Butrflynet wrote: Cycloptichorn wrote:nimh wrote:Cycloptichorn wrote:Identity politics worry me, in this case. It's plainly obvious that Hillary is winning due to a large turnout by women; are they all won over by her policy positions, or her stance, or her preparedness? Hell no; they are voting for a fellow woman.
Do you worry in the same way about black people voting for Obama, or is it just the women's identity politics that bother you?
Yes, it's the same. Obama won't be affected by coming off as an 'angry black man' to his base of black voters.
Problem is, there are a lot more women voters then there are black voters.. doesn't bode well for him winning the nomination, if identity politics are what it comes down to.
Doesn't make me happy.
Cycloptichorn
So what is the explanation for why all the white men aren't voting for Edwards?
Well, aside from the fact that he's a scumbag, there is nothing unprecedented about voting in another white male. It is silly to think blacks, women, or cheese heads wouldn't be especially open to voting in the first of their own. Hell, since there's no cheese head running; I'm inspired by the prospect of voting in a first... and I'm neither black nor female. It is silly to discount such thoughts completely. If they both suffer other negatives from mudslinging, the numerical advantage enjoyed by Hillary becomes more important. This is demonstrated better by Finn's excellent point.
Butrflynet wrote:And Black women, who are they voting for?
You haven't noticed the Press having Squeezing every drop out of that?
Nimh: Solid reasoning... but I don't believe the tables have completely reversed. The table is reversed in terms of National will, and it is the Republicans now with bigger re-election fears... true, true...but I just can't see it as equal. I can't see the Republican minority caving in to Hillary Clinton's will nearly as easily as I see them becoming ever more willing to cooperate with Obama. Hillary lacks Bush's with me or against me ammo (9-11) and without it she's more blowhard than actual threat to the Republican minority respective to the Democrat minority Bush ran over. Just my opinion. I could be wrong.
Finn: I think you make a very strong case, and I agree with the sentiment
but with less catastrophic consequences
meaning; it could very well happen that way but I consider it less likely
and I don't think Romney can beat her. He'd certainly get the far right, but he can't have the middle. He fails the moderate litmus test.
Tico:
Obama does that, and Obama doing that certainly increases his chances of winning a General.
