The beginning of the end? (For Tony Blair)

Finally tuning in to this thread, reading from the beginning - this by way of bookmark.

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Is it just me or does Tony Blair, amidst all this strife and turmoil, look ever more like Prince Charles?

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/archives/blairblog1.jpg

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This one from Daniel Finkelstein in the Time's brilliantly funny:

Quote:

It all sounds familiar

Splits, resignations, media frenzy, calls for a new leader. It all sounds incredibly familiar to someone who has worked for John Major and William Hague. So I thought my Blairite friends in Downing Street and elsewhere might enjoy the benefit of my experience:

1. You will be tempted to call for unity. Calls for unity never work.

2. You are quite right, you are surrounded by nutters. But the funny thing about nutters is that they don't appreciate being called mad. Don't bother, therefore, attacking your internal opponents.

3. You were quite wrong. Things can't only get better.

4. Every cunning plan you dream up for diverting the news agenda will fail. Don't think that getting Margaret Beckett to make a speech on CAP reform will move your splits down the news.

5. There is nothing you can do. Nothing. And therefore the best thing you can do is.....

6. Nothing. The only card the Prime Minister still has is incumbency. He should keep his head down, keep his mouth shut, and keep going. This will fail to work, but do so less spectacularly than anything else. Oh and.....

7. Don't write anything down.

Posted by Daniel Finkelstein on Wednesday, 06 September 2006 at 03:26 PM

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Steve 41oo wrote:

A number of MPs and junior ministers have signed a letter calling for Blair to go now, but Blair has not sacked them. Now one of them Tom Watson, has "resigned".

Hmm, hmm.. the quotation marks around the "resigned" are correct..

In his own resignation letter, Watson explains how it happened:

Tom Watson wrote:

As you know, I had a conversation with the chief whip last night, in which she asked me to withdraw my support from the 2001 intake's letter calling on you to stand down, or my position would be untenable as a government minister.

I have reflected on this overnight. I cannot withdraw my name, and therefore I accept her judgement.

Full text of Tom Watson's letter

His letter is admirably plainspoken, at least relative to the standards of this Blairite age, by the way.

The impression you get is of someone who truly believed in the Labour Party-make 2; that is, one of that rare breed of New Labourites-by-conviction. The sheer naivity he expresses in his dreamlike impressions of how

Tom Watson wrote:

"We have revolutionised the lives and expectations of millions of our citizens, combining social justice with prosperity in a way which is unprecedented in the history of our country"

(take that, Clement Attlee), is daft to the point of being kind of endearing. You certainly have to feel for a life so well wasted when he points out that

Tom Watson wrote:

The Labour party has been my life since I was 15 years old. [..] The struggle to fashion the kind of credible, convincing, effective Labour party you now lead has been the preoccupation of my adult years.

Yet when addressing the PM he is surprisingly straightforward:

Tom Watson wrote:

So it is with the greatest sadness that I have to say that I no longer believe that your remaining in office is in the interest of either the party or the country.

How and why this situation has arisen no longer matters.

I share the view of the overwhelming majority of the party and the country that the only way the party and the government can renew itself in office is urgently to renew its leadership.

His letter, moreover, refrains from most any dig, which speaks for Watson though it reduces its entertainment value. There's just the one, which obliquely but snidely refers to Blair's well-known obsession with his (personal) "legacy":

Tom Watson wrote:

For the sake of the legacy you have long said is the only one that matters - a renewed Labour party re-elected at the next general election - I urge you to reconsider your determination to remain in office.

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Tony Blair's letter in response, on the other hand, is a different beast.

Full text: Tony Blair's letter to Tom Watson

It is brief and business-like, like that of a manager to an underling, though the first lines strikes a surprising "couple therapy" note:

Tony Blair wrote:

Thank you for your letter. I am sorry it has come to this.

He follows up with the husband lingo of "I also accept entirely that you are entitled to your view", too.

(This reminds me of an analysis I read in an English paper several years ago, when Blair fatigue first set in, and when he made a series of visits and speeches to get 'back in touch' with the ordinary people and their concerns. The analysis was that he consistently used language that suggested he saw (or wanted to portray) the budding alienation in the terms that one would reflect on marriage trouble with. The shine is gone, the magic has rubbed off, I know you've become a bit bored or tired of me, but I will listen, we just have to communicate better, and we can still make it work, together - that kind of thing. The commentator then already remarked that this perspective suggested a certain oblivion to the possibility that those alienated (Labour) voters simply, actually disagreed with him over policy. That on an aside.)

Enough with the therapeutical though; the letter gets down to business quickly, in a rather lecturing manner:

Tony Blair wrote:

But as you will know from the long years of opposition we have endured, Labour only came to power after putting behind it the divisive behaviour of the past [..]. The way to renew and win again now is not to engage in a divisive - and since I have already made it clear I will be leaving before the election - totally unnecessary attempt to unseat the party leader [..].

There. Dont think that a junior minister like you - or a majority of the MPs that were elected in 2001 for that matter - can make me even pause to think. I am the leader. If all of you ADHD-afflicted deviationist MP's would just listen to me, everything would be fine. I dont understand what you're going on about, in any case.

That strikes a Nero-like tone in itself. But Blair only shows his self-confident rigidity up for real in the last, uncompromising paragraph. While Watson simply said: I dont believe you should lead the party - end; Blair can not refrain from going off at his addressee:

Tony Blair wrote:

To put all this at risk in this way is simply not a sensible, mature or intelligent way of conducting ourselves if we want to remain a governing party.

Ie, Tom Watson is not sensible, mature, or intelligent. There.

But dont hold back, Mr Prime Minister - tell us - or rather, the press - what you really feel about Watson's err, "resignation":

The Guardian wrote:

The PM hit back at the junior minister, calling him "disloyal, discourteous and wrong" for having signed the letter.

In a statement, he said: "I had been intending to dismiss him, but wanted to extend to him the courtesy of speaking to him first. [..]

"[T]o sign a round robin letter which was then leaked to the press was disloyal, discourteous and wrong. It would therefore have been impossible for him to remain in government."

(The Guardian: Blair faces crisis over resignations)

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Two of today's frontpages:

The Guardian

Daily Telegraph

---------------------------

What happened when, as presented in The Guardian on page 3:

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Blood in the water, the sharks are circling.

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4th of May it will be, three days after Tony notches up 10 years in power.

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Very senior member of the party whose name dammit I have just forgotten, is reported as saying "Its 50/50 that Blair might just walk away and take everyone by surprise".

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Having Gordon in power will probably seal the victory for Cameron at the next General election, unless the formidable Labour spin machine can bring down the tories a few notches by then.

The "baby boomers" - people who are now in their 50's and early 60's, make up a very large portion of the electorate, and the majority of those are very unhappy with the way that Gordon has raided pension funds, and with his many and varied "stealth" taxes.

From what I can see, Gordon's not too popular at the moment. He's clever with figures, but too devious by half.

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Lord Ellpus wrote:

The trouble is, Walter, that the group of MP's asking him to quit, are mainly made up from individuals who are an even bigger w*anker than HE is!

Nowadays, Labour is viewed in the UK, IMO, as nothing more than a group of tax grabbing, self seeking spin merchants who have totally lost the plot.

...and I was a firm Labour supporter up until recently!

So, I'm wondering, where does your average left voter go now? Who do you vote for if you can't bring yourself to vote for the Labour Party these days?

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I don't really know, msolga.

IMO, Alistair Campbell (Blair's original spin merchant and bulldog) thoroughly ruined it all, for me anyway.

I, like millions of other people, genuinely believed that Blair was going to make some wonderful changes and be a truly great Prime Minister.

I now feel totally betrayed, and am a major cynic now, as far as politics go.

They have "Americanised" British politics, and it is now all about dirty tricks campaigns, skewed figures and "key phrases", "bullet headlines", "soundbites" and other such crap.
Basically, they are con men, I suppose.

British politics has always had this going on, but New Labour made it an art form.

I think they should include a "none of the above" option, on the ballot paper.

.....We'll probably do what we normally do....kick out the left, bring in the right.......and then vice versa, for the next decade or so.

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Ellpus wrote:

They have "Americanised" British politics, and it is now all about dirty tricks campaigns, skewed figures and "key phrases", "bullet headlines", "soundbites" and other such crap.
Basically, they are con men, I suppose.

It is a terribly depressing thing.

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It's all YOUR fault, Gus.

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Why did nobody mention THAT before?

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I will accept full blame. It is the least I can do.

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Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to our Gustav.

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The other thing that is going to be big (already is, but it will crank up at the election) is the immigration/multiculturalism issue(s).

Over the past ten years, the perception is that New Labour has made an absolute balls up re.controlling and monitoring the flow of people coming into this country, either legally or illegally.
They have pushed and pushed for the multiculturalist agenda, resulting in large areas of London and other cities resembling pockets of various foreign countries.
I wouldn't go as far as Trevor Phillips (head of the CRE - Commision for Racial Equality....he is black British, and totally against multiculturalism by the way) in saying that they are basically ghettos, but it's not far off that scenario.
The idea that anyone who comes here should be greatly encouraged to become "British first", was attacked from day one by Labour, as being racist.
In very recent weeks, they have now changed their tune and have admitted that multiculturalism has been a disaster, leading to strife within neighbouring communites, and a sort of "segregation".

Too late was the cry, as far as I am concerned. I think that there are many, many Brits who also feel the same way. I don't think that people mind too much (in fact, I welcome it) if a reasonable flow of people are allowed into Britain if they come here wanting to adopt the British way of life, but this hasn't been the case at all.

The numbers coming in have been horrendous (the Government basically has no idea how many have actually arrived), but one thing is becoming clear.... it's waaaay above what they were telling us, only a year or so ago.

This is going to be a major issue come the next election........

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<sigh> I know how you must feel, Ellpus. Though it was a Liberal (conservative) government that dragged Australians (kicking & screaming) into Iraq (& other horrors) the Labor Party has not exactly made case for a principled alternative position. There are many issues of conscience where there isn't that much difference at all between the two parties. They are just different hues of the right, really. (The glaring difference is industrial relations.) But how much worse that it was the Labour Party that aligned the UK with Bushco! You wonder how long, if it's possible even, for party members (& left-leaning voters) to recover from this. What this must have done to the left is terrible to think about. Blair must be utterly loathed by so many within his own party. Trouble is, they loath the conservatives, too. Where do these voters go? I suspect some (and I hope I'm wrong here) might just give up on political involvement altogether, in their disillusionment. And that would be very sad indeed for the left & for UK politics. Tony Blair has a lot to answer for.

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Blair is still very popular in the country as a whole. The Labour party in office has many achievements to its name, and if you give me a few minutes I'll think of an example Wink

Its easy to get despondent when you look at Blair and Brown arguing, but dont forget those two + Peter Mandleson were the architects of New Labour, and believe it or not, there is substance to it, its not all just spin. If it was why have the Conservatives quietly adopted most of Labour's public service proposals.

The fact is Labour has won a very important battle. The Conservatives used to promise tax cuts (significant for the rich, but not the majority) and allow public services to be run on a shoe string. Now they say health and education must come before any tax cuts (some of course like John Redwood say they can do both, financed out of growth). But put to the people there is a clear answer, given choice they prefer decent public services if necessary financed by a small rise in tax. Thats the hard lesson the Conservatives are only now learning.

Labour may be struggling in the polls and sure its worrying but who's to say a new leader not directly associated with unpopular foreign policy issues cant build on the solid foundation Blair built?

Oh and the Labour achievements? Peace in Ireland....sort of at least its shouting not killing. National minimum wage...the Cons said it would cause unemployment...in fact EMployment has never been higher. Public finances in a good state. Remember interest rates at 14%...inflation at 10%? When was the last time anyone got excited about inflation? Free entrance to museums...(ok limite interest there Smile

). Considerable help for poorer pensioners. Record number of new business start ups. Better school results. Massive investment in hospital and school rebuilding. Devolution for Scotland Wales and (eventually N Ireland). Winter fuel payments to pensioners. (Mrs Thatcher told them to wear a vest...then increased VAT on clothing). Not forgetting winning the Ashes and the World Cup...will leave it there

Really on the domestic front Labour has a record to be proud of. Blair's fundamental mistake imo was in foreign policy, in particular making an unbreakable vow of loyalty to the neocon PNAC Likudnik fanatics in the United States...and he did this well before Bush came on the scene btw, in the days of Clinton. (And he did it for a very good reason, which I'm not going into right now).

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The beginning of the end? (For Tony Blair)

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