Obama '08?

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I think it's real enough; just not what I would normally call a 'democrat.'

Since he's already made clear he's an independent voter who's ideologically somewhere halfway between Hillary and McCain, I don't see how that's an issue.

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I think it's real enough; just not what I would normally call a 'democrat.'

Since he's already made clear he's an independent voter who's ideologically somewhere halfway between Hillary and McCain, I don't see how that's an issue.

maporsche wrote:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

maporsche wrote:

sozobe wrote:

She's not mathematically out of it.

It seems extremely unlikely, and we've been pointing to some of the reasons why. But if everything aligns perfectly, she could still get the nomination, yes.

Sure it's unlikely. I've already resigned myself to as much.

That does not mean that she should drop out of the race.

Before this creation gets any more straw stuffed up it's a$$; I believe the original contested point was whether she should quit if she takes a beating tomorrow... and even then it was with an assumption/understanding that her chances would likely be dismal thereafter.

And I believe I am speaking as though she get's an ass beating tomorrow.

In until the convention, regardless of what else happens.

Finn? ... George?... Tico? Who's behind this silly avatar with the crappy football team?

The Number To Watch On Tuesday Night



With the Clinton campaign now saying they will stay in the race even if they lose delegates in Texas, it's worth putting into perspective just how difficult it would be for them to close Barack Obama's lead in pledged delegates. For Clinton to pull ahead, she will need to win 57% of the remaining pledged delegates. To keep that number from rising even higher, they of course need to win 57% of the delegates on Tuesday, which would mean getting at least 213 delegates to Obama's 161 -- a 52 delegate advantage. If they net anything below 52 delegates, they fall even further behind. This is the key number to keep in mind when watching the election returns.

And, of course, even netting 52 delegates is hardly a big win. The Clinton campaign picked Texas and Ohio as its battleground because those states are particularly Clinton-friendly. The remaining primary states include several -- like Mississippi, Oregon, and North Carolina -- where Obama is likely to rack up major wins. That means that Clinton needs to gain well over 57% of the delegates in the states that are better for her. The only way she could possibly do this would be to utterly destroy Obama's reputation, make him a radioactive figure, like Al Sharpton. This also seems like an extreme longshot, though the Clinton campaign appears to be attempting to pull it off with its flurry of attacks.

Now, in Clinton's favor, she doesn't necessarily need to win pledged delegates. I think if she comes close, and has the momentum, she could possibly win it with superdelegates without too much blood on the convention floor. But Clinton needs to dramatically reduce Obama's lead in pledged delegates. If she only wins narrowly Tuesday, even the goal of getting close in pledged delegates will become more remote, and her continuing candidacy will be impossibe to justify for anybody who has the Democratic Party's interests at heart.

--Jonathan Chait

It is pretty obvious this persona is not real.

her campaign can't keep taking money and trucking along, in good faith.......

OCCOM BILL wrote:

maporsche wrote:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

maporsche wrote:

sozobe wrote:

She's not mathematically out of it.

It seems extremely unlikely, and we've been pointing to some of the reasons why. But if everything aligns perfectly, she could still get the nomination, yes.

Sure it's unlikely. I've already resigned myself to as much.

That does not mean that she should drop out of the race.

Before this creation gets any more straw stuffed up it's a$$; I believe the original contested point was whether she should quit if she takes a beating tomorrow... and even then it was with an assumption/understanding that her chances would likely be dismal thereafter.

And I believe I am speaking as though she get's an ass beating tomorrow.

In until the convention, regardless of what else happens.

Finn? ... George?... Tico? Who's behind this silly avatar with the crappy football team?

Not me, O'Bill ... although I agree with the sentiment.

If I were to chose a silly avatar with a crappy football team, it would look more like this:

+ smokin' a ceegar.

A Phone Will Ring at 3 am: +27 Texas Delegates for Obama



At 3 a.m., while your children sleep, a phone will ring in… Ohio…

You heard it here, first: Clinton's "3 a.m. ad" has backfired in the Lone Star state.

On power-rotation on Texas TV, Mark Penn's wet dream of finally getting to go full-powered nasty against Obama is not only the laughing stock of YouTube but also among most young Texans, including young Hispanic Texan voters, and no small number of elder ones, too.

The opposite of what Penn intended has happened: the ad has pushed white male voters toward Obama, and will cause a higher-than expected Independent and Republican cross-over to vote against Clinton in the Democratic primary, tossing various delegates from rural, white, Republican districts into the Obama column.

Ironically, Rush Limbaugh's call for Republicans to cross-over and vote for Clinton to "bloody up Obama" will likewise have unintended consequences: planting the idea - in a sense, "giving permission" to Republicans to cross party lines - but to people who never in a million years would vote for a Clinton, and who generally like Obama as a person, if not for the tone of his politics.

If you think that Clinton's "3 a.m." ad has worked for her, consult today's SurveyUSA poll, taken after the ?'3 a.m.' ad hit the airwaves: Among Texan voters that consider the Iraq war the most important issue, 57 percent favor Obama to 42 for Clinton. Among those that see "terrorism" as the most important issue, 62 percent back Obama to just 30 for Clinton. The survey samples are small on that - caveat emptor - but they also reflect the word on the street.

Or if you missed it earlier, check out this video of real-time focus group results of three kinds of people - Clinton supporters, Obama supporters, and undecided voters - watching that ad.

Remember that the "3 a.m." ad never ran in Ohio. Too bad for Obama. Because what it has wrought in Texas is a likely delegate blowout tomorrow on his behalf.

With just 53 percent of the vote - my conservative estimate - Obama will pick up a net gain of 16 delegates from the daytime primary vote, and, at minimum, a net plus of 11 delegates in the evening caucuses (although that is a conservative estimate), for a total advance of 27 delegates in Texas on March 4.

Combined with The Field estimates for Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont, that will give Obama a net gain of 20 pledged delegates nationwide, bringing his grand total to 182 and then watch the superdelegate floodgates open.

Unlike in any other state, Texas offers no delegates based on the statewide percentage of votes. All 193 pledged delegates at stake will be chosen based on the results within State Senate districts. About two-thirds of them in the primary, and the rest to be chosen based on the 7:15 p.m. caucuses, where Obama's field organization muscle will shine just as it has in previous caucus states.

District delegate count:

The Field estimates that a delegate tie is likely in 15 of 31 State Senate districts in Texas: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11, 12, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21, 26 and 31.

Clinton will likely pick up +1 delegate apiece in two overwhelmingly Hispanic districts (27 and 29), and another in Northwest Texas (28) where enough Hispanics will put her over the top in a district with just three (an odd-number of) delegates. But younger Hispanic voters are visibly breaking for Obama in significant enough numbers to keep Clinton from hitting extra delegate thresholds in districts 19, 20 and 21 in South Texas.

Obama will pick up one extra delegate apiece in the following senate districts: 6, 7, 9, 10, 17, 22, 24 and 30.

Obama will pick up +2 delegates each in four districts: 14, 15, 23 and 25.

And Obama will net +3 delegates in Houston's senate district 13.

That's a total of 71 delegates for Obama to just 55 for Clinton.

Then come the caucuses, and watch out. All the dirty tricks the Clinton team has planned will come to naught except in some precincts in South Texas, but in the rest of the state the Obama wave will overwhelm them in sheer numbers. I repeat, my estimate of an 11 delegate pick-up by Obama in the caucuses is the most conservative estimate I can give. It may well be greater than that. But the total will be at least 39 national delegates for Obama to 28 for Clinton.

Subtotals:

Primary Delegates: Obama 71, Clinton 55
Caucus Delegates: Obama 39, Clinton 28

Grand Texas Sized Total: Obama 110, Clinton 83

Mark Penn's grand gambit - changing the issue playing field from the economy to that of national security - will likely go down in political consulting history as one of the most boneheaded maneuvers of this early century, and maybe the last one as well.

Now, these results won't be fully known until, say, 3 a.m. or so… Who, among the Clinton staff, is going to dare place that call to the boss?

Ringgggg….Rrrrringggggg…..Rrrrrrriiiinnnnggggggggg….

nimh wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

I think it's real enough; just not what I would normally call a 'democrat.'

Since he's already made clear he's an independent voter who's ideologically somewhere halfway between Hillary and McCain, I don't see how that's an issue.

I don't know that he has made anything clear. I don't think he knows. Either that, or if my intuition is correct, he is a faker.

I just put people who aren't Dems in the same group as Republicans - outside parties who are interested in the race, but don't represent mainstream Dem thought.

It is pretty obvious this persona is not real.

The only way his sentiment makes any sense is if he's really on your team (whether he knows it or not). .

Yeah, that's one way of dismissing 'em.

Play that card snood.....you know which one.