cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Tue 1 Feb, 2011 07:12 pm
@parados,
ican's only conclusion are the numbers he posts. That's because he's a one-dimensional poster on a2k.
0 Replies
 
plainoldme
 
  1  
Tue 1 Feb, 2011 09:49 pm
@cicerone imposter,
I think that her interview with Katie Couric did more for Katie than for the vice presidential candidate. I remember so many people remarking on Katie's poise, saying they would have started screaming at palin. I wondered if there wasn't a hold in Couric's office wall when the whole thing was over. You know, where Couric butted her head.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Tue 1 Feb, 2011 10:04 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
I didn't hope for much from this crowd and they behaved more or less as I expected. I was suprised at the President's passivity with respect to his strong majority in Congress - very untypical behavior in such cases. However it is becoming increasingly clear that what his claques took (and perhaps still take) for intelligence and leadership is merely rhetorical skill. In fact he didn't do all that well in accomplishing his legislative agenda, given the bulletproof majorities he had in both houses of Congress - giving up on single payer HC and Cap & Trade were significant political setbacks considering the weak numbers Republicans held in the Congress. Indeed the spectacle of the rush to pass an incredily complex Health Care bill, replete with torturous, unworkable features designed to get the CBO deficit score as low as possible, and the blatant bribes offered to Democrat Senators to get the 2000+ page bill passed started a series of events that later turned independents against him en massee.

I wouldn't be so blithely conficent about the survival of the Health care legislation. While your assertions about the futility of the House vote for repeal and the follow-on effort in the Senate are certainly correct, I think you underestimate the cumulative effect of these acts; the Judicial challenges already on the table; the selective modifications the parties have independently offered to consider; and the likely refusal of the House to appropriate funds for key aspects of this complex legislation.

I agree the odds are that Obama will get a second term. However, depending on how the next 15 months or so go, he may still face a serious prospect of losing. All told a very significant loss of political strength for the first two years of any new Presidential term - particularly considering the strength of his (and his party's victory in 2008.

A lot can change in either direction during the coming year. In such siutuations it is generally advisable to work hard to avoid becoming the chief consumer of your own propaganda.
talk72000
 
  1  
Tue 1 Feb, 2011 10:09 pm
Foreign affairs always favor the President and if Egypt goes well it will reflect very well on Obama.
H2O MAN
 
  -2  
Wed 2 Feb, 2011 03:06 am
@talk72000,

Bolton Says Obama ‘Basically Doesn’t Care About’ Foreign Policy, Compares Him to Dukakis
hawkeye10
 
  -1  
Wed 2 Feb, 2011 03:16 am
@H2O MAN,
Quote:
Bolton Says Obama ‘Basically Doesn’t Care About’ Foreign Policy, Compares Him to Dukakis
Without doubt, but he sure fixed Hillarys wagon don't you think? She has been disappeared.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Wed 2 Feb, 2011 09:45 am
@georgeob1,
Quote:
giving up on single payer HC and Cap & Trade were significant political setbacks considering the weak numbers Republicans held in the Congress.


Is this serious? You consistently forget the fact that the Republicans Filibustered every single major bill. This requires 60 votes to pass EVERYTHING. The Dems had 60, but Lieberman was unreliable and with Kennedy and Johnson's health problems they didn't even have that for much of the session.

What you describe just doesn't match reality. The Dems passed all the things you mention - in the House, where they really did have large majorities. Then they died in the Senate, where the Republicans just filibustered everything that came up. That's not Obama's fault.

I would also point out that Obama made a major point in his campaign for prez, that the WH doesn't run the legislative branch, and the way that the Republicans handled it was inappropriate and downright wrong. He promised to let the other parts of government run themselves; and the result is less effectiveness than one might have hoped.

You say that independents turned 'against him en masse. ' There's little evidence that this is true. Polling evidence, even on election day, doesn't support your claim at all. It certainly doesn't right now. I wish you'd refrain from posting lies like this without supporting evidence.

There is no 'cumulative effect' to failed votes to change something. Those votes essentially mean nothing at all, no more so than the Cap-and-trade votes that were passed in the House last cycle. The judges who have ruled against HCR have not impressed me - or our nations legal scholars - with their logic. I am not worried about the SC review of the issue for even a second; examining the last 30 years of the SC expanding and utilizing the Commerce clause ought to give those who are relying upon them to strike down this bill on those grounds shivers.

Any president faces a chance of losing the upcoming election, but that doesn't mean that Obama isn't in a good position. The lack of a strong candidate on the other side helps, as does the craziness of the Republicans holding the House right now.

You state,

Quote:
All told a very significant loss of political strength for the first two years of any new Presidential term - particularly considering the strength of his (and his party's victory in 2008.


This is perfectly untrue. Obama got more significant programs passed in his first two years than any president in decades. His approval ratings track pretty much exactly with Reagan and Clinton's at this point. The public still indicates via polling that they trust him far more than the Republicans on every issue. What, exactly, is the loss of strength?

I think that more than anything else it's a rhetorical construct in your mind. A projection.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Wed 2 Feb, 2011 05:06 pm
The 1st amendment to the Senate's deliberation passed as expected. It would repeal that businesses would have to provide 1099's on any vendor who provided $600 or more of goods in a year.
Now under debate, the amendment to repeal the entire health care bill.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Wed 2 Feb, 2011 05:29 pm
@realjohnboy,
Defeated...51-47
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Wed 2 Feb, 2011 05:32 pm
The Senate has just finished voting on the largely symbolic attempt to repeal the entire health care legislation. 47 voted in favor of repeal while 51 voted against repeal, as near as I can tell, split as expected on party lines.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Wed 2 Feb, 2011 05:57 pm
@realjohnboy,
rjb, The legal advisor on CNBC said that the challenge to repeal ObamaCare has legal merit.

I guess we'll just have to see what happens in the SC with Roberts' vote making the difference.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Wed 2 Feb, 2011 07:14 pm
@cicerone imposter,
You think the swing is Roberts not Kennedy?

Interesting.
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  -1  
Wed 2 Feb, 2011 08:40 pm
CORRECTIONS
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2051527/posts
Maximum income tax rates were decreased by a factor of 0.5 from the 70% they were in 1981 to the 35% they have been 2003 to 2010.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2009/pdf/hist.pdf
Federal Receipts during the period 1980 - 2007 increased by a factor of 4.97 from $0.517 to 2.568 trillion, and decreased by a factor of o.843 during the period 2007 - 2010 from $2.568 trillion to 2,165 trillion.

Federal Outlays during the period 1980 - 2010 increased by a factor of 6.30 from $0.591 to $3.721 trillion.

Federal Deficits during the period 1980 - 2000 decreased from -$0.0738 to +0.236 trillion, and increased during the period 2007 - 2010 from +$0.236 trillion to -1.556 trillion..

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt
Civilian Non-institutional Population during the period 1980 - 2007 increased more than a factor of 1.41 from 168 to 238 million.

Total US Civil Employment during the period 1980 - 2007 increased more than a factor of 1.47 from 99.3 to 146 million.

Total US Civil Employment during the period 2007 - 2010 decreased by more than a factor of 0.95 from 146 to 139 million.

Quote:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2051527/posts
Partial History of U.S. Federal Income Tax Rates
MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM INCOME TAX RATES 1971 TO 2010
1971-1981: minimum = 14%; maximum = 70% [CARTER 1977-1981]
1982-1986: minimum = 11%; maximum = 50% [REAGAN 1981-1989]
1987-1987: minimum = 11%; maximum = 38.5%
1988-1990: minimum = 15%; maximum = 33% [BUSH41 1989-1993]
1991-1992: minimum = 15%; maximum = 31%
1993-2000: minimum = 15%; maximum = 39.6% [CLINTON 1993-2001]
2001-2001: minimum = 15%; maximum = 39.1% [BUSH43 2001-2009]
2002-2002: minimum = 10%; maximum = 38.6%
2003-2009: minimum = 10%; maximum = 35%
2009-2010: minimum = 10%; maximum = 35%[OBAMA 2009-2010]

Quote:

http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy11/hist.html
tYear.......FEDERAL RECEIPTS
1980......$0.517 trillion [CARTER]
1988….….$0.909 trillion [REAGAN] average annual increase = +0..0490 trillion
1992......$1.091 trillion [BUSH41] average annual increase = +0.0455 trillion
2000......$2.025 trillion [CLINTON] average annual increase = +0.0624 trillion
2008......$2.524 trillion [BUSH43] average annual increase = +0.0624 trillion
2010......$2.165 trillion [OBAMA] average annual increase = -0.180trillion

Year.......FEDERAL OUTLAYS
1980.......$0.591 trillion [CARTER]
1988….….$1.064 trillion [REAGAN] average annual increase = 0.059 trillion
1992......$1.382 trillion [BUSH41] average annual increase = 0.080 trillion
2000......$1.789 trillion [CLINTON] average annual increase = 0.051 trillion
2008......$2.983 trillion [BUSH43] average annual increase = 0.143 trillion
2010......$3.721 trillion [OBAMA] average annual increase = 0.369 trillion


Year………FEDERAL SURPLUS(+) OR DEFICITS(-)
1980.......-$0.074 trillion [CARTER]
1988….….-$0.155 trillion [REAGAN]
1992.......-$0.290 trillion [BUSH41]
2000.......+$0.236 trillion [CLINTON]
2008.......-$0.458 trillion [BUSH43]
2010........-$1.556 trillion [OBAMA]

Quote:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_U.S._public_debt

Year………GROSS FEDERAL DEBT
1980.......$0.908 trillion [CARTER]
1988….….$2.602 trillion [REAGAN] average annual increase = 0.2115 trillion
1992........$4.065 trillion [BUSH41] average annual increase = 0.3503 trillion
2000.......$5.674 trillion [CLINTON] average annual increase = 0.2034 trillion
2008.......$10.025 trillion [BUSH43] average annual increase = 0.503 1trillion
2010.......$13.562 trillion [OBAMA] average annual increase = 1.7685 trillion


Quote:

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt

Year……TOTAL CIVILIAN NON-INSTITUTIONAL POPULATION
** = The years after 2006 when Democrats were in the majority in both houses of Congress.
1980………….............…. 167.745 million [CARTER]
1988……….....+......…… 184.613 million [REAGAN]
1992……….....+.....….… 192.805 million [BUSH41]
2000……….....+.....…... 212.577 million [CLINTON]
2004……….....+.....….… 223.357 million [BUSH43]
2006……….....+.....….… 228.815 million [BUSH43]
2007……….....+.....….… 231.867 million [BUSH43] **
2008……….....+.....….… 233.788 million [BUSH43] **
2009……….....+.....….… 235.801 million [OBAMA] **
2010……….....+.....….… 237.830 million [OBAMA] **

Year……TOTAL US CIVIL EMPLOYMENT
** = Years after 2006 when Democrats were in the majority in both houses of Congress.
1980………….. . .........…….99.302 million [CARTER]
1988……….....+......…… 114.968 million [REAGAN]
1992……….....+.....….… 118.492 million [BUSH41]
2000……….....+.....…... .136.891 million [CLINTON]
2004……….....+.....….… 139.252 million [BUSH43]
2006……….....+.....….… 144.427 million [BUSH43]
2007……….....+.....….… 146.047 million [BUSH43] **
2008……….....-.....….… .145.362 million [BUSH43] **
2009……….....-.....….… 139.877 million [OBAMA] **
2010……….....-.....….… 139.064 million [OBAMA] **

Year.…….PERCENTAGE OF CIVILIAN POPULATION EMPLOYED
** = Years after 2006 when Democrats were in the majority in both houses of Congress.
1980………...........….… 59.2 [CARTER]
1988……….....+.....…… 62.3 [REAGAN]
1992……….....-.....….… 61.5 [BUSH41]
2000……….....+.....…… 64.4 [CLINTON]
2004……….....-.....….… 62.3 [BUSH43]
2006……….....+.....…… 63.1 [BUSH43]
2007……….....-.....….… 63.0 [BUSH43] **
2008……….....-.....….… 62.2 [BUSH43] **
2009……….....-.....….… 59.3 [OBAMA] **
2010……….....-.....….… 58.5 [OBAMA] **

parados
 
  1  
Wed 2 Feb, 2011 08:46 pm
@ican711nm,
I really get a kick out of you numbers still ican especially where you claim US employment is now less than 5%.
ican711nm
 
  0  
Thu 3 Feb, 2011 08:07 am
@parados,
parados wrote:
I really get a kick out of you numbers still ican especially where you claim US employment is now less than 5%.

WRONG, Parados!

ican711nm wrote:
Total US Civil Employment during the period 2007 - 2010 decreased by more than a factor of 0.95 from 146 to 139 million.


That is: 139 million equals more than 0.95 x 146 million.

146 - 139 = 7
100% x 7/146 = 100% x 0.047945205 = more than 4.79% or almost 5%.

parados
 
  1  
Thu 3 Feb, 2011 08:30 am
@ican711nm,
Yeah ican..

You said employment went down by 139 million
Quote:
decreased by more than a factor of 0.95


I point out your error and you STILL don't get it. I don't think it's ignorance in your case.
ican711nm
 
  0  
Thu 3 Feb, 2011 10:24 am
@parados,
ican711nm wrote:
Total US Civil Employment during the period 2007 - 2010 decreased by more than a factor of 0.95 from 146 to 139 million.


Total US Civil Employment during the period 2007 - 2010 decreased from 146 to 139 milion. A decrease from 146 to 139 milion is by a factor of 139/146 = 0.952054594 which is more than a factor of 0.95.

OR: Total US Civil Employment during the period 2007 - 2010 decreased from 146 to 139 milion. A decrease from 146 to 139 million is a decrease of 100% x (146-139)/146 = 100% x 7/146 = 4.7945205% = approximately 5%.

Total US Civil Employment during the period 2007 - 2010 decreased from 146 to 139 milion. This is not a decrease of employment to 5%.

parados
 
  0  
Fri 4 Feb, 2011 09:41 am
@ican711nm,
So are you decreasing 146 by 5% or are you decreasing it by 95%?
0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  -2  
Fri 4 Feb, 2011 03:44 pm
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2051527/posts
Maximum income tax rates were decreased from 70% in 1981 to 35% in 2003, and remained at 35% 2003 - 2010.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2009/pdf/hist.pdf
Federal Receipts during the period 1980 - 2007 increased from $0.517 to $2.568 trillion, and during the period 2007 - 2010 decreased from $2.568 trillion to $2,165 trillion.

Federal Outlays during the period 1980 - 2010 increased from $0.591 to $3.721 trillion.

Federal Deficits during the period 1980 - 2000 decreased from -$0.0738 to +$0.236 trillion, and during the period 2000 - 2010 increased from +$0.236 trillion to -$1.556 trillion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_U.S._public_debt
Year………GROSS FEDERAL DEBT
1980.......$0.908 trillion [CARTER]
1988….….$2.602 trillion [REAGAN], average annual increase 1980 - 1988 = $0.2118 trillion
1992........$4.065 trillion [BUSH41], average annual increase 1988 - 1992 = $0.3658 trillion
2000.......$5.674 trillion [CLINTON], average annual increase 1992 - 2000 = $0.2011 trillion
2008.......$10.025 trillion [BUSH43], average annual increase 2000 - 2008 = $0.5439 trillion
2010.......$13.562 trillion [OBAMA], average annual increase 2008 - 2010 = $1.7685 trillion

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt
Civilian Non-institutional Population during the period 1980 - 2010 increased from 168 to 238 million.

Total US Civil Employment during the period 1980 - 2007 increased from 99.3 to 146 million, and during the period 2007 - 2010 decreased from 146 to 139 million.

0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Fri 4 Feb, 2011 06:30 pm
Gallup is out today with an interesting review re how various Presidents fared after completing two years in office (i.e. about Jan 20th of their 1st term).
Obama is regarded favorably by 13% of Repubs vs 81% of Dems (gap: 68)
Reagan came in at 79%-23% (gap: 56)
Clinton: 19%-73% (gap: 54)
GW Bush: 95%-51% (gap: 44)
 

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