2004 Elections: Bush's Campaign Performance.

He shirked. Of course, 3 decades ago, there were those who could shirk, and those who couldn't. His military record, like his driving record, is not among his strongpoints. He did wear a uniform during the Recent Southeast Asian Unpleasantness, something few of his potential opponents can claim. Kerry, of course, is the signal exception, but then, Kerry hasn't won a war. Hell, if I could have wrangled a cushy civilian office job back then, I would have (though I doubt he was influenced by ideology). Frankly, I expect The Dems will attempt to make an issue of the matter, and I further expect them to fail in the effort. The Shrub LOOKS the part of The Modern Commander In Chief. To The Electorate At Large, Style matters far more than Substance. As long as The Dow is at or above 9K, unemployment is at or below 5.5%, GDP growth is at or above 3%, inflation is below 2%, and both South Korea and Israel still exist come Autum '04, he can't lose. George's military record is merely an inconvenience, not a career-limiting hinderance. In fact, if The Dems sieze on the matter as a key point of opposition, they will simply seal their own doom.

Too bad he wasn't a deserter. He could have been pardoned by President Carter.

I've recently done a little research about Bush's hitch with the National Guard. After serving a portion of his six year hitch, he recieved permission to work on a political campaign in Alabama. He was supposed to do his flight training there-- there is no record of his attendance, and no one who saw him there.

He did make up some lost weekends later. However, after reading several write ups, it does appear to me that Bush didn't meet his requirements as set forth, and may have had paperwork cleaned up for him.

Certainly not the worst Presidential military past, and not the best.

QUESTIONS:

What is your opinion on Bush's National Guard time?

Since he and Gore both had dubious military experiences, Bush's wasn't presented much in the election. If he matches up with Kerry , could the service issue be damaging?

Clark's entrance into the fray has livened up the debate possibilities.
I'm looking forward to seeing him on the stump. The logic seems to predict that he would be a smooth speaker (with that big edumacation), but of late, he has reversed himself pretty glaringly--and this will be easy pickin's for whoever stands at opposing podiums.

The Clintonistas are backing him--and they are very slick. Hmm.

But, I am heartened that he is a disaster, because I remember months ago, watching him get flustered by reporter's questions about his possible run. He was leaving out a CNN alleyway door, and was beset by inquiring reporters, pressing him about his political aspirations. He got on his cell phone and engaged in a very embarrassing convo with CNN about whether or not he could answer the questions...

Now, I read he yelled for his staffer, "Help, Mary," when asked about HIS views.

He seems to get flustered easily, and seems to 'forget' where he stands on issues.

From your vantage point: who do you prefer to face Bush?

Tempting to just say "Bring 'em on". Not one of The Ten Little Indians shows me any political stature. The risk I see is complacency on the part of The Repubs ...the real fight comes in'] '08. the Cubscouts could handle this battle, the next will surely call for sterner stuff.



'

I thought this may be a good location to track economic indicators and progress of the issues Bush will be judged on at election time.

Jobs
other economic indicators
Stocks
Iraq rebuilding
Afghanistan rebuilding
Spending
Public opinion
WMDs
The Novak article

Bush has tumbled from his popularity perch in the polls. (Though other Presidents have been re-elected with much worse numbers at this point...)I do think much of this is attributable to All Bad News, All The Time about Iraq. I have seen a lot of reports recently, citing a more positive reality in Iraq than we are getting through the news. This bodes better.

Jobs are sluggish, but other economic indicators seem to be bubbling up--so say the talking heads on Cavuto--but that is one (yeah, possibly biased) view.

Any polls or related info, articles, opinion on issues that will figure heavily in the campaign and election are welcome here. Dem contender stuff, too.

I don't think he's "stumbled" at all. He is right back at the approval ratings he had on Sept 10th, 2001.

Now, if he'd managed to pull the country out of the economic slump then he may have maintained higher numbers for longer but I don't think it's entirely realistic to think anyone would have maintained his post-9/11 numbers for a 3 year stretch (until the next election).

You'll note most on the left are talking about Iraq rebuilding and the Novak story now. The economic indicators are turning and there is no wind in their sails on that front. They see it and are looking for other issues to grab ahold of.

EMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND WAGES

STATUS OF THE LABOR FORCE

In August, employment rose by 147,000 and unemployment fell by 157,000.
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I'll just bring back info directly from the Economic Indicators chart.
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Glad it's going in the right direction.

Three out of the five largest increases in total federal spending over the entire history of our country have occurred during the first three years of the presidency of George W. Bush. The other two years were during World War II. Yes, George Bush has had to increase defense spending, but so did Ronald Reagan. The difference? Reagan cut nondefense spending, Bush hasn't. The budget for the useless Department of Education is 60% higher than it was three years ago.

Is this what you voted for in 2000?

His action to defend our country is the only thing I can support him on, except for the tax cut. He spends our money like Ted Kennedy.

I'm scared to death that he will sign the 400 billion dollar drug benefit program, he has indicated he will sign whatever is brought to him.

I know the Dems would jack taxes taking money out of the economy to balance the budget like Clinton did, this isn't the answer either. Clinton was lucky with the tech boom, Bush is not lucky like that, he needs to learn to cut spending in a major way.

The Federal Government is experiencing a sharp increase in tax revenues. That's right, an increase! It's no small increase in federal tax revenues either. Try this figure ---- $85 Billion. The current estimate of tax revenues to the federal government is $85,000,000,000 higher right now than it was one month ago. The left and the Democrats have been warning that the Bush tax cuts would lead to lower tax revenues, the fiscal conservatives have been saying just the opposite. Well ... guess who wins this one. Hint: It's not the left.

There are predictions that the economy might grow by as much as 6% during the last quarter. Bush gets his tax cuts, tax revenues are actually going up, the economy is improving, and these Democratic mental midgets who want to be president are all talking about how they're going to raise taxes. The hungry-for-attention Joe Lieberman even wants to kick taxes up an extra 5% over what they were after Clinton's tax hike!

Things appear to be progressing, hopefully it's a continuing trend, now if he would do some smart spending cuts.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/980713.asp?0dm=B29JB#BODY

Good news.

"On balance, the pace of economic expansion has picked up since the last report," the Fed concluded in its latest "Current Economic Conditions" survey.
This survey, one of eight done every year, will be used when Fed policy-makers meet on Oct. 28 to review interest rates. Most analysts believe the central bank will leave its target for banks' overnight borrowing unchanged at a 45-year low of 1 percent in the belief that economic recovery is finally beginning to pick up steam.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials have indicated they are prepared to leave rates low for a considerable period of time to make sure that economic growth strengthens enough to spur companies to start rehiring laid off workers.
While the country has been out of the last recession since November 2001, businesses have continued to slash payrolls and the unemployment rate is currently stuck at 6.1 percent.
Many economists, however, are predicting that economic growth in the just-completed July-September quarter could come in at an annual rate above 5 percent, with growth in the current quarter expected to top 4 percent. That would represent the strongest back-to-back increases in the gross domestic product in four years.
The Fed survey gave support to this optimistic forecast, reporting that housing sales, one of the economy's leading lights, remained "robust" in the early fall despite a slight uptick in mortgage rates.
Consumer spending in general improved in much of the country, helped by the latest round of federal tax cuts, although most districts reported a slowdown in auto sales.
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A good thumbnail economic chart at the bottom of the page.
About three years ago, my community suffered serious losses. We are primarily a manufactoring community, and four of our major plants closed. Three more laid off nearly half of the employees.

Two have recently reopened, and all are rehiring now.

Obviously, we are feeling the improvement.

BOO-YAH!
The economy is still gaining--and the GOP controlled House has passed the Medicaid Bill. This seems to me to be a great asset for Bush in the election. (Not to mention great for seniors...)

Is this a big win, or am I too rosy...? Did we get any AARPers?

The whole AARP thing is going to be interesting to watch play out. They've been a major player in Washington politics for the last few decades - probably second in strength only to the NRA - and they've been almost entirely for the Democratic Party platforms and side of issues.

I don't know that the Right has picked up any of the AARP people but the Left has lost quite a few of them. The Democrats may just have lost one of their strongest campaign allies.

Bush assessments

Jobs
Going great!! Can't deny jobs are picking up.

other economic indicators
Manufacturing, new homes, production
up, up, up...

Stocks
Very good!

Iraq rebuilding
Was horrific. I think the tide has turned. More positive news, now that the Iraqi PM is front and center. Still, a huge variable.

Afghanistan rebuilding
Problematic at best, but Karzai recently spoke at the WH and Congress--He does remind us of what is was like before, and improvements that have been made--

Spending
<next>

Public opinion
tiny climbing

WMDs
<looking under desk....rats>
But the Commission's findings reveal new information about meetings between Iraqi intel and Osama's reps. Finding out new stuff all the time...

The Novak article
Awaiting shoe to drop. Could be a non-player--or not.

Things appeared quite dismal for a while there. I do believe there is an upward trend starting.

I will say I saw Bush at a post-G-8 news conference, and he was surprisingly ill-tempered. I know he must hate half those journalists, but he can't show it like that.

should be a MAJOR player

Depending on how it comes out. If there's a Big Guilty Guy, or a little guilty peon...

Latest Plame Game Update

The investigation is ongoing, but the absence of breathless media hysteria over Whitehouse-Damaging leaks from within the investigation lead me to suspect strongly the investigation has as yet uncovered no such Whitehouse-Damaging information. No guarantees, of course, but I figure this goes nowhere at the very least, or backfires on The Dems at the very best. I don't expect anything to come of this in the way of inconvenience to the effort to retain The Incumbent.

But of course, something negative OUGHT TO come of it, yes? This isn't a small potatoes ethical and legal failing. If nothing does come of it, then that speaks very poorly for everyone involved, administration and press. Are you sure that's the direction you want your country going, timber?

blatham, if there's anything there, I most assurredly and adamantly wish it brought to light, and have said as much on several threads here, which certainly you must recall. I have also said I suspect there well may be no "There" there, or that "There" turns out to be very different from where some would like to see it go. I sincerely doubt there is/was any direct high-level, or even mid-level, Whitehouse culpability.

Of course I could be wrong, but that's just the way I see the odds stacking up. I've been wrong before; I thought Kerry the strongest of The Ten Little Indians, then thought had failed to meet my expectations, and then he turned out to be not just The One To Beat but the Winner of the Playoff Spot. :wink: