maporsche
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 08:50 am
sozobe wrote:
WHOA!

That's a surprise, I have to say.

Not an entirely happy one, for more than one reason. (A) I like him, B) I think he was helping Obama.)

WOW!

Thanks for breaking the news, Thomas, first I've heard of it.



I asked this question a while back about who Edwards was helping....I'm inclined to believe that he was taking votes from Obama, thereby helping Clinton. This throws Super Tuesday into a flux.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 08:51 am
sozobe wrote:
Thanks for breaking the news, Thomas, first I've heard of it.

You're welcome, but actually mysteryman beat me. Credit were credit is due! Smile
0 Replies
 
blueflame1
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 08:52 am
bomb, bomb, bomb Iran. McCain.
0 Replies
 
Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 08:55 am
Edwards has obviously already secured whatever position he will have in the new administration should the cadidate he backs win. Business as usual. I believe he'll throw his support to Obama if for no other reason than snubbing the Clintons but I could be wrong. It will depend on who offers him the sweetest deal.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 08:55 am
maporsche wrote:
I asked this question a while back about who Edwards was helping....I'm inclined to believe that he was taking votes from Obama, thereby helping Clinton. This throws Super Tuesday into a flux.


Yeah, I asked it a while ago too. I've seen arguments for both -- the "helping Obama" argument is a little more compelling, numbers-wise. Polls and stuff, who Edwards people say they'd vote for if Edwards dropped out.

I think it depends on the state and the demographic though. Edwards seemed to split the "not Hillary" vote with Obama, and split the "not black" vote with Hillary. (Simplistic version, of course.)
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:01 am
maporsche wrote:
I asked this question a while back about who Edwards was helping....I'm inclined to believe that he was taking votes from Obama, thereby helping Clinton. This throws Super Tuesday into a flux.

If the median Edwards supporter is mostly motivated by his program, most of his supporters should turn into Clinton supporters, because her program is more similar to his than Obama's. If, on the other hand, the median Edwards supporter is mostly motivated by Edwards's charisma, I would expect most Edwards supporters to switch to Obama.

Judging by my correspondents' zeal to read programs, and considering that my correspondents are probably more fact-driven and charisma-resistant than average overall, My guess that Edwards's dropping out will help Obama more than Clinton
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:07 am
FWIW,
I'm not a dem, nor have I been paying real close attention to the race yet (I was waiting for the herd to thin out first), I cant help but think Edwards dropping out will only help Obama.

Edwards didnt seem to be all to cozy with Hillary, at least not in my view.
Many of his views seemed to be more in line with what Obama is saying, and I cant see Edwards supporting Hillary.

I have a feeling that most of the Edwards supporters will end up voting for Obama, much to Hillary's chagrin.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:11 am
I was just talking to someone else (another site) about this, about whether Edwards will endorse someone else and if so when, and realized that it probably makes the most sense that he dropped out now in order to endorse an opponent (Obama or Hillary) before Super Tuesday and have a big impact.

I'm not at all taking it for granted that he'd endorse Obama, though, and I also wouldn't take it for granted that whomever he endorses, his supporters would then vote for.

Wow, still can't quite get over this. I believed his protests that he was staying in it for the long haul and was imagining him as king/queenmaker at the convention.
0 Replies
 
eoe
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:17 am
I can't believe that you really thought he'd stay in it. Why? Just imagine being in his shoes and making such a poor showing at every single primary? Imagine sitting on a stage and being literally ignored while the other two candidates get all of the questions and eat up all of the time with their responses. Imagine having to remind commentators that you're even there.

He's only human, after all. I'm sure his feelings have been terribly hurt and his ego has taken quite the beating. Personally, I think it's high time for him to go home and be with his ailing wife.
0 Replies
 
Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:20 am
I like john edwards. no doubt he never had a chance, and I don't think he's the man for the job. I do like him though.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:20 am
Well, with such a close election, the kingmaker role is a powerful one. If Hillary was way out in front and Edwards was getting the numbers he's been getting, sure, there's no point. But with Hillary and Obama so close, he could wield a whole lot of power at the convention.

Plus, he kept saying he'd stay in even though his chances looked dismal pretty much as soon as he came in a distant second in Iowa. As in, it's not that his chances suddenly look so much worse than they have all along -- if he hadn't dropped out already, why now?

The Super Tuesday endorsement makes some sense as to why now.

Could be something about Elizabeth too, though -- I hadn't noticed but just read something about how she's been off the campaign trail since NH. Hope she's OK, or at least as OK as the cancer allows her to be.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:21 am
(That's in response to eoe, not BPB. I like him too.)
0 Replies
 
cjhsa
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:22 am
eoe wrote:
I can't believe that you really thought he'd stay in it. Why? Just imagine being in his shoes and making such a poor showing at every single primary? Imagine sitting on a stage and being literally ignored while the other two candidates get all of the questions and eat up all of the time with their responses. Imagine having to remind commentators that you're even there.

He's only human, after all. I'm sure his feelings have been terribly hurt and his ego has taken quite the beating. Personally, I think it's high time for him to go home and be with his ailing wife.


I think this says more about media darlings, and really, unprofessional bias on the part of the media. We rely on the media to present to us the alternatives. When they choose not to, it helps no one, not just poor Mr. Edwards.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:56 am
Hesitating to scratch and aging wound, but I think this short comment from Greg Sargent at TPM re Herbert's column is a match to my notions...
Quote:
Bob Kerrey's Tame Response To Bob Herbert
January 29, 2008 -- 4:08 PM EST // link //
The other day this blog took a whack at Bob Herbert's weekend column in The Times, which among other things used a single anonymous racist blog posting about Barack Obama to insinuate that the Clintons are "gleeful" about the rampant racism that's been uncorked by the dust-ups between the two leading Dem candidates.

Herbert's column, which relied on quotes from everyone but the Clintons to make its case, also hit Hillary supporter Bob Kerrey for wrongly saying that Obama attended a "secular madrassa," which Herbert held up as proof that Kerrey was trying to slime the Illinois Senator.


Now Kerrey has responded in a letter to The Times:

Re "Questions for the Clintons," by Bob Herbert (column, Jan. 26): Mr. Herbert took a piece of a complimentary statement I made about Senator Barack Obama's being qualified to be president, imputed that my motive was to "slime" the senator, sandwiched a few of my words between a statement by Andrew Young and a vile anonymous Internet posting, and rested his case.

Though I am generally not surprised by this technique, as a regular reader of Mr. Herbert, I was surprised by his use of the device. I attribute this to the passions this campaign has aroused.

Kerrey is "surprised" by Herbert's tactic and attributes it "to the passions this campaign has aroused"? I'm sorry, but this is pretty weak stuff.

Herbert's use of an anonymous blog posting to score points was straying deep into Michelle Malkin and Little Green Footballs territory; a tactic as rank as this is deeply unbecoming to the paper. And while Herbert did say that Kerrey subsequently apologized, he didn't tell readers that Kerrey also claimed that his reference to the madrassa was unintentional, a key detail given the insinuations, or that the Obama campaign accepted Kerrey's letter of explanation.


In short, the column resorted to some pretty questionable tricks indeed. Whichever candidate you support, such stuff really fouls up our discourse, whoever its target, and we shouldn't be afraid to say so a little more forcefully.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/horsesmouth/
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:58 am
eoe wrote:
Imagine sitting on a stage and being literally ignored while the other two candidates get all of the questions and eat up all of the time with their responses. Imagine having to remind commentators that you're even there.

He could have asked them what Admiral Stockdale said: ""Who am I? Why am I here?"
0 Replies
 
Bi-Polar Bear
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 10:03 am
eoe wrote:
I can't believe that you really thought he'd stay in it. Why? Just imagine being in his shoes and making such a poor showing at every single primary? Imagine sitting on a stage and being literally ignored while the other two candidates get all of the questions and eat up all of the time with their responses. Imagine having to remind commentators that you're even there.

He's only human, after all. I'm sure his feelings have been terribly hurt and his ego has taken quite the beating. Personally, I think it's high time for him to go home and be with his ailing wife.


I agree wholeheartledly..... even though you're not speaking to me. which is too bad because I have extra cookies in my lunchbox this morning..... I was going to see what you had to trade...
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 10:11 am
from Matt Yglesias

Quote:
Obama's Conservofans
30 Jan 2008 08:21 am

Reading what Ross says here, I realize that what I wrote about Barack Obama's admirers among the conservative pundit class is open to misinterpretation. Here's something that people I talk to sometimes say, but that I don't believe:

Conservative pundits like David Brooks like to praise Barack Obama because they think he'll be an easy mark in the general election.
What I do think is that praising Barack Obama appeals to conservative pundits in large part because, right now, praising Obama is a useful means by which to denigrate Hillary Clinton. As such, I think part of the background for things like Brooks' praise of Obama is belief that he's likely to lose the primary. I think there's a desire on the right to make the 2008 election mostly about the Clinton family rather than being about contemporary American conservatism's horrid record in office. Portraying the current Democratic primary as an apocalyptic struggle between the forces of light and the forces of Clintonism nicely sets up the general election as a second round between light and Clinton. Do I see this as a machiavellian scheme hatched out of Karl Rove's front office? No. But that's my diagnosis of the function of Obamafandom. If Obama loses the primary, Obamafandom becomes a reason to vote Republican -- the Democratic Party is so rotten that it rejected the One. If Obama wins the primary, I assume that Obamafandom will rapidly wither away. It will turn out that the Democratic Party is so rotten that it tainted the One. Or something like that.

Meanwhile, what I'm trying to say about the real world is that there's just no justification for viewing the Obama/Clinton choice as some kind of night and day Moment of Decision for America. There are differences between the two of them, but in the scheme of things they're either small differences or fuzzy ones, not the gaping void that many on the right seem to perceive.
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 10:13 am
I think I'm sorry Edwards didn't stay in until Super Tuesday, but I'm not sure. Oy. (I also like him, sometimes more than Obama.)
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 10:14 am
And, his very next post
Quote:
McCain and the Base
30 Jan 2008 08:21 am

Kevin Drum notes that contrary to what you might think, John McCain won in Florida without really solving his base problem at all. He lost self-identified conservatives and he lost self-identified Republicans, too:

http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/Blog_Florida_Republican_Exit_Poll_Party_2008.png

Kevin remarks: "Does anyone seriously think that any Republican candidate can kick such major ass among independents in November that he can afford a conservative base that's not charged up and working feverishly to turn out every last vote? I don't." Well, no, neither do I. But fortunately for the GOP, the Democratic front runner is still Hillary Clinton whose nomination would ensure solid base support for McCain despite the lack of genuine enthusiasm. Does anyone seriously think that any Democratic candidate is more likely than Clinton to ensure a conservative base that's charged up and working feverishly to turn out every last vote? I don't.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Wed 30 Jan, 2008 10:25 am
I just posted a response, then re-read and realized that I agree with the red part! Yes, that's what I've been saying for a while. Hillary would energize the conservative base much more than Obama would.
0 Replies
 
 

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