Eyeing Obama coattails
The Hill
03/12/08
Democratic lawmakers are becoming persuaded that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) would have a more positive impact on other Democrats on the November ballot than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.).
Obama's advantage over Clinton would be most pronounced in the Southern and Western states President Bush carried in 2000 and 2004, say lawmakers interviewed by The Hill. In total, 32 members of Congress from these "red states" have endorsed Obama. Twenty-two lawmakers from those states have backed Clinton.
Obama will "bring new people into the process in Southern states, there's no question about it," said Rep. James Clyburn, the House Democratic whip from South Carolina. "In these Southern states he's bringing out more people, young people, African-Americans. They're being energized by him."
Clyburn, who has stayed neutral in the primary, said Obama at the top of the ticket would "certainly" do more to help other Democratic candidates, citing South Carolina and Mississippi specifically.
Bush won both South Carolina and Mississippi by nearly 20 points.
A Southern House Democrat who faces a difficult reelection this year said Obama "has the potential to bring more folks to the polls and swell the ranks of Democrats." The lawmaker, who has not endorsed either candidate, declined to speak on the record because Clinton may become the nominee.
Lawmakers have begun looking more closely at how the nominee may affect their own reelections or influence races in their states. Sensing this, Obama supporters have pushed their colleagues to consider how Obama and Clinton would impact Democratic candidates in November.
"I've had quiet conversations with a number of members," said Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), who has endorsed Obama. "I don't think there's any doubt about it, Obama would be more helpful to House candidates virtually everywhere.
"He has unique appeal to moderates, independents and Republicans," said Boucher. "And I think he has enormous crossover potential."
Democrats backing Clinton, not surprisingly, have a different take. Reps. Alcee Hastings (Fla.) and Vic Snyder (Ark.), two Southern Democrats, say Obama and Clinton would be equally helpful at the head of the ticket.
The impact of the party nominee on House races has become a subject of interest to Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.). He said his committee may begin poll-testing how the nomination of Obama or Clinton could affect various races.
Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), who at first endorsed Clinton but then switched to Obama, said he thought Obama would do more to help Democratic candidates in his state by boosting Democratic turnout. He said the nominee's influence on other races "is a general thrust of the conversation" in the House between Obama supporters and lawmakers on the fence.
That argument has proved persuasive with many red-state superdelegates, whose votes would go toward determining the party nominee at a brokered convention. Obama has won a slew of endorsements from Democrats representing solidly Republican states and districts. Obama has picked up congressional endorsements from Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, North and South Dakota, Mississippi, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Clinton has not collected congressional endorsements from any of these states, according to a tally kept by The Hill.
Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), an Obama booster, touted the disparity during a recent appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press."
"You ask any elected official, virtually any elected official west of the Mississippi, and they say, without equivocation, ?'We want Barack Obama at the top of the ticket.' They'll say that privately," said Daschle.
Several Democratic governors from Western states that Bush won have endorsed Obama, including Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Janet Napolitano of Arizona.
Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.), who has not endorsed in the race, said that Obama would certainly increase Democratic turnout in Mississippi but he added he could not predict exactly how that would affect the political landscape.
"Obviously Obama has a huge African-American turnout," said Taylor. "But there are still some folks who can't vote for a black person, and they're going to vote, too."
Taylor said that Clinton remains a divisive figure in his home state: "It's easy to say the Clintons were not very popular in Mississippi."
Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe argued in a conference call with reporters Wednesday that Clinton would fare poorly in red states. [..]
"I think it's important to the party ?- the Democratic Party simply cannot afford to have another election where we have a very narrow playing field, and where we have no margin of error," said Plouffe. "I think that the comments speak to the fact that states like North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, are going to be very difficult for Sen. Clinton to put in play."
Republicans have indicated they would try to use Clinton's unpopularity in conservative areas of the country against Democratic candidates.
At the end of last year, Republicans produced an online political advertisement that compared Clinton with Sen. Mary Landrieu (La.), one of the Senate's most vulnerable Democrats. The ad described Landrieu and Clinton as "two peas in a pod."
