Obama '08?

It's invigorating to see my opponents have to resort to Dicto simpliciter to try to bring down their opponents. Way to go Cyc. Keep up the good work.

0 Replies

McGentrix wrote:

It's invigorating to see my opponents have to resort to Dicto simpliciter to try to bring down their opponents. Way to go Cyc. Keep up the good work.

McCain is busy bringing himself down without my help, thank you very much.

Between claiming that Social Security is a 'disgrace' and having his economic adviser calling our current situation a 'psychological recession,' McCain's camp can't keep their feet out of their mouths these days...

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

I don't think either candidate is doing very hot, cyclops. They are both flops, Obama being the worst in my opinion, and I have talked to quite a few people just not much excited about either one of them. In fact, clearly most people I've talked to are very unhappy with the choice presented them. I would like to see a poll asking, are you very happy, somewhat happy, slightly happy, slightly disappointed, somewhat disappointed, or very disappointed in the presidential choice this year. I bet the highest number would be on the some degree of disappointment side.

0 Replies

okie wrote:

I don't think either candidate is doing very hot, cyclops. They are both flops, Obama being the worst in my opinion, and I have talked to quite a few people just not much excited about either one of them. In fact, clearly most people I've talked to are very unhappy with the choice presented them. I would like to see a poll asking, are you very happy, somewhat happy, slightly happy, slightly disappointed, somewhat disappointed, or very disappointed in the presidential choice this year. I bet the highest number would be on the some degree of disappointment side.

Yes, but you are hardly a centrist, Okie; you don't like Obama because he is a Liberal, and you would be against all Liberals. And most people you 'talk to' are also Conservatives, that's what a rural life in OK will give ya.

The Dems are far more excited about our candidate then the Republicans; I'll see if I can scare up a graph. In the meantime, though you say 'neither candidate is doing very hot,' Obama is maintaining a significant lead in the national polls and the state polls; if the election were held today, he would easily win. Obama doesn't need to change the game from this point on, McCain does, and his fumbles and f*ckups are not going to accomplish that.

If McCain keeps blathering about Social Security, he'll lose by a much larger margin then he is currently losing now. He needs to get on top of message control pronto.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

Funny that when one candidate is far ahead of the opposition, the trailing candidate is in the same struggle.

It's just a creative spin to frame the two as being on par. The truth is that McCain is trailing.

T
K
O

0 Replies

okie wrote:

I don't think either candidate is doing very hot, cyclops. They are both flops, Obama being the worst in my opinion, and I have talked to quite a few people just not much excited about either one of them. In fact, clearly most people I've talked to are very unhappy with the choice presented them. I would like to see a poll asking, are you very happy, somewhat happy, slightly happy, slightly disappointed, somewhat disappointed, or very disappointed in the presidential choice this year. I bet the highest number would be on the some degree of disappointment side.

how about proud? will proud do?

FOX News Poll: Americans Proud to Have Obama, McCain as President

Quote:

0 Replies

Speaking solely about strategy, perhaps it hurt McCain that the GOP primary ended so early. I don't think the nation has felt the needed energy from his camp since Huckabee left the race.

For all the hardship the long dem primary created, I think it was actually good for Obama. It hasn't even been that long since Hillary left the race, and I already feel like the divide in the party voters is pretty much trivial at this point.

I think one difference between McCain's and Obama's primary campaigns was that Obama's gained his party interest, where as McCain didn't really grab up many moderates.

In my opinion, Rush's Project Chaos/Mayham/whatever, was a total backfire.

T
K
O

0 Replies

please keep in mind there is only a 4pt polling difference between Obama and McCain. Not that polls mean anything, but there it is.

Not really all that great a lead and hardly insurmountable.

0 Replies

McGentrix wrote:

please keep in mind there is only a 4pt polling difference between Obama and McCain. Not that polls mean anything, but there it is.

Not really all that great a lead and hardly insurmountable.

This is factually untrue.

Graph of polling average.

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO600.png

RealClearPolitics Polling average:

RCP National Average Obama: 48.2 McCain: 43.2 Obama +5.0

McCain has lead in one poll out of the last 35 or so that have been taken and tied in one additional poll; you have to go back almost 2 months to see that one-poll lead, tho.

He's also doing great in State polling, currently enjoying a lead in EVERY state that Kerry won, plus a solid lead in OH, CO, NM. At this point if McCain doesn't do something drastic he is going to lose; and you know it, McG.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

Insurmountable: no.

However, McCain has been down for so long. If McCain could do it, it makes little sense to stay down. Unless he is trying to muster the underdog brand. I just don't think he will get his stuff together and be able to compete with Obama.

Of course, McCain may just not care for the public's view, in which case, I especially don't want him as our Commander and Chief.

T
K
O

0 Replies

It may not be insurmountable, but it does put the way most people feel about Obama vs. what some of what I have reading from some conservatives concerning Obama in perspective. Personally I am surprised; I would thought he would steadily start going down in numbers once we got into the general. I am not saying it can't happen; just saying I am surprised it ain't happened so far.

0 Replies

revel wrote:

It may not be insurmountable, but it does put the way most people feel about Obama vs. what some of what I have reading from some conservatives concerning Obama in perspective. Personally I am surprised; I would thought he would steadily start going down in numbers once we got into the general. I am not saying it can't happen; just saying I am surprised it ain't happened so far.

The opposite, in fact; his lead over McCain has increased to its' largest point ever in the polling averages.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

Cycloptichorn wrote:

McGentrix wrote:
please keep in mind there is only a 4pt polling difference between Obama and McCain. Not that polls mean anything, but there it is.

This is factually untrue.

RealClearPolitics Polling average:

RCP National Average Obama: 48.2 McCain: 43.2 Obama +5.0

Cycloptichorn

perhaps you could consider giving McG the benefit of the one point difference.

4 points. 5 points. It will matter at the end, but today, not so much.

It does suggest that they both need to step things up.

0 Replies

Quote:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 48% to 45%. This is the first time that McCain has been within three points of Obama with or without leaners since June 20. Data released yesterday also showed McCain improving his position slightly in Missouri and New Jersey.

Looks like 4 pts to me. So, I guess that would make it factually correct. Now, take your hyperventilation elsewhere Cyc.

How many more Ayers, Wrights or Jacksons does Obama have hiding in his closet? I think the debates will shed a lot of light on each candidate. We'll see where things go from there.

0 Replies

McCain supporters seem to think that Obama can lose by swift boating him with Rev Wrights, Ayers, and Jacksons, but I'm willing to bet, that if McCain does win, they'll be the first to come out and give credit to McCain's character and politics.

Does the right have any new ideas? Cyclo, I think you hit it on the head. They ran out, and now the game is to simply criticize the opposition sense they don't have things to promote.

T
K
O

0 Replies

McGentrix wrote:

Quote:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 48% to 45%. This is the first time that McCain has been within three points of Obama with or without leaners since June 20. Data released yesterday also showed McCain improving his position slightly in Missouri and New Jersey.

Looks like 4 pts to me. So, I guess that would make it factually correct. Now, take your hyperventilation elsewhere Cyc.

No, you picked ONE poll out of a huge range of different polls. I picked an average. Your number is definably less correct.

Quote:

How many more Ayers, Wrights or Jacksons does Obama have hiding in his closet? I think the debates will shed a lot of light on each candidate. We'll see where things go from there.

Obama is going to murder, absolutely destroy, McCain in the debates. McCain is an extremely poor debater. How you can have forgotten this is beyond me.

Can you point out the time when Obama's numbers significantly dropped due to the 'problems' you mentioned? While he had to deal with the Wright issue, nobody gives a damn about Ayers or Jackson at all, and you know it... it certainly hasn't been reflected in any polling.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

McGentrix wrote:

Quote:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 48% to 45%. This is the first time that McCain has been within three points of Obama with or without leaners since June 20. Data released yesterday also showed McCain improving his position slightly in Missouri and New Jersey.

Looks like 4 pts to me. So, I guess that would make it factually correct. Now, take your hyperventilation elsewhere Cyc.

How many more Ayers, Wrights or Jacksons does Obama have hiding in his closet? I think the debates will shed a lot of light on each candidate. We'll see where things go from there.

Actually it probably is factually correct. Rasmussen has as good a track record for accuracy as any polling outfit. What Cyclop didn't bother to mention, however, is that the gap has narrowed from 6 pts to 4 pts this week. If Obama continues to stumble and McCain is effective in getting his message out, I think that trend might continue.

0 Replies

ehBeth wrote:

okie wrote:
I don't think either candidate is doing very hot, cyclops. They are both flops, Obama being the worst in my opinion, and I have talked to quite a few people just not much excited about either one of them. In fact, clearly most people I've talked to are very unhappy with the choice presented them. I would like to see a poll asking, are you very happy, somewhat happy, slightly happy, slightly disappointed, somewhat disappointed, or very disappointed in the presidential choice this year. I bet the highest number would be on the some degree of disappointment side.

how about proud? will proud do?

FOX News Poll: Americans Proud to Have Obama, McCain as President

Quote:

I suppose "proud" sort of fits, although not exactly. I would rather see a poll with my questions.

In regard to polls about who will win, they don't mean a whole lot right now in my opinion. It is an eternity until November, and any number of events could change the dynamics overnight. If Obama does things right, I think he can in fact win, but he could also lose narrowly or even badly, depending upon a few things. McCain could win easily if he would just get with the program. There are all kinds of opportunities staring him in the face.

0 Replies

I agree with both McG and cyclo that the debates will be meaningful.

0 Replies

Foxfyre wrote:

McGentrix wrote:
Quote:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, Obama leads 48% to 45%. This is the first time that McCain has been within three points of Obama with or without leaners since June 20. Data released yesterday also showed McCain improving his position slightly in Missouri and New Jersey.

Looks like 4 pts to me. So, I guess that would make it factually correct. Now, take your hyperventilation elsewhere Cyc.

How many more Ayers, Wrights or Jacksons does Obama have hiding in his closet? I think the debates will shed a lot of light on each candidate. We'll see where things go from there.

Actually it probably is factually correct. Rasmussen has as good a track record for accuracy as any polling outfit. What Cyclop didn't bother to mention, however, is that the gap has narrowed from 6 pts to 4 pts this week. If Obama continues to stumble and McCain is effective in getting his message out, I think that trend might continue.

You are as clueless about polling as McG is.

The Ras poll is a daily tracking poll with a rolling average. The average goes up and down all the time. It isn't as accurate a predictor as an average of multiple polls.

And neither of you has addressed the fact that Obama is significantly ahead in single-state polling, and is within just a few points in states such as NC, MS, and even TX. He's winning OH and VA, not to mention some of the others I listed in earlier posts. McCain is having to drop money to defend traditional strongholds. From a tactical standpoint, Obama is enjoying a large advantage at the moment: bigger then Kerry or Bush EVER had a lead over each other, and bigger then Gore or Bush EVER had a lead over each other as well.

Keep telling yourselves that everything is going great. I hope McCain does that as well. For it means an Obama victory is imminent.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

Related Topics

Quick Links

My Account

able2know