From another blogger, Josh Marshall,
some thoughts about the path to the nomination.
Basically, he has advice for both sides here.
For those crowing about a Hillary "comeback," there's the all-important reality check that's been posted here in various ways already: the overriding role of the math. Hillary's wins now are just too little, too late:
Quote:Hillary takes three of four primaries, and the two big states. Yet the delegate spread didn't budge. The possibilities seem to range from a high-single digit pick up for Hillary to the possibility of a net pick up for Obama. So, big headlines and buzz for Hillary, but the same stubborn picture on the pledged delegate front.
Both sides are spinning like wild about what the different numbers mean. [..] But it's not going to be up to them. The super delegates are going to break for the winner of the primary/caucus process, as long as it's relatively clear. [..] And Obama's people are dead right when they say, he doesn't even have to do that well from here on out to end this with a substantial pledged delegate margin.
At the end of the day, the winner of the pledged delegate race has the strongest claim to the nomination.
But there's also a warning to
Obama supporters who rely too strictly on the math. Yes, in the end the only thing that decides is how many delegates each candidate gets. Momentum doesnt put bread on the table, and doesnt get you a nomination. Having the numbers does, and Obama has a big lead.
But in the end it does come down to the superdelegates: Obama's lead is not big enough to avoid that. And very likely, those superdelegates will go for whoever has the lead in pledged delegates - and unless lightning strikes and the earth moves, that will be Obama. The superdelegates would need to break something like 3:1 to Hillary for her to win, someone posted here, and that's very unlikely. But not entirely impossible: consider the hypothetical scenario that Hillary goes on to win victory after victory from here on onward for a winning streak over months:
Quote:But it's a strong claim, not incontestable.
Let's hypothesize for a moment a scenario in which March 4th broke the back of Obama's campaign. He emerges bloodied and doesn't seem to be able to stand up to Hillary's assault. His delegate margin is big enough that she can't catch up. But she runs through the next dozen or however many remaining contests there are making up steady ground on the pledged delegate front. I don't think a small margin of pledged delegates will be enough if Obama looks like a damaged candidate who seems unable to fight off a determined and ruthless opponent.
Just hanging on to the margin he banked in February won't be enough because fundamentally, if neither candidate has it locked by the convention, the super delegates will want to pick the candidate who looks like the general election winner and is the favorite of Democrats at the time of the convention, two qualifiers which are in practice two sides of the same coin.
I don't think the above is a likely scenario. In fact, I think it's quite unlikely. Almost everything remains stacked against Hillary. There's no denying that. But I think this does point to what this debate -- literal and meta -- will turn on over the next couple weeks.
