Asherman, who has written some fine paragraphs on this thread, did mention the economy as an important factor. I am sure that my approach towards analysis of the coming election is not based on what appear to be profound and deep thinking on the part of Asherman--who hits all the right notes.
However, I am much more simplistic. I rely on two broad indices--
1. Peace
and
2. Prosperity
If the Iraqis have the situation in hand by September and we begin to withdraw troops and if the 40 or 50 Million 401K's show that the fortunes of the American worker are rising, the Republicans will remain in power in both houses since, as it appears that no one has mentioned, the last political re-organization based on the 2000 census has resulted in creating the smallest number of "contested seats" in memory. The Democrats carved out districts to support House Democrats as did the Republicans.
As Asherman wisely noted--Two weeks is a lifetime in politics.
One party is trying to rethink the relevance issue.
Optimistic, Democrats Debate the Party's Vision
