Obama '08?

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I think it's real enough; just not what I would normally call a 'democrat.'

Since he's already made clear he's an independent voter who's ideologically somewhere halfway between Hillary and McCain, I don't see how that's an issue.

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I think it's real enough; just not what I would normally call a 'democrat.'

Since he's already made clear he's an independent voter who's ideologically somewhere halfway between Hillary and McCain, I don't see how that's an issue.

maporsche wrote:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

maporsche wrote:

sozobe wrote:

She's not mathematically out of it.

It seems extremely unlikely, and we've been pointing to some of the reasons why. But if everything aligns perfectly, she could still get the nomination, yes.

Sure it's unlikely. I've already resigned myself to as much.

That does not mean that she should drop out of the race.

Before this creation gets any more straw stuffed up it's a$$; I believe the original contested point was whether she should quit if she takes a beating tomorrow... and even then it was with an assumption/understanding that her chances would likely be dismal thereafter.

And I believe I am speaking as though she get's an ass beating tomorrow.

In until the convention, regardless of what else happens.

Finn? ... George?... Tico? Who's behind this silly avatar with the crappy football team?

The Number To Watch On Tuesday Night



With the Clinton campaign now saying they will stay in the race even if they lose delegates in Texas, it's worth putting into perspective just how difficult it would be for them to close Barack Obama's lead in pledged delegates. For Clinton to pull ahead, she will need to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates. To keep that number from rising even higher, they of course need to win 57% of the delegates on Tuesday, which would mean getting at least 213 delegates to Obama's 161 -- a 52 delegate advantage. If they net anything below 52 delegates, they fall even further behind. This is the key number to keep in mind when watching the election returns.

And, of course, even netting 52 delegates is hardly a big win. The Clinton campaign picked Texas and Ohio as its battleground because those states are particularly Clinton-friendly. The remaining primary states include several -- like Mississippi, Oregon, and North Carolina -- where Obama is likely to rack up major wins. That means that Clinton needs to gain well over 57% of the delegates in the states that are better for her. The only way she could possibly do this would be to utterly destroy Obama's reputation, make him a radioactive figure, like Al Sharpton. This also seems like an extreme longshot, though the Clinton campaign appears to be attempting to pull it off with its flurry of attacks.

Now, in Clinton's favor, she doesn't necessarily need to win pledged delegates. I think if she comes close, and has the momentum, she could possibly win it with superdelegates without too much blood on the convention floor. But Clinton needs to dramatically reduce Obama's lead in pledged delegates. If she only wins narrowly Tuesday, even the goal of getting close in pledged delegates will become more remote, and her continuing candidacy will be impossibe to justify for anybody who has the Democratic Party's interests at heart.

--Jonathan Chait

It is pretty obvious this persona is not real.

her campaign can't keep taking money and trucking along, in good faith.......

OCCOM BILL wrote:

maporsche wrote:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

maporsche wrote:

sozobe wrote:

She's not mathematically out of it.

It seems extremely unlikely, and we've been pointing to some of the reasons why. But if everything aligns perfectly, she could still get the nomination, yes.

Sure it's unlikely. I've already resigned myself to as much.

That does not mean that she should drop out of the race.

Before this creation gets any more straw stuffed up it's a$$; I believe the original contested point was whether she should quit if she takes a beating tomorrow... and even then it was with an assumption/understanding that her chances would likely be dismal thereafter.

And I believe I am speaking as though she get's an ass beating tomorrow.

In until the convention, regardless of what else happens.

Finn? ... George?... Tico? Who's behind this silly avatar with the crappy football team?

Not me, O'Bill ... although I agree with the sentiment.

If I were to chose a silly avatar with a crappy football team, it would look more like this:

+ smokin' a ceegar.

A Phone Will Ring at 3 am: +27 Texas Delegates for Obama

nimh wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I think it's real enough; just not what I would normally call a 'democrat.'

Since he's already made clear he's an independent voter who's ideologically somewhere halfway between Hillary and McCain, I don't see how that's an issue.

I don't know that he has made anything clear. I don't think he knows. Either that, or if my intuition is correct, he is a faker.

I just put people who aren't Dems in the same group as Republicans - outside parties who are interested in the race, but don't represent mainstream Dem thought.

It is pretty obvious this persona is not real.

The only way his sentiment makes any sense is if he's really on your team (whether he knows it or not). .

Yeah, that's one way of dismissing 'em.

Play that card snood.....you know which one.