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Leftist candidate worries Mexican elite

 
 
el pohl
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Jul, 2006 10:03 am
I wonder who would have won if there was a second round between the leading two...
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Jul, 2006 10:50 am
Thats an interesting question - I'm sure the runoff players would put a buncha effort into courting the followers of the minor parties most closely aligned with their own tickets. I assume, without real knowledge basis, that in Mexico the minor parties would trend more leftward, so that prolly would be a major factor, too.

Any thoughts on the weekend - is violence a likely development?
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BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Jul, 2006 11:21 am
fbaezer
fbaezer, what do you think of Former Mexican Foreign Minister Jorge Castaneda ideas for reform in Mexico?

BBB
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el pohl
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Jul, 2006 01:43 pm
Yeah, lets hear those ideas!

Violence huh? Well, I'm not sure how much emphasys the PRD is going to put in the weekend's marches. But, if hundreds of thousands congregates in the capital, the PAN would be wise if they don't get in their way. Here up north I think nothing is really going to happen.
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fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Jul, 2006 03:08 pm
Violence? Not likely, even if some radicals would love to.

Second round? IMHO it would mean a Calderón landslide.
PRI voters are usually very conservative even if the official, but forgotten ideology is closer to AMLO than to Calderón (in fact, in an ideological map they consider themselves "right wing" in opinion polls, but not the American or European meaning of right wing... if you analyze further, what they mean is "no change").
An open PRI endorsement would probably backlash. So I don't know if any one would ask for it.
PANAL voters already voted Calderón (Campa got a measly 1%, the party got near 5% for the House).
Mercado's voters would be split by half, I think.

Castañeda... I think we've discussed him.
As I've said, he has a bright mind and has contributed to Mexican democracy. His political standpoint is blurry, at least for me.
Personally I believe he does not have a chance to become president. He's blond. His second last name is Jewish. And he's a pro-US leftist. Every element conspires against him.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Jul, 2006 11:34 pm
Quote:
Comment

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Mexico and Florida have more in common than heat

There is evidence that left-leaning voters have been scrubbed from key electoral lists in Latin America


Greg Palast
Saturday July 8, 2006
The Guardian


There's something rotten in Mexico. And it smells like Florida. The ruling party, the Washington-friendly National Action Party (Pan), proclaimed yesterday their victory in the presidential race, albeit tortilla thin, was Mexico's first "clean" election. But that requires we close our eyes to some very dodgy doings in the vote count that are far too reminiscent of the games played in Florida in 2000 by the Bush family. And indeed, evidence suggests that Team Bush had a hand in what may be another presidential election heist.

Just before the 2000 balloting in Florida, I reported in the Guardian that its governor, Jeb Bush, had ordered the removal of tens of thousands of black citizens from the state's voter rolls. He called them "felons", but our investigation discovered their only crime was Voting While Black. And that little scrub of the voter rolls gave the White House to his brother George.
Jeb's winning scrub list was the creation of a private firm, ChoicePoint of Alpharetta, Georgia. Now, it seems, ChoicePoint is back in the voter list business - in Mexico - at the direction of the Bush government. Months ago, I got my hands on a copy of a memo from the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, marked "secret", regarding a contract for "intelligence collection of foreign counter-terrorism investigations".

Given that the memo was dated September 17 2001, a week after the attack on the World Trade Centre, hunting for terrorists seemed like a heck of a good idea. But oddly, while all 19 hijackers came from Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf, the contract was for obtaining the voter files of Venezuela, Brazil ... and Mexico.

What those Latin American countries have in common, besides a lack of terrorists, is either a left-leaning president or a left candidate for president ahead in the opinion polls, leaders of the floodtide of Bush-hostile Latin leaders. It seems that the Bush government feared the leftist surge was up against the US's southern border.

As we found in Florida in 2000, my investigations team on the ground in Mexico City this week found voters in poor neighbourhoods, the left's turf, complaining that their names were "disappeared" from the voter rolls. ChoicePoint can't know what use the Bush crew makes of its lists. But erased registrations require us to ask, before this vote is certified, was there a purge as there was in Florida?

Notably, ruling party operatives carried registration lists normally in the hands of elections officials only. (In Venezuela in 2004, during the special election to recall President Hugo Chavez, I saw his opponents consulting laptops with voter lists. Were these the purloined FBI files? The Chavez government suspects so but, victorious, won't press the case.)

There's more that the Mexico vote has in common with Florida besides the heat. The ruling party's hand-picked electoral commission counted a mere 402,000 votes more for their candidate, Felipe Calderón, over challenger Andrés Manuel López Obrador. That's noteworthy in light of the surprise showing of candidate Señor Blank-o (the 827,000 ballots supposedly left "blank").

We've seen Mr Blank-o do well before - in Florida in 2000 when Florida's secretary of state (who was also co-chair of the Bush campaign) announced that 179,000 ballots showed no vote for the president. The machines couldn't read these ballots with "hanging chads" and other technical problems. Humans can read these ballots with ease, but the hand-count was blocked by Bush's conflicted official.

And so it is in Mexico. The Calderón "victory" is based on a gross addition of tabulation sheets. His party, the Pan, and its election officials are refusing López Obrador's call for a hand recount of each ballot which would be sure to fill in those blanks.

Blank ballots are rarely random. In Florida in 2000, 88% of the supposedly blank ballots came from African-American voting districts - that is, they were cast by Democratic voters. In Mexico, the supposed empty or unreadable ballots come from the poorer districts where the challenger's Party of the Democratic Revolution (PDR) is strongest.

There's an echo of the US non-count in the south-of-the-border tally. It's called "negative drop-off". In a surprising number of districts in Mexico, the federal electoral commission logged lots of negative drop-off: more votes for lower offices than for president. Did López Obrador supporters, en masse, forget to punch in their choice?

There are signs of Washington's meddling in its neighbour's election. The International Republican Institute, an arm of Bush's party apparatus funded by the US government, admits to providing tactical training for Pan. Did Pan also make use of the purloined citizen files? (US contractor ChoicePoint, its Mexican agents facing arrest for taking the data, denied wrongdoing and vowed to destroy its copies of the lists. But what of Mr Bush's copy?)

Mexico's Bush-backed ruling party claims it has conducted Mexico's first truly honest election, though it refuses to re-count the ballots or explain the purge of voters. Has the Pan and its ally in Washington served democracy in this election, or merely Florida con salsa?
Source
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el pohl
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Jul, 2006 10:00 am
!!!

The only fact that english people are keeping track and building an opinion about our elections surprise me. But the type of opinion they will have, with this article, hits me even more! Curiously this type of information doesn't reach our land as explicit as you show it.

Mmm... I'm gonna create a "send-a-forward" strategy! Razz

I really think that counting vote for vote would not only show us the truth, but, even if Calderón did win (as I think happened), the issue will be cleared for ever. The masses would calm down and the people who didn't vote for him would recognize his victory. Again, he won with 1/3 of the votes, BUT only around 58% of the registered people voted. So... 1 of each 5 mexicans want to see him seated in the presidential chair.

If the issue isn't resolved, when we remember the 2006 elections there will be unanswered questions and many doubts. Similar to what happened in 1988 with Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas (who's son has been getting closer with Calderón), or in 1994 with Diego Fernández.
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el pohl
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Jul, 2006 10:07 am
Humm... what surprised me EVEN more where the people's negative comments toward the columnist and diary. What is the image that The Guardian has in England?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Jul, 2006 10:11 am
I suppose, you should at first look at what image Greg Palast has :wink:

The Guardian is a center-left liberal paper - 44% of Guardian readers vote Labour and 37% vote Liberal Democrat.
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el pohl
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Jul, 2006 10:51 am
"Center-left liberal"? Dang, and I thought the new names in footbal positions/formations where confusing.

There will be a time when all the words that we type will have an inherent Wikipedia definition link to it. Cool.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Jul, 2006 11:01 am
el_pohl wrote:
"Center-left liberal"? Dang, and I thought the new names in footbal positions/formations where confusing.


I think, this IS worth to be mentioned, since in Europe liberal mostly indicates some more right position (due to the position of a cople of liberal parties and because they are generally close to the big industry/business).
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Jul, 2006 11:10 am
I play left defense myself..

There - instead of the left/right business, they should just start identifying people and parties by position on the field.

AMLO seems like a striker, but he hasnt scored a goal yet.
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fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Jul, 2006 12:22 pm
nimh wrote:
AMLO seems like a striker, but he hasnt scored a goal yet.


The Cristiano Ronaldo of politics.
Lots of diving and trying to confuse the referee!
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el pohl
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Jul, 2006 04:16 pm
Boo. Ex-President Echeverría has been granted his "freedom". Another point for Fox's achievements, just besides the negotiations with Bush. Was that a political move or what?

I don't know fbaezer, but if Calderón's triumph can be proved 100%, it better have. Unfortunately nor the businessman, nor the clergy, nor the politicians, nor the americans, not even the media wants the votes counted one by one. It's funny how - here at least - middle and upper class people say "Someone better shut Obrador's mouth already" when the lower class says "We've been robbed".
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Jul, 2006 06:00 pm
fbaezer wrote:
nimh wrote:
AMLO seems like a striker, but he hasnt scored a goal yet.

The Cristiano Ronaldo of politics.
Lots of diving and trying to confuse the referee!

Hee. You make your case with wit.. Razz
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el pohl
 
  1  
Reply Sun 9 Jul, 2006 09:41 am
Mr. Clean is quite a hypocrite too. How can he invite AMLO to a spot in his gabinet when the phrase that made him "win" was that "López Obrador is a danger for Mexico"?

Let's see what happens with the tribunal claims the PRD will present today. After the WC Final of course. Razz
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fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Jul, 2006 07:44 pm
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fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Jul, 2006 07:55 pm
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el pohl
 
  1  
Reply Fri 14 Jul, 2006 09:19 pm
Oh, oh, and although I didn't read the whole article, I think you forgot to mention that he said that probably his the PRD representants in each booth where probably bought too, after the video fiasco. He doesn't even trust his people...

I'm kinda disappointed.
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fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Sat 15 Jul, 2006 02:19 am
el_pohl wrote:
Oh, oh, and although I didn't read the whole article, I think you forgot to mention that he said that probably his the PRD representants in each booth where probably bought too, after the video fiasco. He doesn't even trust his people...


The second article does.

IMHO both articles fall short.

AMLO's attack on "subliminal" ads was a piece of unintentional humor.
"Watch the color of the can!" he exclaimed, showing a Jumex commercial.
Jumex cans have been blue since AMLO and myself were children. So has been the PAN logo.

And what about the "hidden algorithm"? A mysterious cybernetic fraud by the PREP... and later the prescinct by prescinct recount been forged to match the PREP (and the exit polls, and the prescinct sample fast count).

And calling the IFE "delinquents", even if it's one of the most prestigious institutions of the country.

And telling his people to "put pressure on the media".

And accussing soap operas ("La fea más bella") and comedy shows ("Muévete") of doing subliminal propaganda. As part of a legal case made mostly of newspaper clips.

And saying that, since the "Lopez Obrador is a danger to Mexico" ads are "fascist", the whole election was a fraud.

I personally think we've lost AMLO. He's gone beserk. And I gotta thank those 237 thousand extra Mexicans who held their noses and voted Calderón anyway just to keep this lunatic out of power.

el_pohl wrote:

I'm kinda disappointed.


You're a rational person, pohl.

I've met several AMLO voters who have already regretted their choice. And not two weeks have passed from the election.
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