Obama '08?

I think the use of the term "gender" is misplaced. It's about Hillary that is the issue.

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BBB, come on. After the part that you bolded and underlined:

Quote:

Over 11 percent of those who voted against Obama (a group that might also include some Latinos) said that race was an important factor in their vote.

So we have Hillary losing 6.5 % of the vote because of her gender and Obama losing 11% of the vote because of his race.

The article's conclusion:

Quote:

Hillary has less of a handicap than Obama, but she is not his equal as a politician.

LESS of a handicap.

Again: there is still sexism in America, sure. There is still racism, too. I just don't think that Obama's current success can be laid at the feet of sexism, and that it insults him (and his supporters) to make it about that.

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Re: BBB

Cycloptichorn wrote:

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:
Sadly, there are a lot of women who would never vote for a woman on a strictly gender basis.
BBB

Are you serious?
You aren't even attempting to be even-handed on this issue unless you admit that there are a lot of men who would be the exact same.
I don't know what's up with ya today BBB, out of character for ya
Cycloptichorn

You know almost nothing about my life history and the causes I was involved in.

If you had walked in my life long shoes and those of thousands of women like me, you would understand why my button was pushed.

BBB

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Perhaps they know too much. Perhaps these women understand the female psyche and realise how unsuited they, and by extension a female candidate, would be for high office.

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steve4100

Steve 41oo wrote:

Perhaps they know too much. Perhaps these women understand the female psyche and realise how unsuited they, and by extension a female candidate, would be for high office.

Are you just trying to be a smart ass by throwing gasoline on burning embers---just for the fun of it?

BBB

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Re: Who Won Super Tuesday?

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:

Clinton got pasted among blacks, but she should be able to win back those voters in November. What's more troubling is her vote among white males and among independents. In California, Clinton lost white men by a whopping 52 to 34 percent. She lost white independents by 58 to 30 percent. In California, 6.5 percent of those voters who didn't vote for Clinton said that gender of the candidate was "an important factor." One must assume that the actual percentage is higher (voters don't like to admit to prejudice) and that many of those voters who would not want to vote for a woman, but who potentially could vote for a Democrat, did not vote at all in the primaries, but will be around in the general election. [/u]

Are you ever going to address the list of the white male vote for ALL states, not for one or the other cherry-picked state that lines up for your point?

For every California in which Clinton lost the white men, there was another state in which she won them. Thats based on the same exit poll data that you quote here now for California.

So what does that mean for your point?

And on a second note, how does a data point showing that gender was an important consideration for 6.5% of those who didnt vote for Clinton prove that, you know, Obama is only winning the votes of (white) guys because of how they're sexist?

I mean, even if it's understated - and I agree with you (or rather, Franklin Foer) that it probably is - this cant ever be the explanation for most male voters - I mean, it's 6.5%. Even if its understated by half, you still get just 13%.

Turn it around, BBB. The same exit polls have repeatedly shown that a similar share of those who didnt vote Obama said that race was an important consideration in their vote. So what, does that justify saying that the reason Hillary is getting white votes is that they're racists who wont vote a black guy? How would you respond to that argument?

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Re: steve4100

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:

Steve 41oo wrote:
Perhaps they know too much. Perhaps these women understand the female psyche and realise how unsuited they, and by extension a female candidate, would be for high office.

Are you just trying to be a smart ass by throwing gasoline on burning embers---just for the fun of it?

BBB

yes. What are you doing?

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Re: BBB

BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:
BumbleBeeBoogie wrote:
Sadly, there are a lot of women who would never vote for a woman on a strictly gender basis.
BBB

Are you serious?
You aren't even attempting to be even-handed on this issue unless you admit that there are a lot of men who would be the exact same.
I don't know what's up with ya today BBB, out of character for ya
Cycloptichorn

You know almost nothing about my life history and the causes I was involved in.

If you had walked in my life long shoes and those of thousands of women like me, you would understand why my button was pushed.

BBB

Sorry to say it but your life experiences don't mean anything in this conversation. It is immaterial to the charges you have made and the fact you won't admit that isn't making things any better for you.

Cycloptichorn

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Nimh
Nimh wrote: "Turn it around, BBB. The same exit polls have repeatedly shown that a similar share of those who didnt vote Obama said that race was an important consideration in their vote. So what, does that justify saying that the reason Hillary is getting white votes is that they're racists who wont vote a black guy? How would you respond to that argument?"

In some states and in some cultures, that would be true. There are racist and sexist people to be found everywhere. The only reason we are seeing it happen is because we have an African American and a white woman running for presidential nominee of the Democratic party.

I wonder what would have happened if the candidates had been an African American Male and an African American Female in the Democratic contest? The Republican contest? Interesting, wouldn't it be?

By the way, many people don't realize that the South was not the only racist area in the country in the past decades. Except for Southern Jim Crow being more prevelant in the South, Chicago was one of the most racist cities in the U.S. Barack Obama had a lot of history to overcome and I admire his success.

BBB

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BBB
I have to leave for a while. Maybe I will have mellowed a bit by the time I get back.

BBB

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Why are you people so excited about this? The next president of the united States of America will be either a woman a sort of black person or an old war hero. Really it doesnt matter. The important thing is that it wont be gw bush.

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Steve wrote-

Quote:

Perhaps they know too much. Perhaps these women understand the female psyche and realise how unsuited they, and by extension a female candidate, would be for high office.

I made that point earlier but nobody took me up on it.

If Mrs Clinton dropped out what happens to her votes at the convention?

Is there a possibility of another candidate coming in with her endorsement (VEEP offers) and with the superdelegates added on the woman and the black man are out and normal service is resumed.

I would think Mr Gore could blow Mr McCain away under such circumstances.

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The super delegates only have a say in who their party's nominee will be. They won't have any say in which of the two party's nominees will be the next president. That's all up to the vote in the general election.

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Meanwhile, I just saw the end of the debate... interesting! What were people clapping for, really? That she acknowledged that Obama is a good candidate? It had a certain feel of "good show Hillary, you ran a good campaign, goodbye."

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

You could just link to The Corner instead of reposting everything from there, without links, Finn.

Cycloptichorn

Yes, I suppose I could have.

I seem to recall though that the last time I posted a link you took it upon yourself to save people the trouble of using it and cut and paste, for their convenience of course, the section you felt was most pertinent.

So I thought this time I would save you the trouble.

Thanks though for volunteering for custodial duties on this thread

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Going to the transcript:

Quote:

And, you know, no matter what happens in this contest -- and I am honored, I am honored to be here with Barack Obama. I am absolutely honored.

At this point, she was placing her hand palm-down on the table near him and looking at him earnestly -- he's the one who then stuck out his hand and shook hers, then patted her on the shoulder. I'd seen it reported as her taking his hand.

Quote:

CLINTON: Whatever happens, we're going to be fine. You know, we have strong support from our families and our friends. I just hope that we'll be able to say the same thing about the American people, and that's what this election should be about.

Isn't that what she said during the tears episode in NH? She's just so worried about the American people... if Obama becomes president, instead of her?

A close reading certainly seems to be indicating something along the lines of "I know I might lose to this guy, and I think he's a good guy, and I sure hope he knows what he's doing. Don't worry about me if I lose."

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My husband saw it the same way.

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As I've been saying all along, it's about Hillary, and not about the American People.

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Foxy wrote-

Quote:

The super delegates only have a say in who their party's nominee will be. They won't have any say in which of the two party's nominees will be the next president. That's all up to the vote in the general election.

Well--I know that. Everybody knows that.

I don't think you understood my post Foxy.

If Mrs Clinton loses Ohio and Texas and bows out that will leave Mr Obama standing alone but with nowhere near enough delegates to win the nomination. The powder is still dry.

Or have I misunderstood?

Why would I have said that about Mr Gore blowing Mr McCain away if I thought the delegates chose the president?

That scenario gets rid of the woman, the black man and the old age pensioner and places a well funded Nobel prize winner with a noble cause in his sails in the WH. And with great experience and charm.

A safe pair of hands. No cupboard skeletons.

And you owe him one as well.

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spendius wrote:

Foxy wrote-

Quote:
The super delegates only have a say in who their party's nominee will be. They won't have any say in which of the two party's nominees will be the next president. That's all up to the vote in the general election.

Well--I know that. Everybody knows that.

I don't think you understood my post Foxy.

If Mrs Clinton loses Ohio and Texas and bows out that will leave Mr Obama standing alone but with nowhere near enough delegates to win the nomination. The powder is still dry.

Or have I misunderstood?

I think you've misunderstood... but then I'm not totally sure what you're saying either so I might be wrong.

2025 is the magic number of delegates to be reached. That includes super delegates.

Obama currently has (according to CNN) a total of 1,319 delegates -- pledged and unpledged. That means he needs to get 706 more.

Clinton has 234 superdelegates -- all of whom could switch to Obama if they want to.

There are 444 delegates at stake March 4th; 18 March 8th; 40 March 11th; 188 April 22nd; 9 May 3rd; 218 May 6th; 39 May 13th; 125 May 20th; 47 June 3rd; and 63 June 7th. That's a total of 1191 left (pledged, I think).

That means there are a lot of ways for Obama to take the nomination outright before the convention, no meddling necessary. As one example, getting 60 % of the remaining delegates -- which seems very possible for him. (714.6 more delegates.)

I'm not totally sure of the math there, it's original (as in I got raw numbers and figured it out, it's not a cut-and-paste from somewhere). Especially, I'm not sure about whether the 1191 delegates left are all actually up for grabs -- may be some superdelegates in the mix who have already made their preference known.

But the overriding point is that Obama may well just plain get enough delegates, end of story.

If the primaries end without Obama or Clinton reaching the 2025 number, then the negotiations start. Nobody really wants a brokered convention.

It's really unlikely that anyone but Obama or Clinton will end up as the Democratic nominee.

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