Obama '08?

@nimh,

nimh wrote:

A new, rare poll from West-Virginia shows Obama surprisingly close, just 5 points behind McCain, with 17% undecided. But it doesnt look like the Obama campaign is well-positioned to pick up on any opportunities here; while they fished deep and wide for new votes in as untraditional and far-flung states like Montana and Georgia, West-Virginia has apparently not been on the Obama map.

I recall you did an analysis during the primary that probably explains this. 17% undecided is very high, and I'm guessing they have internal polls that show it differently.

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@nimh,

Loved this interview. One point he made is one that I was trying to verbalize earlier in the week with now luck, and that is that even though McCain's pick has given energy to his campaign and quite a bounce in the polls, it is still basically a concession that Obama had the right message all along.

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@nimh,

What a good interview! I hadn't read the transcript, thanks for reminding me, FreeDuck.

I agree that the point you single out is a good one.

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@sozobe,

What good interview. They are are lying through their teeth except when they are asleep aren't they?

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General anecdotal note... much has been said about how Palin has energized the Republican base. Judging from my in-box, it's energized the Democratic base too. I usually have 5-20 non-spam emails per day at that account. Lately it's been 40-75. All kinds of different things, but a LOT of them are Obama volunteer efforts of one kind or another.

I'm sure that things would have been stepped up no matter what in this final push between the conventions and the election, so it's kind of hard to say what caused what. But I will say that the Obama campaign/ supporters seem plenty energized!

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@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

General anecdotal note... much has been said about how Palin has energized the Republican base. Judging from my in-box, it's energized the Democratic base too. I usually have 5-20 non-spam emails per day at that account. Lately it's been 40-75. All kinds of different things, but a LOT of them are Obama volunteer efforts of one kind or another.

I'm sure that things would have been stepped up no matter what in this final push between the conventions and the election, so it's kind of hard to say what caused what. But I will say that the Obama campaign/ supporters seem plenty energized!

The problem, from my perspective, is that many of the types that are likley to be energized on the left are the same people dreaming up the stupid allegations against Palin on forums like this one. Hopefully the one's contacting you aren't because they are doing more damage than good.

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@fishin,

I think you have to define "stupid" a bit. The rape kit stuff? The "Bridge to Nowhere" lies? Todd Palin's subpoena?

There is definitely some hyperbole but I haven't seen any actually false stuff yet.

Mostly it's about organizing. Grass-roots stuff.

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@sozobe,

I was referring to the stuff about her kid actually being her daughter's, the nonsense CI was spewing yesterday about the war being "God's plan", the claims that she slashed Spec. Ed funding, etc...

That crap is keeping Palin in the news and Obama and Biden out of it. Press coverage, even negative press, will raise the McCain/Palin camp in the polls based on simple name recognition. It also makes all of the Democrats that have been screaming about how the Republican's play dirty in these campaigns look foolish.

Palin is a lighweight and shouldn't be getting 1/50th of the press coverage she's getting. The more outlandish the stuff people dream up is, the more coverage she'll continue to get. Biden is getting almost zero coverage because he's boring in comparison. The press corp has abandoned him.

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@fishin,

That first one petered out long ago. It's not the engine of any current press coverage, and not being mentioned at all anywhere I read (or in the emails I refer to).

The "God's plan" stuff is at least arguable. The NYT Editorial board today:

Quote:

Her answers about why she had told her church that President Bush’s failed policy in Iraq was “God’s plan” did nothing to dispel our concerns about her confusion between faith and policy. Her claim that she was quoting a completely unrelated comment by Lincoln was absurd.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/13/opinion/13sat1.html

The coverage I'm seeing is overwhelmingly about actual problems with her. I think the coverage is far less about any "fabrications" than about McCain's irresponsible choice of VP.

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@sozobe,

The problem (to my eye) is that the coverage is about her - good, bad or indifferent, she's got the media attention.

I hope Obama can haul it back in his direction. Preferably in a positive light of course.

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@ehBeth,

Errors deleted

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@sozobe,

Mr McCain has been in serious politics since 1981. He must by now know every possible choice of VP candidate at a personal level. He is experienced enough to maybe see the road ahead and chose his running mate in relation to that and not in relation to any old fashioned ideas.

That's what my Ted Hughes quote was all about.

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@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

That first one petered out long ago. It's not the engine of any current press coverage, and not being mentioned at all anywhere I read (or in the emails I refer to).

The items I'm referring to are still popping up in the blogsphere though. And the major press outlets are picking up on it and chasing the stories.

Quote:

The "God's plan" stuff is at least arguable. The NYT Editorial board today:

Quote:
Her answers about why she had told her church that President Bush’s failed policy in Iraq was “God’s plan” did nothing to dispel our concerns about her confusion between faith and policy. Her claim that she was quoting a completely unrelated comment by Lincoln was absurd.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/13/opinion/13sat1.html

Just another example of the NY Times Op-Ed folks not bothering to check the story before commenting on it.

Quote:

The coverage I'm seeing is overwhelmingly about actual problems with her. I think the coverage is far less about any "fabrications" than about McCain's irresponsible choice of VP.

That coverage I have no problem with at all. That's not the sort of chatter I was referring to. The latest story making the rounds is that Palin's son (the one that's in the Army) was a "major" drug dealer is Wasilla. The "source" is a supposed anonymous high school student. That of course, got started from the National Enquirer headline that ran the other day about he's supposedly addicting to Oxy and coke - a story that the National Enquirer is already backtracking on.

http://www.examiner.com/r-2106091~Palin_s_Son_A_Drug_Addict___i_Enquirer__i__Claims__Rumormonger_.html

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@ehBeth,

ehBeth wrote:

The problem (to my eye) is that the coverage is about her - good, bad or indifferent, she's got the media attention.

I hope Obama can haul it back in his direction. Preferably in a positive light of course.

Exactly!

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@fishin,

There's gonna be crazy stuff in the blogosphere. Period.

That's not what's popping up in my in-box, though -- that's not a part of the "energy" to which I refer.

Some samples:

- Someone keeps having Obama signs stolen from her yard. There is some discussion of whether it's by Obama supporters who want their own or Obama detractors who want the signs gone. Ends up being about the best places to get signs.

- Someone made an attempt at the next "Yes We Can" viral video. It seems OK, not great. (It's all positivity and uplift tho.)

- One long thread (emails, with infinite "re:"s in the subject line) is called "need ideas for involvement." Here's a sample:

Quote:

#1: Postcards, it is easy to meet for a playdate, coffee, etc. and write postcards to other women. Your local HQ has names and addresses of people in your state who are either not registered to vote or have voted DEM in the past and haven't voted in the primary.
#2: Phone calls, this one is hard for me because my kids are always making noise but you might be able to swing it if you are one of the lucky ones with a quiet baby!
3#: We are printing up Obama tshirts, put one on and take your baby for a walk. Invit e another mom to do the same. We saw a group of 4 or 5 women walking with the same tshirt on and everyone was rubber necking to see what was going on. You can also print out an 8 1/2 x 11 page from the website, laminate it and punch holes in the corners and either safety pin it to your back or tie it to the stroller.
#4: You can look on mybo to see if there are any events in your area. I really like the group walking idea, the babies get some fresh air, we get some exercise and we are very visable to others. You'll probably get other women who want to join you!

- Invitation to a canvass today (I'm not going) with Janet Napolitano and Kathleen Sebelius (yes, the governors of Arizona and Kansas, respectively).

Etc., etc., etc.

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@fishin,

Sure, I agree.

I think things have kind of stalled out at a good moment. There is still a lot about Palin but it's often about problems (she keeps contradicting McCain's stated policies), and McCain's lying is finally getting somewhere as a meme.

Wednesday was chock full 0' McCain weirdness, Thursday was 9/11 and a break from campaigning, Friday was Ike, today is Ike, tomorrow is Sunday. We'll see what Monday brings.

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Maybe Bill Clinton meeting Obama yesterday will help put Obama back on track since he has been through so much of this stuff himself--and he is a good politician and that's what we need.

Quote:

Barack Obama took a break from the campaign trail yesterday but did the next best thing, talking politics, national security and the economy with Bill Clinton, who knows a thing or two about winning national elections.

In a week where Obama has ceded momentum and poll numbers to the Republican ticket, their 90-minute lunch in Harlem came as some Democrats worried he has lost a bit of his political mojo.

Yesterday, Clinton offered a bold take on the outcome of the presidential race.

"I predict that Senator Obama will win and will win pretty handily," the former president said as Obama stood next to him. "That's what I think is going to happen."

Obama added that Clinton "knows a little something about politics" and that Clinton would be out on the trail.

"We're putting him to work," Obama said.

http://www.newsday.com/news/printedition/nation/ny-usobam125839443sep12,0,2808992.story

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@revel,

One of the disadvantages of a large political mojo is getting it up again once it's gone slack. And trying too hard usually compounds the problem.

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@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

Wednesday was chock full 0' McCain weirdness, Thursday was 9/11 and a break from campaigning, Friday was Ike, today is Ike, tomorrow is Sunday. We'll see what Monday brings.

not quite what I've been seeing.

here it looked more like McCain and Palin over and over
Thursday was McCain, 9/11 and Palin's interview with Charles Gibson
Friday was McCain on The View, Ike and more on Palin's interview with Charles Gibson
Today started with McCain on the View, Ike and Palin with Charles Gibson again

there were a couple of brief references to Obama's appearance on Letterman but they were brief brief brief - with positive comments following them most times I saw them (CNN not so positive - talk of how Obama doesn't react well to being surprised - what to do what to do)

McCain/Palin have the general public/general media momentum right now. They've even taken over the Entertainment Tonight/Showbiz Today slots that occasionally featured Obama (not a great measuring tool but a lot of people watch that programming - more than the political stuff)

The best thing for Obama right now seems to be that McCain kinda fouled out on The View - but still, the talk is about McCain.

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@ehBeth,

I'm definitely not up on the Entertainment Tonight/ Showbiz Today stuff.

They (McCain/ Palin) definitely have more focus than Obama right now, for sure.

By "stalled" I mean there is a lot of going over stuff that already happened, like McCain's weirdnesses Wednesday and breaking down the various lies therein. NYT finally got around to that one today.

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