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Wed 6 Nov, 2002 06:43 am
O.K. all you seers and soothsayers. The stock market will be opening in less than two hours. What do you think the impact of the election will be on the stock market and the economy in general, both immediately and long term?
Ain't goin' there. My string of good predictions ended somewhere around 1982. That was before the time the market would rise on bad news, because, hey, that meant the Fed would cut interest rates.
Awright, already - The stockmarket will fluctuate.
You will recognize the quote from J. Piermont Morgan.
I think we'll see a drop of 100 point or so in the DJIA by mid-next week and then a small overall increase through the end of this year and in to the 1st quarter of next year. I expect one nore big drop next spring/early summer before things rebound for good. The DOW is at 8680 or so this morning. It'll close up 60 points today but be back down to 8600 by next Wednesday. Expect 8700 by the end of the year peaking at 9000 in spring and then a plunge bak down in the 8000-8200 range next summer.
Anyone want to wager a beer on that? :wink:
fishin'- I'm not a betting person, but I WILL take the beer, thank you!
Hmm...very brave of fishin' to predict the stock market (also talking to dead people, maybe
) The market is once again strongly in the hands of the specialists who have huge amounts of money from the small percentage of super wealthy -- they can and do manipulate the market to drive small investors out and lure them back in. It's a moot point -- average investors can't play the market like a slot machine. Invest with some smart advice and figure on a twenty year plan (through two major bear markets, traditionally) and reap the rewards! The market is unlikely to regain its losses for several years and can be a lucrative buyers market right now for those willing to wait.
I think one likely consequence is a heightened price gouging by energy companies, who have been true highway robbers since the Cheney administration took over. This does not bode well for those with automobiles, and those in regions needing significant home heating this winter. It might be a cue to buy energy stocks, though. In the long term, absent intelligent economic policy (maybe i should have this response moved to a "fairy tale" thread), Wall Street will probably grow as disenchanted with the Shrub as they did with his daddy. However, that likely won't occur within two years, so prospects for the re-Shrubbery of the White House are good, and the Dems have no one worth putting up against the current Imperium. I have a bleak outlook for the near-term political AND economic prospects of the country.
Not sure I would go along with the hopeful outlook for energy stocks either. Maybe when we get some assurance that their financial statements are in line with reality, but now . . . ?
Good point, Boss, although the oil companies can hardly lose . . . it's fantasy companies like Enron that pull this crap, the old-line oil boys don't play those games because their hands are already deep in our pockets, and they can prosper without fiscal chicanery . . .
Politics as usual with Pitt resigning the day after the election. This doesn't make the internal infrastructure of the adminstration look good at all, not that it isn't appropriate for him to be shown the door after appointing the fox to protect the chicken coop.
The "experts" are saying that the wins by the GOP bodes well for our economy/businesses. When any time financial experts make a prediction, always think of the opposite of what they are claiming, and you'll be on target. c.i.
"The stock market will be opening in less than two hours. What do you think the impact of the election will be on the stock market and the economy in general, both immediately and long term?"
After almost 5 years are we not facing the reality?
Ramafuchs wrote:"The stock market will be opening in less than two hours. What do you think the impact of the election will be on the stock market and the economy in general, both immediately and long term?"
After almost 5 years are we not facing the reality?
yes, the Dow is up about 500 for the past 5 years. If you care to check, the 500 point increase is very steady excluding daily fluctuations.
Is it?
Thanks for your views about the fine development.
Ramafuchs wrote:Is it?
Thanks for your views about the fine development.
Yes it is and no it's not my views. 12/16/03 DOW=8511
12/09/07DOW=13625
Sir I had revived this thread after deep thought.
I read the develpments daily.
You are absolutely correct in your number crunch.
I have no regrets to see the last 5 years developments in a different way.
Accept my thanks