Quote:
The idea that Hillary has to win both states to remain viable has been hyped, repeated so many times we all have begun to think of it as truth. Hillary is only behind by 100 delegates and she'll win a good number of delegates on Tuesday. She's not going to drop out until she is actually losing. Why should she? She knows her supporters are depending on her. In large numbers, we're all still giving money. The importance of Obama's momentum has been largely over played.
This is hogwash.
First... Hillary has run a simply horrendous campaign... and all of the complaining (oops I don't want to use the word "whining") of Hillary supporters about the fact she isn't doing very well is ridiculous. Hillary came into the race with as much advantage as one could hope for. She and her campaign staff have made some really dumb strategic blunders.
Second. Obama has run a very brilliant campaign. He runs on his strengths (hope and change) and he has answered his weaknesses (he counters experience with judgement). He has inspired his supporters and spoken to people.
Whatever side you are on... it is clear that Obama is attracting the support of many more voters than Clinton. All this complaining about the fact that Obama is generating good press and getting strong grass roots support is silly. That's what you are supposed to do to win a political campaign.
Now lets talk about delegates.
1. The Democratic Party awards delegates proportionally. This mean even if you lose a state you still get delegates. This means that an 100 or 150 delegate lead is very hard to overcome.
In short, the fact that Obama is up this much is a big deal.
2. The media story is part of the campaign. Each candidate has a chance to spin the media story. The media was fully behind Clinton as the inevitable choice for a long time. Complaining about the fact the media thinks that winning 11 states in a row is a big deal is silly.
3. Winning 11 states in a row is a big deal.
Obama has won Northern States. Obama has won Southern States. Obama has done very well with White voters. Obama has done very well with Black voters. Obama has even done very well with white women voters... and Obama has won 11 states in a row.
Now let's talk about Texas and Ohio.
Clinton (as part of the horrible campaign strategy I mentioned above) set herself up to have Texas and Ohio as must win states. She had very little ground operations in many of the "minor" states... and has done very poorly in most of these said states (Obama has received more than 60% of the vote in several).
This is my prediction.
Clinton will lose Texas... at this point she will have lost the media narrative (and this is her own fault), she will also start losing super delegates (again her own fault) and support.
I bet that one week from today... under a great deal of pressure from the party and motivated by the understanding that going forward will hurt her future political endeavors... she will withdraw from the race (or "suspend" the campaign).
I hope that she and her supporters are adult enough to accept the fact that
they lost a hard fought race... partially because they didn't run the best campaign, and partially because many many Americans prefer Obama (both because of his promise and because of political skills and a great campaign.
