrysler's financial outlook...not a smidgeon of a hint of a breath of a mention of anything other than that.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Oct, 2003 08:28 pm
blatham wrote:
george
I think you'd have to agree (actually, I'm sure you would) that the orthodoxy which had to be addressed was assumption that we could dump anything anywhere and it would sink away or float away or burn away, and disappear with no or little trace. That wasn't a surprising orthodoxy, as we homo saps had been doing precisely that for a million years, and the planet is a big place.

I'd argue further that the problematical orthodoxy yet remains in the camp of industry/finance. I'm actually very pessimistic on this point, and think we are more likely to be stupid rather than smart, and continue with an old model because those folks who run the show stand to profit. .


I fully agree with your first paragraph. I think we all rather blithely then regarded rivers, oceans, undeveloped land, and everything 'out there' as infinite in its ability to absorb, without effect, all the debris of our activities. That applied to all of us; good guys like you and me, and the captains of industry as well. It was a continuation of human attitudes and behaviors that had continued for millennia.

With respect to the second paragraph, I believe that all of us have changed our attitudes on this score, but collectively we are having a hard time figuring out how to make wise tradeoffs between what is needed for our real welfare and the needs of the environment. My company has a group that specializes in ecological risk assessments - risks to native plant species, wildlife, and humans, all associated with planned developments. An interesting constant in these studies is that in general the optimal option for plants and animals is the one that eliminates the humans from the scene. That may illustrate an underlying truth about nature (and/or possible hidden biases in our models).

I believe the key point here is the finiteness of both the environments in which our many 'systems' reside, and to which they discharge their waste, and of our systems and the resources they themselves consume. Everything is connected. An excessive remedy in one area inevitably means an inadequate one in another. Excessive limitations imposed on one needed system may lead to the creation of others with far worse effects. We must seek holistic solutions that meet the needs of both humans and the environment and optimize the two simultaneously - and not in competition with one another. Zealots of all stripes must be limited, both of industry and of compulsory environmental regulation.

Rachel Carson's work was focused on the untoward effects of DDT, a cheap and very effective, but environmentally persistent insecticide. It brought about a wholesale reduction in the worldwide incidence of Malaria, then a very serious cause of mortality. Now we find the incidence of Malaria again rising and some African nations threatening to resume production and use of DDT to combat it.

One of the principal applications of GM agriculture is in the development of pest resistant species so we can reduce the use of chlorinated phosphate based pesticides in agriculture. Odd that this benefit is never cited in the somewhat hysterical pieces about 'frankenfoods'. Another is the development of so-called "Roundup ready" seeds - food plant variants that are resistant to the environmentally friendly herbicide, Roundup. With these GM seeds farmers can sow their fields without plowing the soil, relying on the quick-degrading herbicide to kill off competing weeds and permitting natural processes (mostly worms) to aerate and mix the soil environment. This significantly reduces the need for chemical fertilizer and drastically reduces both soil erosion and nutrient runoff into streams and rivers - an enormous environmental benefit that is also overlooked in most of the scare literature.

There are however, some hopeful synergies. All those automobiles will be part of a lifestyle transformation that will quickly lower the birthrate in China. If I am not mistaken demographers forecast a levelling off of world population later this century - a momentous change.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Oct, 2003 09:12 pm
george

How can I not like a guy who wants to live in San Francisco, right there beside all those dashing fops and at least one of my early drug sources (he might still be there, if you're running low...right on the corner of something and something, up a hill, big red house with yellow stars on the door).

That's a wonderful post. Your balance is on admirable display here. Thank you. I am not, I ought to tell you, in the camp that believes genetic modification of food crops to be too dangerous to mess around with. Given appropriate safeguards in research and testing, and given a fundamental respect for bio-diversity, and given regulation such that monopolization does not occur, I'm on board with a trumpet. I'm a big fan of science as a way to understand and modify the world. I'm very much less a fan of what large meta-national corporations can be counted on to do (and NOT do) with technologies.

But...your last paragraph I find less hopeful than you may see things. By the end of this century, what is that population projected to be at when it levels? Just in my lifetime (half a century), the change has been unimaginable, except through the abstract of numbers. And the lifestyle transformation you mention which surely will occur in China and elsewhere - even if population remained at what it is right now - is the problem. If the rest of the world begins to live our sort of lifestyle, we don't have a prayer.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Oct, 2003 11:44 pm
You certainöy followed the disccussion in Europe and the results of the tests in the UK. Here's a sum up by the BBC:
Quote:

The results of the first environmental-impact study of genetically modified crops has found the cultivation of two crops to be more harmful to many groups of wildlife than their conventional equivalents.
The production of a third plant was shown to be kinder to other plants and animals than the normal crop. BBC News Online asked for opinions from opposite sides of the debate.

link to the BBC . On that website, you will more links (on the upper right corner) about the discussion in Britain.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Oct, 2003 06:24 am
Walter,

I have not yet seen any of the news releases, but I am familiar with the UK/EU study, the analytical model behind it, and some preliminary discussions of the results. Most of us were cynically amused at the architecture of the (then planned ) study when we read about it. It was obviously designed to yield a particular result and could yield only a very narrow answer. Yet another "risk analysis" showing that "native species" would be better off if humans would disappear.

If I recall correctly they were going to measure the effect on insect (and some bird) species of various GM and standard crops. The key point was the insect species chosen for the study (and there were many other possibilities) were precisely those that were dependent on the native plant species (read weeds) that competed with the food crops. That meant that precisely those food plants that were most successful in that competition (and therefore in delivering the highest food yields) would, necessarily be found to be most harmful to "the environment", and that their harm would be in direct proportion to their utility as a food source. No mention of the ecological value of humans having something to eat, and no mention of the obvious fact that, if a less successful food plant were used (one more tolerant of weeds and therefore locally less "harmful" to the insect species that depend on them, more land area would have to be dedicated to the production of the same quantity of food. The obvious result would be approximately the same large-area effect on the insect species chosen.

This is not science.
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georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Oct, 2003 06:55 am
Well Blatham I do indeed like San Francisco - the place, the scene, the air, the spirit, and I don't even mind the dashing fops (as long as they are not unhinged proselytizers and meet one's ordinary standards for interesting, amusing people - and most do). My roots are more connected with the old ethnic, Irish, Italian, & Chinese parts of the city, Olympic & Bohemian Clubs and that scene.

I have seen a lot of harm done by the drug scene though. Tried pot too (long ago when I lived in Monterey and was arm wrestling champ of the Red Lion Tavern in Carmel). Made me silly & hungry and gave me a headache & itchy legs. Decided I liked runner's high and booze better.

Thank you for the kind appraisal. After a long journey, I too have found things to like and admire in you, my friend.

Don't be too pessimistic. The world is mostly an empty place, as any cross-country flight on a clear day will quickly verify. Recall also that in our (appropriate) fixation with the harmful side effects of modern lifestyles, we often fail to adequately note the equally harmful environmental effects of more primitive lifestyles in crowded regions of Africa and Asia. (The more or less permanent 'Brown Cloud' of South Asia and the Indian Ocean is a result of the widespread use of biomass fuels in grossly inefficient (thermodynamically) processes for cooking, heating, and primitive industrial applications. - It is a serious problem and it ironically springs from the (inefficient) use of renewable fuels!)

I believe I recall forecasts for the equilibrium population of the world at around twice the current level. Life, now as always, remains full of risks and opportunities, but I remain an optimist.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Oct, 2003 08:34 am
george

Yes...some of the scouts returning from the gonzo edges of the drug scene bear bad tidings. Of course, the term ("drug") has become totally incoherent in our culture, reflecting prejudices and misinformation and custom, rather than anything objective or scientific. Booze is actually the one I'd get rid of, if voted in as King. A few years ago, a New Yorker article reported on the day to day activities of a social worker in New York city. At that time, pot was making something of a comeback within the population this fellow dealt with. He was happy about that, saying "Now they come home and write bad poetry, instead of beating on their wives."

I'd settle for the sort of haze which widespread slash and burn farming produces over what's going on in the ocean environments presently, for the obvious reason of future consequence. We could - we surely will - continue to 'harvest' fish stocks out of existence. If we are (as the President's science council found) contributing to the pattern of global warming, and if this continues to have consequences for oceanic micro-organisms (and consequently, everything else in the oceans) then we could see cascading die-offs with critical consequences. And, by the way, the BBC site this morning has a piece on glacial melt, which itself will have effects on future oceanic temperatures and currents, etc.

The thing of it is, if you are wrong - that is, if the future reveals increasing evidence of serious and long term environmental degradation caused by human activity - I think it likely (near to certainty)that even if we could (technologically) reduce or eliminate those contributory factors adequately, we won't - and the rationale will be cost. The inertia of the social and political and financial machinery which has evolved in the last two or three hundred years will carry us too far. Famine and viruses will, I suspect, get about the job of pruning that we avoided.

Between now and then, I'm afraid I expect that governance (and media) will increasingly be held or influenced by those social entities where wealth and power is now being consolidated. If so, and if growing emergencies arise within populations here and there, with attendant unrest, the consequences for civil liberties won't be small.

That the Patriot Act has now been used to target environmental activists is, under this scenario, entirely predictable. As is tucking political protests away (or pepper spraying them, or arresting them) from assemblages of trade and commerce folks or world leaders. As are increasing temptations and arguments in the direction of limiting privacy. As is concentration of media ownership. As is, frankly, control of key resources, such as oil and (now coming up the pike) water.

But, my sex life is earth-shatteringly redemptive.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Oct, 2003 09:34 am
George

There are indeed a öot of people thinking that the survey isn't scientific enough, if it really is.

You may be astonished, but these persons are all against GM-crops while it is heavily defended by the pro-fraction. Laughing
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Oct, 2003 11:10 am
On the subject of water (hoping no one minds this related point here)...
Quote:
A new type of water consortium has emerged in Germany that may be a prototype for the future. Companies such as AquaMundo put together giant investment pools using overseas government aid, private bank investments and public utilities funds in the recipient country. In an arrangement called cross-border leasing, they hire local contractors to run the water services. Some investment companies keep their money in tax havens, avoiding national taxes, and offer a deal to cash-strapped governments. In these public-private partnerships, the private investor is guaranteed huge profits from the public purse for many years, and if the company or investment pool disappears, the local government is left holding the bag.

The bottled water industry is growing at an annual rate of 20%. Last year, nearly 100bn litres of bottled water were sold around the world, most of it in non-renewable plastic. Fierce disputes, mostly in the developing world, are being waged between local communities and companies such as Coca-Cola and Nestlé, aggressively seeking new supplies of "boutique water". Perrier is being taken to court by citizens in Michigan and Wisconsin in a dispute over licences to take huge amounts of aquifer water that feeds the Great Lakes of North America. In India, whole river systems, such as the River Bhavani in Tamil Nadu state, have been sold to Coca-Cola even as the state is suffering the worst drought in living memory. As one company explains, water is now a "rationed necessity that may be taken by force".
http://www.canadians.org/display_document.htm?COC_token=23@@08e78b9f9684d31230f2980dcb66d475&id=575&isdoc=1&catid=247
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