Obama '08?

What I do know is that the people didn't merely jump on the bandwagon. The media sounded quite convincing in predicting an Obama win tonight and that didn't happen. I'm disappointed but also buoyed. This is good.

All I know is that it all is a lot more complex than Obama got bitten by hype.

Think this is about McCain? That the independents went for him instead of Obama -- maybe even because with the polls and everything they thought Obama would win easily without their help?

What I'm wondering is how this Obama defeat will impact the rest of the voters in our country?

The good news, for me at least (sorry Nimh), this should pretty much spell the end for Edwards.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1950655/posts

Ever Get the Feeling You've Been Cheated? (Obama and the Nut Roots Meet the Clinton Machine)

Tuesday, January 8, 2008 | Kristinn

Posted on 01/08/2008 8:24:24 PM PST by kristinn

Hours before the voting started in New Hampshire today, the Hillary Clinton campaign was on the verge of implosion. At least that's what the Clinton campaign wanted us to believe.

The polls showed Barack Obama heading for a knockout blow against the inevitable Democratic presidential nominee. Hillary got teary eyed and her voice choked in a rare public display of emotion. Word was leaked that her campaign staff was going to be shaken up, that her campaign funding was in trouble and that pressure was mounting for her to drop from the race.

Tonight Hillary "stunned" the political world with a victory that seemed improbable this morning when the latest polls showed her down 13%.

We've been down this road before with the Clintons. They are masters of deception, feeding the media garbage that they breathlessly regurgitate and then marvel at how the Clintons beat the low expectations they set for themselves.

When then President Bill Clinton testified before a federal grand jury in the Monica Lewinsky case, the Clinton camp spread a tale of Bill Clinton flying into a 'purple rage' during his testimony.

Later, when videotape of his testimony revealed that he actually kept his cool, the media ignored the lies it had been fed and celebrated Clinton's coolness under fire.

The Clintons did it again tonight. Hillary's tears were as real as Bill's purple rage. All the while the media went with the story the Clintons wanted told about her diminished prospects in New Hampshire, their political machine was getting ready to put the shiv in Obama.

There was no way the Clintons were going to let Obama win. There will be stories of ballot shortages and other shenanigans, but that's all they'll be--stories told by embittered losers.
Welcome to the big leagues, Obama and the nut roots. As Johnny Rotten so famously asked, "Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?"

eoe wrote:

Oh please. Greatest political upset??? This is just the primaries. Damn the media. They make up this **** at a moments notice, throw it out there and pat each other on the back if it sticks. For a minute. Until another network throws another handful of crap.
Did anyone seriously think that it was over for Clinton after Iowa?

I agree, it's insane, but this is the type of press that Obama is now up against.

The media mistakenly reports [Obama's appeal] as mostly young people because they equate the new campaign technology and strategy with youth.

What We Can Learn From The Democratic Exit Polls

I've looked at the current Democratic exit polls, which, incidentally, are adjusted later to fit the final results, so what I have to say here must taken as subject to revision. What they show is that the pattern that held up earlier in the year between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama - not in terms of the extent of their support, but in terms of who is supporting them - is holding up in New Hampshire. Clinton is still doing well among women (particularly older and married women), traditional Democrats, voters over 40, and among lower-middle income white voters without college degrees who are worried about the economy. Obama is doing fabulously among the young and very well among independents and upscale Independents. Both of these can also be important blocs for a Democrat to win in the fall.

Here are the groups in which Obama enjoyed a significant margin over Clinton: men, young voters (18-24), voters making more than $50,000, voters with post-graduate education (a good indication of professionals), independents, first time voters, voters without religious affiliation, men without children and single men, voters who said they were getting ahead financially, voters who thought the war in Iraq was the most important issue, who wanted change, and who wanted someone who could unite the country.

Here are Clinton's groups: women, particularly married women, voters over 40, voters making less than $50,000, voters without a college degree, union voters, Democrats, Catholics (an important constituency for the Democrats), people very worried about the economy, voters who thought the economy was most important, voters who valued experience, and voters who evaluated candidates on whether they "care about people like me."

[..] Clinton's support by 38 to 20 percent over Obama on the question of which "one of these candidates "cares about people like me" is [..] interesting, and suggests that Obama has a different kind of charisma than Bill Clinton or George W. Bush. This was, too, Edwards' strongest category - the only one where he won more support than his rivals.

What does this mean for the future? If one assumes that Obama is the more likely nominee, it means that he is going to find a way of reaching white working class voters. If he can't, he'll have trouble winning a lot of those Midwestern swing states. Clinton, meanwhile, has to suggest those independents and independently-minded Democrats who don't look back nostalgically on the '90s that she would make a better nominee and president.

--John B. Judis