Obama '08?

@sozobe,

soz

One of the interesting aspects of the election right now is the regularly repeated notion that the polls will tighten. The trailing candidate/party, as a tried and true propaganda axiom, will insist that this is happening or will happen. Thus the Drudge/Fox etc suggestions we see presently. But the Obama camp is saying the same thing, at least in part to keep the troops motivated but also possibly, as Obama and others say, because this tends to happen (and it may, I just don't have data on this).

But I suspect that this election might evolve differently.

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Quote:

NYU poll: Two-thirds of U.S. Jews back Obama over McCain

By Haaretz Service

Tags: Israel News, Barack Obama

A new poll commissioned by researchers at New York University reveals that American Jews favor Democratic presidential frontrunner Barack Obama over his Republic rival, John McCain, by a 67 - 33 percent margin.

The survey, which sampled the opinions of over 3,000 respondents - half of them being Jewish - also found that Jews as an ethnic group will support Obama by almost 30 percent more than other white, non-Hispanic voters...The poll was conducted this past September, when the gaps in poll numbers between Obama and McCain were smaller. Given the recent numbers favoring Obama, the survey's authors project that the ratio of Jewish voters backing the Illinois Democrat would swell from 2-to-1 to 3-to-1.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1030165.html

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@blatham,

I don't think this one is propaganda -- I think it's very possible and that the Obama campaign is very, very smart to guard against complacency and/ or overconfidence.

I do think that was part of what happened in New Hampshire for example (and I think Obama was smart to bring that up). The polls showed that he'd win handily, the campaign got a little cocky (did the big rallies rather than the smaller town halls they'd been doing, and that Hillary was doing while she campaigned there). The press had him coronated, pretty much. And people reacted against that -- oh, you think you know what to expect, eh? Well you've got another think coming.

Of course the McCain campaign is interested in a comeback narrative, but I really don't think it's as simple as that. I think there isn't some objective reality of what will happen in the next two weeks -- I think certain scenarios are more or less likely but what the campaigns actually do has an impact. Obama is handling this stretch very, very well. McCain is not. If McCain tries for another big game-changer or just overreaches with the slime (Ayers has already been shown to NOT be effective) then things could still open up in Obama's favor. But a few things could happen that would mean advantage McCain, too.

Just two weeks left/ a whole fourteen days left. Lots could happen yet.

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@sozobe,

Quote:

I do think that was part of what happened in New Hampshire for example (and I think Obama was smart to bring that up). The polls showed that he'd win handily, the campaign got a little cocky (did the big rallies rather than the smaller town halls they'd been doing, and that Hillary was doing while she campaigned there). The press had him coronated, pretty much. And people reacted against that -- oh, you think you know what to expect, eh? Well you've got another think coming.

On this point, I completely agree. Both campaigns are doing what seems to be smartest re how they speak about the race tightening.

I'm just saying that even if this tightening scenario is typical or predictable, it may not happen in this quite unusual case.

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@blatham,

I agree with that. May, may not.

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@sozobe,

Quote:

The polls showed that he'd win handily, the campaign got a little cocky (did the big rallies rather than the smaller town halls they'd been doing, and that Hillary was doing while she campaigned there). The press had him coronated, pretty much. And people reacted against that -- oh, you think you know what to expect, eh? Well you've got another think coming.

That's why John McCain has started making comments like "He's already picking out drapes and naming his cabinent." He's trying to generate the same kind of backlash.

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@blatham,

blatham wrote:

the Obama camp is saying the same thing, at least in part to keep the troops motivated but also possibly, as Obama and others say, because this tends to happen (and it may, I just don't have data on this).

The race does tend to tighten in the last half a month, if not always by much -- according to contemporary Gallup polling, it did in 2004, 2000 (ambiguously), 1996, 1992, 1976, 1968, 1964, 1960 (ambiguously), 1952 and 1940. In 1980 and 1948 the other guy even came from behind to win.

Only rarely did the frontrunner widen the gap in the end stretch - only in 1988, 1956 and 1936, according to the Gallup data (which gets sparser the further back you go). In the remaining years (1984, 1972, 1944) the homestretch was a wash.

Gallup Presidential Election Trial-Heat Trends, 1936-2004

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I think most people are confused about who's winning in this election, because people do not see both the "popular" vote and the "electoral" vote side-by-side.

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This is just a totally random bit of observation that is not relevant to anything. Has anyone noticed how much Obama looks like his grandfather? Take a look at the third picture in this slide show.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/21/obamas-grandmother-madely_n_136460.html

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@FreeDuck,

The similarities can't be questioned. The conservatives continued use of "he's a Arab" (nothing wrong with being an Arab, since we have many in the US and the world), questions their own respect for our country that is made up of most cultures in this world. It only points out their small minds and tendency towards discrimination of minorities based on ignorance.

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@cicerone imposter,

Here's the latest from Reuters (he's now leading McCain by 8 points):

Quote:

Obama, an Illinois senator, expanded his lead among two key swing groups. His advantage with independent voters grew from 11 to 15 points, and his edge with women voters grew from 8 to 13 points.

I would guess at this juncture that those two important groups will increase for Obama between now and November 4. McCain and Palin are helping in this change.

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@nimh,

Good man. Thanks nimh.

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@FreeDuck,

Funny, yes, I was thinking that when I saw this photo on Andrew Sullivan today:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/images/2008/10/20/madelyn_and_stanley_dunham.jpg

Ah, which is the same one as you referred to, just cropped differently!

edit: and when I went to get that picture, saw that Ta-Nehisi Coates thinks the same thing, too:

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/his-last-pare-1.html

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@blatham,

It's a good job nimh's post was music to Bernie's ears otherwise he would be an arsehole.

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Important info on the Florida election:

Quote:

Armies of Lawyers Are Ready to Roll

With Florida 2000 never far from the surface, both sides are ready for one or more sequels. Obama, in particular, has assembled what is de facto the nation's largest law firm, with 5000 lawyers ready to sue at the drop of a ballot. The challenges have already started, with multiple voter-registration cases in the courts right now. It makes one pine for the old days when elections were decided by the voters rather than by judges, as in 2000 and very possibly in 2008.

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Bob the Banker speaks out.
In an exclusive interview, Joe the Plumber's big brother reveals why Obama's plan to "spread the wealth" will turn America into a socialist hell.

Quote:

I'm Bob the Banker, and I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore. If Barack Obama wins, he's going to take my hard-earned money and hand it over to a bunch of deadbeats and losers. He's going to turn the greatest country on earth into a socialist hell. Nothing less than our free-enterprise system is threatened. I'm angry! I'm really, really angry! And when you hear exactly how deeply Obama's far-left tax scheme is going to reach into my pocket, you'll be even angrier.

Read the rest at the link to the Salon article.

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@cicerone imposter,

cicerone imposter wrote:

Important info on the Florida election:

Quote:
Armies of Lawyers Are Ready to Roll

With Florida 2000 never far from the surface, both sides are ready for one or more sequels. Obama, in particular, has assembled what is de facto the nation's largest law firm, with 5000 lawyers ready to sue at the drop of a ballot. The challenges have already started, with multiple voter-registration cases in the courts right now. It makes one pine for the old days when elections were decided by the voters rather than by judges, as in 2000 and very possibly in 2008.

It ain't just Florida. For more than a year now, the Obama campaign has been recruiting volunteer lawyers from every state to help protect the vote in their states.

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@Butrflynet,

Good to hear. Thanks for sharing that info.

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@sozobe,

Damn the Atlantic! Just when I think I'm having an original thought.

I remember thinking they looked alike in the face when looking at pictures of him with his grandfather as a kid and again with his grandfather already old. But that picture was just striking.

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@Butrflynet,

Now that is hilarious, thanks!

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

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