sozobe wrote:Hi all,
Last night I read a post from nimh re: Hillary's vs. Obama's chances in the general election on the "polls" thread and wanted to respond but didn't have time -- snood followed up on it and nimh asked to not go into it there, so I'm taking it here.
This is off the top of my head and not all original -- some I know is not original, some is probably not original but I don't even know, but I'm not going to try to track everything down. If I can remember where it's from I'll note. Some of it is just me.
OK. So while I am very concerned about whether Obama can beat Hillary in the primaries, I think Obama has a better chance than Hillary in the general election. This is part of why I really want him to win the primaries. Several reasons.
A very reasonable analysis Sozobe
Clinton fatigue.
I'm not convinced the dynasty aspect of this argument is a quite so strong, but I do agree there is "Clinton Fatigue" throughout the country, and that it is exacerbated by Bill Clinton's prominent role in the campaign. It probably will grow during the general election if Hillary wins the nomination. However I think you may be underestimating the nostalgia that exists among many for the Clinton years, and Bill Clinton's popularity among Democrat voters. I'm not sure that forums such as A2K and left-wing blogs provide an accurate picture of Clinton's popularity. Clinton is, in essence, the Democratic Establishment's candidate, and bloggers and participants in cyber-forums tend to be less than orthodox.
If there is more political ammo to use against Clinton than Obama (and there probably is but then he really hasn't gotten the third degree yet) it's, partially because she has more of a record than he does. While this compliments her campaign's contention on relative experience, it is certainly not an argument she will want to make: "I can prove I have more experience in politics! The Republicans will have more mud to sling at me!"
In any case, as much as Democrats would like to blame Republican attacks for Kerry's defeat in 2004, they were only a part of his problems, and they alone will not be able to defeat Clinton or Obama in 2008.
"We're gonna need a bigger boat."
The quote you refer to is from a National Review piece by Byron York, but you've relayed it accurately.
Obama's ability to inspire and excite crowds, manifests itself in a style of rhetoric that he will not have many opportunities to use on TV, and that is the medium through which the candidates in the general election will have to work whatever magic they may have. It is true though that Obama is head and shoulders above the Republican candidates in terms of public speaking, and in that regard he will be a formidable opponent.
I think you're correct that Republicans would prefer to see Clinton the nominee, but that may be, in part, because they have had a strategy to use against her sitting on the shelf for quite some time now. I'm sure someone is right now trying to figure out how best to beat Obama, but he's something new and will require tactics different than those that can work against Clinton.
Bill Kristol regularly remarks on what a powerful candidate Obama is and how well his campaign is run by David Axlerod, but that could be Bre Bill's way of enticing Dems to throw the Repubs into the briar patch. I've heard the same thing from a number of conservative pundits and they just doesn't ring entirely true.
The movement factor.
Well, he hopes to lead a Movement, but that one actually exists is hardly certain. Your point, though, about his actually winning the nomination being able to jump start a movement, is a good one.
Republicans are not looking for a movement right now. They haven't been out in the wilderness as long as the Democrats have been, and there really isn't anything for them to move against. For them it is more a case of shoring up what was already put in place.
The degree to which there is a sense of a Movement in an Obama nomination, it will have power, and could make a difference in voter turnout and in wooing independents. Hillary, running as the first woman cnadidate for the presidency should be be able to establish a sense of movement, but I don't think she can because she will. She's just not inspirational on any front.
Negatives and wiggle room
Very big factor. Obama will not, just by being himself, get out the Republican vote. A Hillary nomination, on the other hand, will galvanize Republican voters. This is another reason the GOP would probably prefer to see her as the nominee.
Independents
Another big factor, but one that isn't going to come into play any longer in the primaries, and so unless and until he ends up in the general election, nothing to rely upon. As long as the Republicans don't run someone who is seen as Mr. Republican (The only one left in the field who might be seen this way is Romeny), they will give Obama a run for his money with independents. When faced with a McCain or a Gulianni versus Obama, there will be a lot of independents who will go with experience over change; feeling as if they can get the former without the "meaness" of a more traditional Republican.
Of course all sort of things can happen between now and November that throw everything into chaos. What the world looks like in August and September will be key.
If Al Qaida really wants a Democratic president then they better lay low and leave us alone until after November.
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Off to read...
