Obama '08?

Damn, I love Americans. Just when you've written them off as hopeless, as a nation in decline, they turn around and do something extraordinary, which tells you why the United States of America is still the greatest nation on earth.

I think the international response to Obama will shock many Americans. Because it will be so massive. A round-up coming ... stay tuned.

"This feels good. It's just like I imagined it when I was talking to my kindergarten teacher,"

Question: If both Obama and McCain both manage to wins in New Hampshire, then wouldn't that prove, much to the chagrin of the far Left and the far Right, that those of us in the middle really are the majority?

nimh wrote:

nimh wrote:

but she does so in an especially elevated way in the South, in particular the borderlands (VA, KY, TN, MO, AR). Why there?

Sorry, I meant to add, "And why would the difference between how she and Obama fare be especially pronounced there?

I'm thinking racism, but I might be too pessimistic, and the data set is narrow..."

Less education and lower incomes there, which polls show both to be a disadvantage for Obama.

[H]ow much did the efficient Team Hillary machine really get the unscripted authenticity and spontaneity of the Iowa caucuses?

After the Clinton rally last night in Iowa City, a Clinton precinct captain sighed in frustration and, insisting on anonymity, shared this story. The precinct captain's friend, a school principal, had said he was trying to choose between Clinton and Obama. He was on his way into the rally when his cell phone rang. It was Obama.

Not a campaign staffer, a volunteer, or a robo-call. It was Barack Obama himself. The personal request proved to be sufficient, as the principal pledged his support directly to the candidate, turned on his heel, and walked out of the Clinton event.

Now, we all know Iowans are spoiled, and I've heard some stories of Clinton calling individual Iowans, albeit Iowans of the elected official rank. But the Clinton precinct captain told this tale as an example of frustration with the top-down organization of the Clinton campaign. An Obama precinct captain was able to get the word up through the county and state structure that this principal, not a party activist but certainly a neighborhood leader who'd look really persuasive standing in the Obama corner at his precinct, could be persuaded by a few words from the candidate.

The Clinton campaign, in contrast, ran a cautious general election campaign in the ultimate retail environment. But like a singer with perfect pitch who misses the meaning of the song, Clinton kept errors to a minimum but failed to capture the spontaneous spirit of the caucuses. She started out doing one-on-one meetings with undecided local activists, but as her national lead held, Clinton moved toward a "general election strategy," as she said at a debate. By the time Obama was catching up in the fall, it was too late to go back and adapt.

Well, that's not quite what I was saying, thought that's part of it. I also just don't want that f*ck-you, no-press-conferences-because-the-press-is-evil kind of atmosphere we've had with Bush.

This kind of stuff:

Quote:

Reporters' jabs and errors are long remembered, and no hour is too odd for an angry phone call. Clinton aides are especially swift to bypass reporters and complain to top editors. "They're frightening!" says one reporter who has covered Clinton. "They don't see [reporting] as a healthy part of the process. They view this as a ruthless kill-or-be-killed game."

On an evening late in April 1999, some 350 survivors of what they saw as a fight for the soul of the republic gathered at the Mayflower Hotel in Washington to honor Representative Henry J. Hyde and the twelve House managers who, under his leadership, had carried the charges of impeachment to the floor of the Senate. C-SPAN caught the distinctive, familial fervor of the event, which was organized to benefit the Independent Women's Forum, an organization funded in part by Richard Mellon Scaife and the "women's group" in the name of which Kenneth Starr volunteered in 1994 to file an amicus curiae brief arguing that Jones v. Clinton should go forward.

Live from the Mayflower, there on-screen were the familiar faces from the year-long entertainment that had preceded the impeachment, working the room amide the sedate din and the tinkling of glasses. There were the pretty women in country-club dinner dresses, laughing appreciatively at the bon mots of their table partners. There was the black-tie quartet, harmonizing on "Vive la, vive la, vive l'amour" and "Goodbye My Coney Island Baby" as Henry Hyde doggedly continued to spoon up his dessert, chockolate meeting mouth with metronomic regularity, his perseverance undeflected even by Bob Barr, leaning in to make a point.

The word "courage" was repeatedly invoked. Midge Decter*, a director of the Independent Women's Forum, praised Henry Hyde's "manliness," and the way in which watching "him and his merry hand" on television during the impeachment trial had caused her to recall "whole chunks" of Rudyard Kipling's "If."

From Concord, NH: Obama's Music

By Kenneth Baer | bio

While Concord High School looks brand new (or at least recently renovated), the gym reminds me of the gym from Back to the Future: old flannel banners line the walls, lots of iron supports criss-cross the ceiling, golden wooden bleachers flank the sides. It was a slice of Americana, and today, the second stop of the Obama campaign's New Hampshire return.

Four years ago, I was in a different gym in some town in New Hampshire whose name escapes me to see that year's Iowa winner, John Kerry. Then as in now, the place was packed. Then as in now, the elite of the media elite were there (Bob Schieffer, EJ Dionne, Ron Brownstein, Maureen Dowd - who bummed a stick of Orbit off of me -- Al Hunt, Rick Hertzberg, to name a few). Then as in now, everyone went to see the conquering Midwest hero.

But the differences were stark.

First, I saw no Burberry scarves; you know the ones: tan with the distinctive tartan pattern. In 2004, it was as if I made a wrong turn and ended up in Aspen or Louisburg Square. In Concord today, the crowd was generally local; middle and upper-middle class folks who actually looked like the people you may see browsing the aisles of your local Borders or grabbing a sandwich at the Panera just off Route 93 (where I sit as I write this). Not working-class, but not many people who prepped with the candidate's cousin either.

Second, and most importantly, in 2004, Kerry was hitting the right notes - Iraq, health care, education, etc. - but had no music. In 2008, Obama has the music. His speech today, which closely mirrored what he said last night, is a coherent argument about what is wrong with America (we are divided), and what needs to change (unite and bring about change). "The size of our challenges has outgrown the capacity of our politics to deal with them," Obama said. As Roger Simon notes, Obama is inspirational. If you listen carefully you can tell the buttons he is trying to push, but unlike many other politicians' speeches of the past few years, you don't feel as if the speech was written off of the latest poll (although its contents were almost certainly tested). That is, the buttons aren't readily apparent. It's music, not a random collection of notes.

To put a finer point on it, Obama is very skillfully making his case for where we are in American history, what comes next, and why he is the person to take us there - something every presidential candidate must do. His reprised his litany from the end of last night's speech about great moments in American history where hope prevailed (the Revolution, civil rights movement, etc); which explicitly links his campaign into the sweep of American life. That's what Reagan did; it's what Bill Clinton did; and it's even what George W. Bush did. In short, it's what presidents do.

Also to Obama's credit, the speech is much more about the audience, and less about him - "I believe in you" is his explanation for why he decided to run. And unlike last night's victory speech, an address in which the "notes" were faint, today he hit the issues a bit harder. He got into some specifics about his health care plan, covered a range of issues from Darfur to CAFE standards, but he did not mention the name of one piece of legislation. As a speechwriter, I say: good for him.

Add to all of that, Obama looked comfortable up there - something that we all expect, but forget how rare it is until one sees it again in person. He opened up his speech by calling up the two young people who organized the rally, praising them, and kidding with the crowd about how he had to work as hard as they and all the organizers do. It was a very genuine moment.

Like others, I don't want to get overwhelmed with the moment and swept into the frenzy for Obama. But, from my highly predictive focus group of New Hampshire voters (the guy at the car rental desk at the airport; the elderly couple and their daughter who sat behind me at lunch; and a woman walking her dog down the block from the high school), New Hampshire has some Obamania. And from the media folks I spoke with, they feel his mo-jo; they are impressed with it; and they can't for the life of them figure out how Hillary can overcome it.

I will write more about that later.

Now, I have to go find my hotel, and then off to the 100 Club dinner in Milford where all the Democratic candidates will speak.
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Jan 4, 2008 -- 04:00 PM EST | Tags: Clinton, Hillary | Obama | Pres '08

OCCOM BILL wrote:

Question: If both Obama and McCain both manage to wins in New Hampshire, then wouldn't that prove, much to the chagrin of the far Left and the far Right, that those of us in the middle really are the majority?

Yeah, see that was kinda also the background to my question.

Is Obama for "those of us in the middle", someone who's not in thrall to "the far Left"?

Or is he someone who will not "play the center", "NOT another mealy-mouthed 'moderate'", someone who will represent "the progressive wing of the party"?

I dunno, it cant be both can it? So who's Rohrshaching?

January 3, 2008


Basu: Obama's win spans spectrum of hopeful voters

BY REKHA BASU
THE REGISTER

Jason Casini used to be a conservative Republican. So conservative that when he was a student at Iowa and editing the college newspaper, he was the target of a protest rally.

"Racist, sexist, anti-gay, Jay Casini go away," chanted the picketing students who denounced him over positions The Daily Iowan had taken.

Casini voted for George W. Bush, both times. Until Thursday, he was a lifelong Republican. But the Des Moines lawyer, 40, registered as a Democrat to caucus for Barack Obama.

Casini is at one end of the spectrum of Obama supporters -- that of the disaffected Republican propelled to vote Democratic. At the other end are young men with whom Ako Abdul-Samad works at Creative Visions. They are neither well-heeled nor professional -- nor white. But at their first caucus, they were getting to vote for an African-American man. And the idea of such a victory stimulated hope in an unprecedented way.

Obama's caucus win is an extraordinary accomplishment on so many levels.

Even with all its money and big-name endorsements, the Clinton campaign proved to be no match for the young senator from Illinois. He dominated by pulling in first-timers from the inner city, Republicans from the business world and many in-between. And that in a state that's 90-some percent white.

What that says is that people are fed up with the status quo and long for someone who can make us feel good about America, and ourselves, again.

Mike Huckabee's win on the Republican side, ironically, says the same thing.

During the campaign, Obama showed a capacity to inspire hope at a difficult time for America. Partly that's because of his own life story and partly because he embodies youth, vigor, leadership qualities and the ability to forge a unique connection to the rest of the world.

I observed the caucus process from King Elementary School, where the voters were overwhelmingly of color and for Obama. They sat patiently through a tedious process but were good-natured and upbeat -- and thrilled with the outcome.

It's hard, though, not to feel sorry for Clinton, who seems to have been hurt less by her gender than by being associated with the Democratic Party "establishment." Voters just aren't in the mood for a legacy from either party right now.

In choosing Obama, Iowans also went for someone they think can win in the general election. Many believe both Clinton and Edwards would energize the right wing. Casini, for example, believes that if Clinton got the nomination, a lot of crossover Republicans, including himself, would "be running right back to the Republican side." Obama is the only candidate he will support all the way through the election. He believes Obama is committed to eliminating "the hyper-partisanship." It's hard to tell how many Republican voters crossed over to support Obama.

But both anecdotally, and judging from the high number of independents that the Register's Iowa Poll earlier this week found in his corner (41 percent), it's likely there were many.

And though those Republicans didn't support Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor's win is another indication Americans are fed up with the party establishment. His populist defense of the little guy contrasts sharply with Mitt Romney's aura of class privilege and entitlement. Huckabee is the "compassionate conservative" Bush claimed to be but wasn't. Where Bush is ideologically driven, Huckabee shows he follows his own conscience, even though it leads him to some extreme positions, especially his seeming willingness to eradicate the line between church and state.

He'd be unlikely to win in the general election, but he has a preacher's ability to inspire people and make them feel he really cares about them.

Finally, Thursday night closes out what has been an exhilarating run for Iowa. We had the privilege of being able to see almost every candidate multiple times, and the voters of this state took that role seriously. I'm proud of Iowans for the terrific turnout, for giving such careful consideration to the candidates and for voting their consciences. This should teach the naysayers that whatever our size and demographics, we have thoughtful, independent-minded voters who will do what they think is right.

The Clinton Counter Attack
04 Jan 2008 09:02 am

"Hillary is pumped up," her campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, said on an internal conference call late last night. "She's ready to fight. We're ready to fight."

Channeling Howard Dean, perhaps intentionally, Solis Doyle said: "We're going to fight in New York, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, California. This is just the beginning."

Clinton's plane(s) -- two of them -- she does not not travel with her press corps -- landed here in New Hampshire at about 4 a.m.

Here is Clinton's game plan:

1. Swarm the state with surrogates; she has a deeper network in New Hampshire than any other state.

2. Two rallies a day; lots of retail events; lots of television interviews.

3. Find some way to go negative against Obama. Some Clinton advisers and aides say that the campaign have a storehouse of opposition research -- old and new -- that they'll use against Obama. In Iowa, being directly associated with negative attacks is seen as uncouth and un-Midwestern; in New Hampshire, rude remarks as as welcome as questions and answers.

4. Claim that Clinton never had a shot in Iowa because of the state's historical bias against women (it's only one of two to never have elected a woman as governor or member of Congress); that Edwards had cornered the Democratic vote and that Obama ran against the Democratic party and cornered the Democratic leading independents; that for a New Yorker to receive 25 percent of the vote or her is impressive (although.. I distinctly remember an HRC mailing calling her a Midwesterner).

By the way: Since 1972, four of nine Democratic nominees have finished second or worse in Iowa; but those four all finished first or second in New Hampshire; the calendar was much more drawn out in those cycles.

5. Point to Clinton's strength in New York, California and Florida; point out that Obama is bad in debates and that in contests that don't rely on retail politicking, she has an edge.

6. Run against the idea of John McCain as the Republican nominee; in other words, who's better to face McCain: Clinton or Obama?

7. Women, women, women. Playing the gender card again.

8. Have really, really good debate performances.

Clinton aides hint that now things'll get nasty
While you were sleeping, the chartered jet of the third-place finisher in the Iowa Democratic caucus winged its way from Des Moines to Manchester, N.H. And it sounds like some decisions were made on that plane that may alter the course of that party's presidential race.

At her concession speech in Des Moines on Thursday night, Hillary Clinton was all gracious and determined and smiling. But hours later on that flight someone named Mark Penn, who happens to be her chief political strategist, ominously told a gaggle of reporters, including The Times' Peter Nicholas, that the campaign's focus needs to shift now onto, you might have guessed, someone named Barack Obama.

The Illinois senator happens to be the first-place finisher in those same caucuses and now Clinton, once the inevitable Democratic nominee, is playing catch-up. Things could get nasty with some pretty sharp media contrasts made in coming days, it would seem. "This has been very much a referendum on her,'' said Penn. "And people will take a harder look at the choice and the kind of president who will be needed in these times.''

Penn hinted that the Clinton campaign may be poised to mount a more aggressive campaign in New Hampshire than in Iowa. "Time and again in the Democratic primaries," he said, ...

... "you've seen people latch onto the new, seemingly fresh candidate only to then take a sobering look at the choice they have when it comes down to the end of it. I think you're going to see that again.''

He claimed that Obama's record is comparatively unexplored and he suggested the news media should ask itself about taking a closer look at Obama's history. "Does everyone know everything they need to know about Barack Obama?'' Penn asked. "That's a decision you're going to have to make. I think at this point his record is not very well-known. And she is really well-known. She's fully vetted, fully tested. And I don't think that process has occurred with Barack Obama.''

For weeks now Clinton aides have been threatening on and off the record to use some bad stuff against their chief opponent. First, two of them told conservative columnist Robert Novak that the Clintons had very damaging information on Obama, but they weren't going to use it. Then Billy Shaheen, her New Hampshire co-chair, said that though no Democrat would use Obama's admitted youthful drug use against him, boy, would the Republicans have a field day with that later this year.

Early this morning, Penn told Nicholas that he didn't believe Obama was positioned to win in New Hamsphire, which votes Tuesday. "The only thing Obama has going for him in New Hampshire," Penn added, "is some sense of momentum. Let's see whether or not that sustains itself ... when people really focus in on the choice of picking a president.''

Some adjustments need to be made in the Clinton strategy, Penn admitted. Clinton's strongest appeal in Iowa, he said, was with older voters. Now, she must reach across generational lines. "I think her appeal as we move forward can be broader than it was [in Iowa],'' Penn said. "And I think that will happen.''

The architect of the Clinton campaign claimed that she is still positioned to win the nomination and he sought, as every political strategist would at a time like this, to play down the Iowa setback. "This is a bump in the road," he said. "No question about that. But we're in a very, very strong position to move forward and tackle the challenges that this presents.''

Kinda makes you remember that long internal memo that someone named Mike Henry wrote to Clinton last spring. At the time he was her deputy campaign manager. And he wrote: "My recommendation is to pull completely out of Iowa and spend the money and Senator Clinton's time on other states. If she walks away from Iowa, she will devalue Iowa ?- our consistently weakest state."

At the time the campaign disavowed that leaked document.

But that was last spring. And this is now.

-- Andrew Malcolm

People who complain that Barack Obama lacks experience must be unaware of his legislative achievements. One reason these accomplishments are unfamiliar is that the media have not devoted enough attention to Obama's bills and the effort required to pass them, ignoring impressive, hard evidence of his character and ability.

I would like to see the polls that show him doing any more poorly in the South than other recent Dems.