Yet what I hear most of the pundits saying these days is that Romney appeals far more to moderates than he does to conservatives, especially the far right. The two candidates with solid conservative credentials--Thompson and Hunter--are both out. Even there Thompson supported McCain against George W. Bush and the pundits are taking odds on who Thompson will throw his support to this time.
Meanwhile if Scott Rasmussen is getting it right, and he does much of the time, Hillary and Obama do have different constituencies which will have a bearing on who wins the nomination. Probably a majority of both camps will rally around the ultimate winner, however.
2008 Democratic Presidential Primary
Clinton and Obama Have Different Bases of Support
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Following her popular-vote victory in Nevada's caucus last week, Senator Hillary Clinton is as much a frontrunner as she was before Senator Barack Obama's victory in Iowa on January 3.
But, Senator Barack Obama's success to date has added a surprising dynamic to the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Polling data for the week ending January 20 highlights different bases of supports for Senators Clinton and Obama.
Senator Clinton leads among women 44% to 29% while Obama leads among men, 35% to 32%.
Clinton leads 43% to 23% among White Voters. Obama leads among African-American voters 62% to 19%.
Clinton leads 41% to 30% among Democrats. Obama leads among Independents likely to participate in a Democratic Primary 36% to 31%.
If Obama is not able to wrest the nomination away from Clinton, he will still command
Edwards attracts support from 19% of White Voters and 6% of African-Americans, 19% of men and 14% of women, 15% of Democrats and 19% of Independents.
This Saturday, Democratic voters will vote in South Carolina where polling suggests that the racial issues could move front and center. Obama is leading in that state, but Clinton has the advantage in Florida, California, New York, and New Jersey.
Rasmussen Markets data shows that the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination remains quite competitive. Market expectations give Clinton a 67.9% chance of winning the Democratic nomination while Obama has a 32.4% chance. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where players "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news futures, Rasmussen Markets harnesses competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events.
Prospects for other candidates and other races are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.
While the Democratic race is getting closer, the Republican campaign may finally be getting some clarity?-John McCain has become the frontrunner. He may be the biggest winner from Rudy Giuliani's decision to stay out of the early voting states.
Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day.
For the seven days ending January 13, Hillary Clinton earns 39% of the vote. Barack Obama is second at 31% followed by John Edwards at 16%. Dennis Kucinich is at 2% and 11% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are undecided (review history of weekly results).
The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.
Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.
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Obama does that, and Obama doing that certainly increases his chances of winning a General.
