High Seas
 
  1  
Wed 12 Mar, 2008 04:55 pm
spendius wrote:
...............

Latest UK Betting-

Quote:
Barack Obama 6/5
John Mc Cain 6/4
Hillary Clinton 3/1
Al Gore 50/1
Wayne Root 100/1
Ralph Nader 500/1


.............


Spendius - thanks for the odds you posted, but does your source also indicate volume of bets for each candidate? How much do bookies actually collect - daily, or weekly, or however statistics are made available - at the posted probabilities? Any rules on how often they can change odds quoted? Many thanks.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Wed 12 Mar, 2008 04:58 pm
cicerone imposter wrote:
Obama doesn't have wings, but Hillary just added about ten pounds of weight on her own campaign. She isn't sunk yet, but she's doing everything to make sure she does drown.


He doesn't have wings?!

Hillary has conducted a less than stellar campaign. The nomination was hers to lose and her ill considered attempt to paint Obama as the "Black Candidate," almost assured such a loss. Recently though she has learned that attacking Obama might work, so expect months of more attacks. If, however, she makes the utterly foolish attempt to reintroduce, in any way, race into the contest she will find all of her recent gains to be for naught.

Attack his inexperience, attack his attempt to bewitch voters, attack him for pie in the sky policies, but attack him in any way shape or form that smacks of race, and her efforts will blow up in her face.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Wed 12 Mar, 2008 05:00 pm
Who's Wayne Root?
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Wed 12 Mar, 2008 05:06 pm
blatham wrote:
Miller

I believe that your contributions here really deserve a more thorough study. I shall immediately set to this task...




http://images.salon.com/mwt/feature/2008/03/12/poo/cover.jpg


Obama v Clinton --- what a cornucopia of ironic treats.

I don't know that blatham has ever used this scatalogical barb on one of us dread reivers from the Right.

Miller consider yourself one of The Unclean. Blatham has cast you out of the clan of The People, and set you to walk the wasteland alone and without salt.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Wed 12 Mar, 2008 05:31 pm
revel wrote:
Then why wasn't Jesse Jackson ahead in the race when he ran? Answer; because Obama has a lot to offer to people of all races; creeds and gender which is why a lot of white people are voting for him too when they didn't vote for Jesse Jackson.

The kind of campaign Hillary is running has been shameful and disappointing; that we are even speaking in this vein in the democratic race among fellow democrats is just a let down and it is Hillary and her compaign's fault.


And Ferraro, the previous darling of Dems is also shameful?

Jesse didn't get the affirmative action beneft because he was always an African-American man running on a platform that was essentially directed at African-Americans. This made sense since he was really running for president of African-America.

But Obama, he's not, in any way, a threatening Black Male candidate Let's face it, this was precisely what the Clintons hoped they could lay on him. It didn't work because his "blackness" is comfortable, it's restrained within his preacher like rhetoric. The only real "race" problems he faces are where he makes a point, indirectly by his membership in Rev Wright's church, that blacks are not so easily swept into a feel-good amalgemation of Unity.

This is the evidence of the incredibly stupid strategy of the Clintons. Obama speaks with a certain tone, and he has some personal ties and actions upon which one might infer, but there is nothing in his campaign that is laser focused on African-Americans, and that's the way his white supporters like it. The Black Community was, justifiably so, wary of Obama, and absent the perseption that Clinton tactics were racist, they would still be so.

Snood and I have gone around on this (with civility I might add), but I just can't bring myself to accept that people who wondered if Obama was "black enough" really wondered "Will the White Man vote for him."

It truly is a shame that the color of his skin makes any difference at all, but unfortunately it does and not only as respects people who profess to be bigoted.

Whether he wins the White House or not his candidacy will be very helpful in terms of flushing some of this race nonsense down the drain.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Wed 12 Mar, 2008 05:40 pm
Obama's reaction to this whole thing here:

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/03/obama_stop_slicing_and_dicing.html

I quoted some of it on the Ferraro thread, will quote a different part of it here:

Quote:
"Here's what I do believe,'' Obama said. "I think that [Ferraro's] comments were ridiculous. I think they were wrong-headed. I think they're not borne out of our history or by the facts. The notion that it is a great advantage for me to be an African American named Barack Obama in pursuit of the presidency, I think, is not a view that is commonly shared by the general public.

"If you pulled out a handbook of how to weigh your assets and liabilities in a presidential race,'' he said, "I don't think my name or my skin color would be in the asset column.

"Part of the idea of this campaign is that we can get beyond his and focus on what we have in common,'' he said. "Now, it's hard to do. I understand it's hard to do. I understand it's very tempting to look at exit polls and take a look at how the votes are breaking down and who's going where. I don't want to deny the role of race and gender in our society.

"They're there and they're powerful. But I don't think it's productive. I don't think identity politics has served the Democratic Party well. I think it's been an enormous distraction. When we are in these conversations, it means that people are not recognizing their common concerns around health care, their common interests in getting decent jobs, their common interests in making sure that we're not loading up the national debt for the next generation. So to that extent, I think it was an unfortunate remark and I said so. It encourages and feeds into the divisive politics that ultimately does not serve us wellÂ…

"Here is what I believe,'' he said. "The American people are looking for a president who cares about them who is listening to them who is fighting for them and who can deliver on some of the critical issues that they are facing. If I make that case, I will win. If I don't make that case, I will lose.''


A comment at the Swamp:

Quote:
I can't say the obamessiah doesn't have a point.


:-)
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Wed 12 Mar, 2008 06:24 pm
Put it this way High Seas. If you arrived at a William Hill betting office counter with $50 grand in a carrier bag and asked to put it on Mr Gore at 50 to 1 they would call the cops.

Putting it on BO they would go 11 to 10, notify head office so they could check if there was a pattern developing, and shift the Goddess out to 7 to 2. Warily.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Wed 12 Mar, 2008 08:37 pm
Too bad Pa is so far away.The Clinton campaign is reeling right now.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 02:58 am
sozobe wrote:
Obama's reaction to this whole thing here:

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/03/obama_stop_slicing_and_dicing.html

I quoted some of it on the Ferraro thread, will quote a different part of it here:

Quote:
"... I understand it's very tempting to look at exit polls and take a look at how the votes are breaking down and who's going where. I don't want to deny the role of race and gender in our society.

"They're there and they're powerful. But I don't think it's productive. I don't think identity politics has served the Democratic Party well. I think it's been an enormous distraction. When we are in these conversations, it means that people are not recognizing their common concerns around health care, their common interests in getting decent jobs, their common interests in making sure that we're not loading up the national debt for the next generation. ...''


A comment at the Swamp:

Quote:
I can't say the obamessiah doesn't have a point.


:-)


Sozobe, I hope you don't mind I used your quote of Obama, but shortened it to illustrate a point, a point that I would like to make to nimh and others here, that constantly analyzing the demographics of voters is informative, yes, but is it really very productive? I quote Obama, apparently agreeing with me. So there you have it, nimh, as I said, you do good work, but again, count me as one that is rather tired of it all. I think the comments about this were actually on another thread, the one about polls, etc., but bottom line, I feel vindicated by none other than Mr. Obama himself. I was ridiculed by some there on that thread, by Obama supporters by the way. So I agree with Obama, I am rather tired of the racial analysis that goes on infinitem.

To expand on it a bit, I give credit to Obama for recognizing that the Democratic Party has used identity politics, which he thinks has not served the party well. My translation is that the party has demagogued the Republicans by using race and other identity politics, to its advantage, but perhaps the Obama / Clinton battle is instructive to at least a few people as to who the real racists are.
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 06:20 am
Thanks Sozobe for bringing that article. Obama has a way of cutting to the heart of the matter and in my opinion that is the reason he has done as well as he has so far.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 07:42 am
JPB wrote:
nimh wrote:
But Keyes as Senate candidate is a different matter altogether. Illinois as a state is leaning very Democratic nowadays - well, you know, you live there. But the 14th district is a Republican stronghold. You're talking about a seat that had been Republican for at least 50 years! It wasnt just Hastert; his four predecessors were all Republicans too, all the way back at least to 1958.

This should have been a very safe Republican seat, even apart from the Republicans having spent over a million dollars on it and McCain having campaigned for Oberweis.


The 14th District includes what is now the 'Research Corridor' of Chicagoland. Aurora, Batavia, St. Charles, Elgin, and Carpentersville are all very much part of the Chicago suburban sprawl that has become more and more Democratic (as have the rest of the Chicago suburbs). Traveling east on I-88 from DeKalb toward Chicago you hit the wall of Chicagoland at Aurora. It's an interesting site... farmland, open land, more farms and then, BAM - just west of Aurora you hit Chicagoland it's associated masses. That wall is moving ever westward and as more people move into the 14th District it will in all likelihood become less conservative in it's politics.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/62/IL14_109.gif



A belated thank you to you, JPB, as well as to Sozobe and Joefromchicago, for all the additional info about Illinois' 14 district. That was very interesting, thanks!
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 08:04 am
okie wrote:
a point that I would like to make to nimh and others here, that constantly analyzing the demographics of voters is informative, yes, but is it really very productive? I quote Obama, apparently agreeing with me. So there you have it, nimh, as I said, you do good work, but again, count me as one that is rather tired of it all. I think the comments about this were actually on another thread, the one about polls, etc., but bottom line, I feel vindicated by none other than Mr. Obama himself. I was ridiculed by some there on that thread, by Obama supporters by the way. So I agree with Obama, I am rather tired of the racial analysis that goes on infinitem.

I agree with Obama that speaking in political terms, such analyses are not very "productive".

At least - let me insert a caveat - not in terms of putting them out as part of the public debate. The more the public debate is about racial demographics, the more Obama is hampered in putting his message out. So I definitely can understand his frustration. But dont think for a moment that the Obama campaign isnt itself crunching these numbers very hard every day as well, internally! Because they do matter, and they do determine election outcomes.

In short, if Obama were to say, "we ourselves do not care about such analyses and dont engage in them," I wouldnt believe him for a moment. But yes, he's totally right to point out that the more oxygen they take up in the media narrative, the harder it becomes for him, and the Democratic Party as a whole, to center the debate on issues. In that sense, these discussions do not "serve the Democratic Party well," as Obama put it.

But here's the point. I am not here to "serve the Democratic Party". I'm not even an American. I am here to discuss elements of the elections and election outcomes that interest me. Period.

Demographics and political geography have always interested me. In any elections. They are a significant enough chunk of my motivation to follow these elections so in-depth in the first place. That major interest stays, independent from any momentary strategical political considerations of what discussion benefits which political candidate or party. My interest in the issue doesnt wane just because it's not politically expedient for my preferred candidate.

So I will do my thing. I am not a campaigner in this race, and I have in fact banged on several times about how I think it's actually detrimental to the discussions here for posters to start coming here with their campaigner hat on. They should post their own critical observations on the things that interest them, and leave the badgering, self-censoring and talking up of their respective camps to when they're out campaigning.

Meanwhile, though the whole polls, graphs, stats, maps and demographics thing is just fascinating to me, I sure know it's not everyone's thing! So if you're tired of that aspect, I can certainly understand. Luckily, that kind of analysis has its own thread, the Polls etc thread, so if you're not personally interested it is very easy to avoid the worst of it. Mind you, I'd miss your input - you're pretty much the only Republican occasionally posting there - but yeah, totally, we should all try to just avoid what will only annoy us anyway.
0 Replies
 
nappyheadedhohoho
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 10:10 am
The beginning of the end for the Obama campaign
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 10:30 am
spendius wrote:
Quote:
How long before we find out Obama has a SouthSide cutie ( in hiding), not his wife?


He couldn't possibly risk that. Talk about a hostage to fortune. No chance.

Any half way grown up Pharoe or Ceasar is another matter.

We are Christians aren't we Bernie?


Hardly. Everything past animism is whorish.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 11:04 am
Quote:

This race is not going to be decided, at least, until the FL and MI delegates are resolved (Remember our bet Cyclo), and probably not until the convention.


Hmm, was our bet that they would not matter, or that they would not matter as currently voted?

Doesn't matter either way; a re-vote isn't as likely to happen as you think. It would have to be approved by the DOJ before going forward, and there are a lot of legal issues to take into account. I wouldn't bet on a revote happening just yet.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 11:04 am
John Carlson has it wrong; the reason is very simple to determine. Hillary continues to shoot herself in the foot, and more people will see that she's a loose canon who's only goal is power.

Hillary represents the "old" guard, and Obama's message of change increases in popularity as we continue to see Washington destroy our country.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 01:18 pm
I'm psychic.

From the AP:

Quote:
Fla. presidential primary re-do unlikely

Fla. Vote-By Mail Primary Re-Do Unlikely Because of Concerns


BRENDAN FARRINGTON
AP News

Mar 13, 2008 12:49 EST

The chairwoman of Florida's Democratic Party has said the proposed presidential primary do-over is unlikely to go forward because of concerns about the combined mail-in/in-person election.

Still, Karen Thurman said Thursday she is asking Democratic leaders, the national party and Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton to consider the option as the best way to resolve a delegate dispute. The disagreement was created when the state violated party rules by holding an early primary.

Thurman will review comments from Democratic leaders and make a decision by Monday on whether to proceed with the do-over. But she said based on what she's already heard, it's unlikely to happen.


Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
blueflame1
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 01:30 pm
I lost my vote in Florida but the loss could be even greater with a mail in revote. There's nothing in place in Florida to verify voters. A revote using the same machines as the original vote is out of the question because many machines are being replaced and wont be in operation before July. A revote would be great if there was campaigning time. I doubt Hillary will accept a caucus. At this point it may be best to stick with the rules as laid out at the time of the original primary.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 02:26 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Quote:

This race is not going to be decided, at least, until the FL and MI delegates are resolved (Remember our bet Cyclo), and probably not until the convention.


Hmm, was our bet that they would not matter, or that they would not matter as currently voted?

Doesn't matter either way; a re-vote isn't as likely to happen as you think. It would have to be approved by the DOJ before going forward, and there are a lot of legal issues to take into account. I wouldn't bet on a revote happening just yet.

Cycloptichorn


Our bet was whether or not the matter would be decided before the issue was resolved. You advanced the notion that the issue was moot because the nomination would be decided without any need to address it.

I hope you're not trying to wriggle free of the wager.
0 Replies
 
Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Thu 13 Mar, 2008 02:28 pm
Certainly someone who believes so much in the audacity of hope wouldn't welsh...
0 Replies
 
 

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