Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Mon 30 Oct, 2006 05:57 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
I've considered Obama a stronger contender than Hillary since Soz started the thread... but frankly I am stunned at how fast he's closed the gap. Being two years out, I think his progress is amazing. Obama fans should be very excited.


Not excited, scared that he will be convinced to run in '08.

The long-term view is damned hard to take these days

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Mon 30 Oct, 2006 06:56 pm
I may not have Cyclop's thinking down. But I think I do. Obama may be reaching for the brass ring too early. I hope the Dems will be very cautious in selecting their candidate in 2008.
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Mon 30 Oct, 2006 07:09 pm
I'm as skittish about him running in 08 as anyone - but I don't know that waiting 4 years would make things come together in a more optimal way.

There may be no better time.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Mon 30 Oct, 2006 08:22 pm
What would happen if Obama ran in 2008 and 2012?
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Mon 30 Oct, 2006 08:24 pm
Never considered that scenario, C.I.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Tue 31 Oct, 2006 07:12 am
That was the point of the article in Walter's post from yesterday.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Tue 31 Oct, 2006 07:44 am
Quote:

Albuquerque Journal

And from the print edition (page A7) the caricature

http://i12.tinypic.com/4dq8wi1.jpg
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Tue 31 Oct, 2006 10:11 am
This grossly overstates and mischaracterizes the majority of thoughtful folks who are just looking for reasoned and ethical leadership, to whom Obama presents a refreshing change.

I don't understand the need to reduce everything to caricature.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Tue 31 Oct, 2006 10:18 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
And from the print edition (page A7) the caricature

Razz

Reminds me of "The Life of Brian". "I've got his sandal!"
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Sat 4 Nov, 2006 05:55 pm
Very convincing bit in the Economist about why Obama should run in '08.

http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8080778

Just in case it requires registration, I'm pasting here.
Quote:
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Sat 4 Nov, 2006 06:32 pm
If I see Obama having a chance of winning in 08, he gets my vote.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Sat 4 Nov, 2006 06:34 pm
If anything, Obama will bring this country back closer to the pre-Bush era. That alone has me excited.
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Tue 7 Nov, 2006 12:16 am
This is an editorial from The Nation magazine by a black Briton who is a columnist for an English paper The Guardian -Gary Younge - I think it gives an interesting perspective on the "Obamarama" phenomenon of the past few months and of the expectations Obama is facing.

I think it makes salient points about that darn race thing and American elections.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Obama is, of course, a worthy subject. He is the smartest, savviest, handsomest and most charismatic man in the Senate--sadly, the competition is not great. In an era when America's political class lacks character and intelligence, he stands out. What little the nation has seen of him, it has liked. But none of this quite explains the magnitude of the Obamathon currently taking place.

Perhaps what the nation has liked most is not what Obama has said or done but what he is. In short, Obama is a black man who does not scare white people. This is mostly not Obama's fault. He is who he is. He has a life to live, a job to do and a book to promote. He cannot be held responsible for a white paranoia that--outside the music, sports and entertainment industries--demands: If you have to be black, then please don't be too black.

It is impossible to understand his currency or his trajectory without taking this into account. Describing the crowd's reaction to him in Rockford, Illinois, Time's Joe Klein noted: "The African Americans tend to be fairly reserved.... The white people, by contrast, are out of control." White commentators get out of control too. David Brooks wrote, "With his multiethnic family and his globe-spanning childhood, there is a little piece of everything in Obama." Klein has ranked Obama alongside Colin Powell, Tiger Woods, Oprah Winfrey and Michael Jordan as "black people who...seem to have an iconic power over the American imagination because they transcend racial stereotypes."

Quite how a person "transcends" anything to do with race in the United States in 2006 is difficult to fathom. In a country where whites were five times more likely than blacks to believe that racism played no part in the Katrina debacle, you are far more likely to "transcend" gravity.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

read the whole article here...

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061113/younge
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 7 Nov, 2006 01:02 am
Excellent article, snood. Thanks for sharing it. T.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Wed 8 Nov, 2006 09:19 am
These elections have to have helped Obama, don't you think? By all accounts he worked tirelessly to get exactly this result, and must have made a lot of friends and earned a lot of favors in doing so.
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Wed 8 Nov, 2006 09:21 am
...And if this article from a blog posted on Real Politics is an indication, people will be wasting no time trying to find chinks in the Obama armor...

-----------------------------------------------------------------

"Funny thing, though, in Illinois, where he was
a minor player in the state Senate before national media
adulation propelled him into the presidential spotlight, his glow
might have begun to dim.

At question is a newly disclosed suspicious deal he made with an indicted political fundraiser to improve their adjoining properties in a pricey neighborhood on Chicago' South Side. The "neighbor" in the deal is
Antoin "Tony" Rezko, who indicted for plotting to squeeze millions of dollars in kickbacks out of firms seeking state business. He has pleaded not guilty, but allegations muddied the campaign of Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who nonetheless was re-elected Tuesday by ever-forgiving Illinois voters."

--------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/11/for_obama_problems_at_home.html
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Wed 8 Nov, 2006 03:20 pm
Yeah, I saw that maybe two weeks ago, doesn't seem to have much to it. We'll see.

Meanwhile, I realized that Deval Patrick is a great test case for what we've been talking about re: polls vs. actual election results -- the idea that people are more willing to SAY that they'll vote for a black candidate than actually vote for him or her.

And the results are encouraging.

I found this from October 1st, 2006:

Quote:
Fifty-five percent of voters surveyed supported Patrick, while Healey, the Republican nominee, was backed by 30 percent. Independent Christy Mihos received 7 percent, and Green-Rainbow Party candidate Grace Ross got 1 percent. Six percent said they were undecided.


Source

So how did it actually shake out?

Patrick won with 56% percent of the vote (one MORE percentage point than the poll, which I chose because it seemed be one that indicated a big lead). Healey ended up getting 35% -- more of the undecideds seemed to go in her direction. Mihos did indeed get 7 percent, and the Green-Rainbow party candidate ended up with 2%.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/governor/

So that's good news in terms of the utility of polls re: Obama. If polls indicate a lot of support, this seems to indicate that it's actual support that will translate to votes.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Wed 8 Nov, 2006 03:34 pm
sozobe wrote:
Yeah, I saw that maybe two weeks ago, doesn't seem to have much to it. We'll see.


Well, it actually had been a topic ... locally, in Chicago.
There had been a two page interview in the Sun-Times last week with Obama about it:

Obama on Rezko deal: It was a mistake

http://i13.tinypic.com/33zcyna.jpg
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Wed 8 Nov, 2006 03:44 pm
Still doesn't seem to have much to it. Not great mind you, but nothing really damaging. That's what I mean about "we'll see..." What sort of an impact it has.
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Wed 8 Nov, 2006 03:48 pm
My point was that they will be trying to find things to tear him down, not that this particular one had merit.

Mind you, I've caught myself actually hoping he runs - and wins...
0 Replies
 
 

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