Obama '08?

The big story in Nevada is how low the numbers are for John Edwards. Clinton was expected to be very strong, but Obama polled lower.

Several things still flying around and I look forward to hearing more after the dust settles.

1. Bill Clinton was in one of the caucus locations having his picture taken with caucusgoers. Unclear whether or not he actually engaged in conversations with caucusgoers inside the caucus location. This is highly questionable activity.

2. Ben Smith of Politico reports that the Bellagio ballroom was dominated by Hillary Clinton supporters and Hillary signs. Apparently the non-union hotel and casino workers showed up in large numbers to represent Clinton. Non-union workers accused the union workers of "being brainwashed" by the union.

3. Exit polls from MSNBC suggest strong showing with Clinton among Hispanic voters. This confirms the assumption of a Clinton pollster who believes that Hispanic voters are hesitant to support the unfamiliar candidate.

4. Politico.com reports that anti-Obama robocalls went out from an undisclosed source, naming "Barack Hussein Obama" four times and claiming that "he is an unknown".

My analysis: This campaign is coming down to Clinton v. Obama, Status-Quo v. New Leadership, Dirty Tactics v. Positive Campaign, Cynicism v. Trust, Fear v. Hope, Prejudice v. Openness, and Misinformation v. Honesty and Transparency.

I'm sure he got more in the first show, but apparently he fell below the 15% viability bar most everywhere.. (if it is 15%, like in Iowa)

In order to be entitled to elect delegates to the county convention, groups must have a certain minimum number of eligible caucus attendees in their group.


* There can be no more viable preference groups than there are delegates to elect from a particular precinct. If there are, the smallest groups must re-align until the # of groups equals the # of delegates to elect from that precinct.


Caucus Math

Caucuses which elect one (1) delegate No groups may form, the delegate must be elected by the whole caucus Caucuses which elect two (2) delegates Viable groups must contain 25% of attendees (# eligible attendees X .25) Caucuses which elect three (3) delegates Viable groups must contain 1/6th of attendees (# eligible attendees, divided by 6) Caucuses which elect four (4) or more delegates Viable groups must contain 15% of attendees (# eligible attendees X .15)

*Round all fractions UP to a whole number when determining viability

· Any preference group that is not viable must be given time to realign with preference groups that are viable or with another preference group that is also not viable.

Sure is disappointing. I wonder if Obama would have been better off allowing Clinton's lawsuit to halt the use of the casino caucus locations since the majority of her votes came from Las Vegas.

Seems like a high viability threshold for caucuses with one or two delegates.

Hm.

On Jan. 19, party caucuses meet in each precinct to choose delegates to county conventions. The delegates selected are not bound to any candidate. At the county conventions on Feb. 23, delegates to the state convention are chosen. They are not bound to any candidate. The state convention is April 18-20, during which delegates choose 25 of the 33 delegates to the national convention. Sixteen of the 25 delegates are allocated proportionally to presidential candidates based on the support for the candidates in each of the state's three Congressional districts. Nine delegates are allocated to candidates based on the support among all of the delegates attending the convention. The remaining eight unpledged delegates are chosen from party leaders.

Now this says something totally different so scratch that -- I'm rushed now, will come back and investigate more thoroughly later (though if anyone else wants to take it in the meantime, go for it).

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/

(On that scorecard it says that in NH Hillary got 11 delegates and Obama got 12??!)

Are the numbers you have been reporting, Butterflynet, headcounts of votes or how the delegates are going to end up being apportioned?

and that going into Nevada, the total numbers of national delegates so far was 25 for Obama, 24 for Clinton, and 18 for Edwards.