Lola wrote:
But my point about the age thing is only part of why I don't support Obama now. I am a person who is highly suspicious of charismatic speakers who energize a crowd in the way Obama can. It's fine, it I know I can trust the person, but I don't know enough about him to know that now. I've sat through many a revival meeting with that type of oratory and crowds who seem mesmerized.
The fact that is so often being repeated over and over the last few ways that if Obama can get in front of a crowd, he wins supporters. That is, a crowd of people who contain many people who otherwise had some reason to not be for him and be won over by his oratorical style alone. It strikes an alarm for me because I've seen it abused too many times. I don't suspect Obama of potential evil, I haven't had a chance to evaluate whether or not he can handle the job.
I also think his claim that he will "change politics as usual" is likely either naive or a misrepresentation. Because he has so far been using the same "politics as usual" as Hillary has. I don't' think he's done it any more or less that Hillary. It seems a warp in perception that Hillary's camp can see Obama do it and Obama supporters can see Hillary do it. But very few seem to be able to see that it's true of both. It's my opinion that there is some of politics as usual that is both inevitable and necessary when running for office. If he really tried to run without it, he'd lose. I'm not sure if I'm observing a double standard on his part, if he's naive or if he's simply failed to tell us and to demonstrate exactly what it is he wants to change and how he will go about doing it. I think he should tell us something more specific. Unless he does that, I can't feel confident to vote for him.
Hillary's not a perfect candidate. But she is excellent at what she does. She does know how to get things done, or at least she's proved that to me over a long period of time. I feel confident in Hillary's democratic values. I've seen her fight for those values with consistency. I don't doubt Obama's values either. He seems committed to the values most Democrats hold dear. But he hasn't proven to me that he can do what needs to be done. And what I consider to be his poor judgement about entering the race at a time when he couldn't avoid causing a major rift in the party is one very large reason I want to see more before I vote for him.
As it is now, as for me, if he is nominated, I'll vote for him. But I will not work for his campaign nor will I donate money. I think those who voted for him can take that responsibility. I've had to spend all I am willing to spend on the nominating process. It's been way too expensive. I think there are lots of people who will do the same.
Let me just comment on this portion of your pervious post for a second here - I am equeally concerned about Obama's charasmatic nature and that being a large portion of his appeal to many voters.
I live in MA and Deval Partrick, who also happens to be a middle-aged black male, won the Govonorship here last year on a campaign that was almost identical to the campaign Obama is running.
Patrick used his "Keep Hope Alive" message without much content behind it to win in much the same way Obama is using his Hope/Change mantra (although Obama has been more forthcoming with details than Patrick was...) and he won and although he's only been in office for a year, he immediatly ran into roadblocks.
The state senate/house are 90% Democrats (as Patrick is) but he hasn't been able to push through any of his major agenda items thusfar because the entrenched politicians across the state have fought him tooth and nail to maintain their own power. I have little doubt that Obama will run into much of the same and I fully expect it.
The difference in our views here isn't the concern about how Obama is campaigning. Our difference is that you think Hillary can win the general election and I don't.
Like it or not, Hillary goes into any general election with a close to 50% unfavorable rating and ~30% that being strongly unfavorable. That's 30% of the voting population that isn't going to vote for her come hell or high water. Obama, on the other hand runs in the range of 20% unfavorable with 10-12% of the total being very unfavorable. These numbers aren't just the current numbers either. They represent a trend that has been in place for several years and isn't going to go away.
Of the 11 major polls pitting McCain (McCain runs in the 30% "Unfavorable", < 10% "Very Unfavorable" range) against Clinton, Clinton only wins in one of them and ties in 2. Obama wins in 6 and ties in 3. (and again, these are trends, not just the latest results)
I think every analyst out there expects the 2008 general election to be close. IMO, that means the race will break to whomever the Independents vote for and the Independents are clearly breaking in favor (by a significant amount) for Obama in both the primaries and the polls.
So to me the choice is fairly clear - I can have a charasmatic Obama in the Whitehouse who might get stonewalled by the Congress or I can have McCain in the Whitehouse. Either way, I see Hillary sitting back in her seat in the Senate.