Obama '08?

Soz:

Pretty amazing! Polls, polls, and polls put him ahead....We want the confirmation. I don't doubt it, but want it all the same.

"They said this day would never come." Barack Obama

P.S. reading Jean Edward Smith "FDR" He didn't have a plan for the depression. He went on his intuition and his advisors. Just thought I would throw that into this discussion. He did a damn fine job!

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Hi Vietnamnurse - thanks for the 'shout-out'.

These are heady days, indeed.

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Thomas wrote:

Snood --

Needless to say, you don't have to answer my questions. But the following one does interest me, and maybe you just overlooked it, so I'll bump it for you.

Thomas wrote:
snood wrote:
Meanwhile, this is an article from the NYTimes about how blacks are encouraged and excited by Obama's win...

Are you excited and encouraged by Obama's win? Has it changed your opinion that Americans aren't ready for a Black president?

I am indeed excited and encouraged by Obama's win. And it has indeed made me less skeptical about the country's potential to elect a black man president.

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Congratulations Barak Obama. And good luck in New Hampshire. I was originally very sceptical partly because i didnt understnad the democratic caucus system. But watching how it worked I was well impressed. Its much better than any system we have here. And you Iowans have selected a fine man. Well done America and I'm just praying he makes it through the primaries and the national convention and the election and....well if some would explain it all in simple terms I'd be grateful!

Is he really going to be President....? I cant quite believe it.

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Yo, Steve.

Very interesting article in The Observer yesterday about the demise of the American Right, did you see it?

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McTag wrote:

Yo, Steve.

Very interesting article in The Observer yesterday about the demise of the American Right, did you see it?

The 'American Right' has become the American centre, perhaps?

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Not according to this guy. I'll look for it and link it. Excuse me.

Yes, here it is:

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,2235986,00.html

" Republicans aren't the victims of a string of misfortunes; they were the beneficiaries of a deeply unsettling period of war and terrorism. Now that fears of terrorism have dimmed and the Iraq war has turned from a political benefit to a political liability, it will likely become evident that the foundations of their party are crumbling."

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Remember when Obama first Edged out Hillary 52.5 to 46.5 for the nomination according to the gamblers (36 hours ago?)?

Well, those days are long gone. Check out their respective last sale prices this morning!

http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/668/gobama4sr8.jpg

Damn near 2 to 1 for the nomination.

But wait... there's more...

He is also now a clear favorite to be the next President of the United States:

http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/6968/gobama5ch3.jpg

http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/6968/gobama5ch3.78fad17ca4.jpg

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Thats a fascinating article McT thanks. (I bought the Observer yesterday but didnt read it!!!)

I hope there isnt another 9/11 and the Republicans win on the back of it.

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Steve 41oo wrote:

Congratulations Barak Obama. And good luck in New Hampshire. I was originally very sceptical partly because i didnt understnad the democratic caucus system. But watching how it worked I was well impressed. Its much better than any system we have here. And you Iowans have selected a fine man. Well done America and I'm just praying he makes it through the primaries and the national convention and the election and....well if some would explain it all in simple terms I'd be grateful!

Is he really going to be President....? I cant quite believe it.

Caucus is essentially a primary, and the rules vary throughout the States and indeed are not even necessarily the same between parties in the same state. Basically; whoever does well early becomes the favorite, which in turn means it's easier to raise money to continue, which in turn makes it easier to continue to win. Whoever wins the most in the Primaries will be named the nominee at the conventions (One Republican, One Democrat). Once upon a time; the States used to report their delegates at the conventions, and the nominee would be decided there. Today; the conventions are just a formality, since the winner will be known, before the primaries are even over. Think of it as a pep-rally and coming back together of the party, to begin focusing their combined energy against the other Party in the General Election. The General will feature the Republican and Democrat Primary winners, and a bunch of folks who basically have no chance of winning. Right now; Obama is about a 2 to 1 favorite to win the Primaries... and the Democrats in General are about a 2 to 1 favorite to win the Presidency. The game is far from over; but it looks pretty damn good for Obama so far.

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not sure if I understand the spread betting O'bill but thanks anyway.

(is that "price" effectively a percentage probability?)

For the first time in long time, I'm really quite interested in an election...US or Brit.

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So, a black guy whose name rhymes with Osama could become president of the good ole US of A ? Well, I never. Laughing

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Thanks for the explanation Obill.

So if New Hampshire "confirms" the Iowa result for Obama, will that make the other primaries swing into line behind him?

Two more questions please

Why does New Hampshire vote before the other states?

Do all states hold either caucus or primary elections, or do they have both?

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Tigershark wrote:

So, a black guy whose name rhymes with Osama could become president of the good ole US of A ? Well, I never.

I think thats quite admirable. We cant even vote for our Head of State.

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Steve 41oo wrote:

not sure if I understand the spread betting O'bill but thanks anyway.

(is that "price" effectively a percentage probability?)

For the first time in long time, I'm really quite interested in an election...US or Brit.

That is precisely what it means. This type of wager ends in either 0 or 100. Right now for the Primaries with Obama, it will cost you $63 for a shot at $100 or zero. For Clinton the same zero or $100 wager is only $34. Hence, Obama is about a 2 to 1 favorite, since you can buy nearly 2 Hillary shares for the price of one Obama.

In the next chart: Obama costs $39.90 to win $100 or 0 in the General election. (Far better than the next favorite candidate.) Gamblers are not stupid. You will notice that the total asking prices average out to approximately $100. You'll also notice that his presidential number is approximately 2/3s of his nomination numbers, which is a reflection of the fact that Democrats are currently favored about 2 to 1 for the General election. This type of gambling is not unlike trading stock in that demand determines the price of the share. If there are more buyers than sellers; the price goes up. More sellers than buyers and the price goes down. The difference is: soon every share will be worth either 100 or 0 (When the event takes place).

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Steve 41oo wrote:

Thanks for the explanation Obill.

So if New Hampshire "confirms" the Iowa result for Obama, will that make the other primaries swing into line behind him?

Two more questions please

Why does New Hampshire vote before the other states?

Do all states hold either caucus or primary elections, or do they have both?

Some caucus, some primary... but the result is the same in that they choose their prefered candidate that way. The timing is up to each state, though the Democrats and Republicans get pissy when States change their dates. Historically, they haven't really changed them too often.

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Steve 41oo wrote:

Thanks for the explanation Obill.

So if New Hampshire "confirms" the Iowa result for Obama, will that make the other primaries swing into line behind him?

Not necessarily. It certainly improves Obama's chances, but each state has its own unique makeup and preferences. It's not at all a given that if he wins both NH and Iowa, other states will vote for him, too.

Obama's and Hillary's situations are a bit unique this way since electability is very much an issue. Hillary has been considered by many to be the invincible powerhouse, and some have backed her for that reason. Obama has been considered by many to be a great guy but unelectable. Obama wins in IA and NH upend both of those assumptions, and so may have more influence than a win in those two states in a different sort of race.

Quote:

Why does New Hampshire vote before the other states?

Because the system is screwy. There was a bunch of jockeying for position this year, with states trying to get earlier in the process so they could get a piece of Iowa's action. (As you can see, the first few states have enormous influence -- the first state gets way way more attention from candidates [and way more money, from candidates, reporters, and various hangers-on as they spend time there] than the last state.) Iowa and NH are both voting much earlier this year than in years past, though they maintained the 1-2 order.

Quote:

Do all states hold either caucus or primary elections, or do they have both?

I'm pretty sure it's always one or the other, but I'm really researching each state as it comes up (IA, NH, SC, etc) so I'm not absolutely certain.

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Hey Sozobe, are you as psyched as I am in anticipation of the SC caucus? I'm dyin to see what the foregoing results do to the Black South Carolinians' voting...

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SC will be tremendously important regardless of the outcome in NH, but I think the impact of NH will carry over into SC. Tuesday is a very important day.

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Yep, I agree with both of the above. If Hillary carries NH I think that'll put a dent in SC but maybe not enough of a dent (i.e. Obama might still win SC anyway). If Obama carries NH... WOW.

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