Obama '08?

While Democrats prematurely rub their hands with glee, hoping for that November to remember when they reclaim control of the House of Representatives and maybe even the Senate, we point to the real importance of the day after Election Day: the start of the 2008 presidential campaign.

Regardless of what happens on the high end of Pennsylvania Avenue, every important political debate that follows will take place in the context of the contest to replace George W. Bush.

For the first time since Dwight Eisenhower faced Adlai Stevenson in 1952, the race for the White House is a truly open seat in both parties, with no vice president hoping to step up and no incumbent seeking a second term.

The pilgrimages to Iowa and New Hampshire have long been under way. You can never see the butter cow or the butter "Last Supper" at the Iowa State Fair too many times. Just as you can never make too many trips to Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire or explore other mountain delights before the onset of winter.

The likely field is obvious. Somebody named Clinton, somebody named McCain. At least one-third of the remaining U.S. senators will look in the mirror and think this is their time. Any number of governors will try to capture that coveted anybody-but-somebody-from-Washington vote. A non "politician." A gadfly or two. Probably not another go by Morry Taylor the "tire king."

Which leads us to the more interesting question, as provincial as it is global: Will Barack Obama run?

There's a reflexive response among many Democrats when the subject is broached. He's too young, they say, too inexperienced. He hasn't accomplished anything in the Senate. He should wait.

Let's demolish those one by one. He would be older than Bill Clinton and John Kennedy were when they ran; he would have more experience than John Edwards. And, think now, when was the last time any senator wooed voters by telling them about a bill he or she sponsored?

And just what should he wait for? In four years, he would either be challenging an incumbent president in his own party (read: political suicide) or an incumbent president in the other party. In eight years, he is likely to be facing either an incumbent from his party, or a presumptive nominee in the person of a sitting vice president.

And how exactly would he spend that time? Few politicians get more popular the more time they spend in the United States Senate. Each day that Obama is there, arguably, is a day when his chances diminish. All those votes, all those needless orations, all that time losing your ability to utter a simple, forceful declarative sentence.

Which in no way minimizes the challenge of an Obama campaign. He has, in fact, never run anything. His jokes about not accomplishing anything in the Senate are sure to be turned against him. Others have been planning this part of their lives almost since birth (think Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana). Who knows the impact on his young family and whether his wife, Michelle, is willing to make the extraordinary sacrifice in privacy that a campaign requires. Who wants the "Truman Show" life?

To run is to risk, though, and Obama is a proven risk taker. In the race that nobody remembers, he lost a primary to Rep. Bobby Rush (D-Ill.), but he took the chance. When he ran for the Senate, most people thought it was more for practice than for real. His reward--just for winning the primary--was a spot on the big stage as the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention. Talk to any Republican or Democrat and ask whether he or she would rather see Obama or Sen. John Kerry run in '08.

As Theodore Roosevelt said, credit goes to those who enter the arena.

Obama is his party's prom king, the guy everybody wants next to them at the dance. There is no better draw in the party today among any of those who still have a future in elective politics. It's seductive. And it has caused some early queries to go out, subtle questions about future support and availability should he light the candle on a campaign. There has been an evolution in his thinking, from "no way" to "you never know."

So what's wrong with now? Not much. Obama will never be new again.

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(As an aside, I think the tragic car accident is the one JPB's daughter is having to deal with [as someone who knew one of the dead boys], very sad.)

In Davenport a local reporter asks the question directly: "Are you running for President in 2008?" Obama surprises me by saying he's just thinking about the 2006 election right now, which, in the semiotic dance of presidential politics, is definitely not a no. A few days later, I ask Obama the obvious follow-up question: Will he think about running for President in 2008 when the congressional election is over? "When the election is over and my book tour is done, I will think about how I can be most useful to the country and how I can reconcile that with being a good dad and a good husband," he says carefully, and then adds, "I haven't completely decided or unraveled that puzzle yet."

Which is even closer to a yes--or, perhaps, it's just a clever strategy to gin up some publicity at the launch of his book tour.

You are all playing into Republicans' hand by dicerting your attention away from 2006 unless sozobe is really a Republican.

While Sen. Barack Obama launches the most public of book tours, with appearances on "Oprah Winfrey," the "Today" show, "Larry King Live" and "Meet the Press," he also is more intensively examining whether to run for president in 2008, reaching out to Democratic operatives and trying to reconcile the demands of a national campaign on his family.

Obama (D-Ill.) has been having quiet conversations with colleagues and friends about a prospective White House run, but a key concern is whether his wife, Michelle, would support it and whether he could manage the time away from their two young daughters.

"He has gotten the presidential bug bite," said Donna Brazile, campaign manager for Al Gore in 2000. "Barack is constantly calling, he's constantly talking to people. He's not calling me to check on the weather. I'm not saying he's in, but he's checking the water. He's having lots of conversations." Brazile said she is scheduled to talk politics with Obama shortly after Election Day.

Sen. Dick Durbin, Illinois' senior Democratic senator and a strong proponent of an Obama presidential bid, said his colleague has learned more about international affairs and the workings of the federal government in his brief Senate career than most governors who run for president. Staying in the Senate, Durbin said, will only provide opponents with more targets as Obama continues to cast votes.

"I said to him, 'Do you really think sticking around the Senate for four more years and casting a thousand more votes will make you more qualified for president?'" Durbin said. "The critical element that remains that he has to face is whether he is willing to be separated from his family for longer periods of time and I think he is staring that right in the face."
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