The beginning of the end? (For Tony Blair)

I hope you are not suggesting that his death was anything other than suicide. One of the Establishment's most trusty law lords, with many years experience of difficult cases in N Ireland, often having to cope with allegations of collusion between security forces and paramilitary groups, has pronounced that it was suicide and that "no third party was involved".

Now you might well say, how about a second party then? To which I say the fact that the body was moved after death and before discovery, that two figures were spotted nearby and not called to give evidence, that several pathologists have said in their view it was not possible to lose enough blood from a cut to one wrist to kill, that the level of paracetamol in the blood was anything but lethal, that Kelly's email to Miller betrayed no sign of suicidal thoughts, that a woman shouted out from the back of the courtroom that he had been murdered, that he left no suicide note, that on his walk in the woods, moments before he died he greeted a woman he knew in a perfectly normal manner....HAS GOT NOTHING TO DO WITH IT.

And of course the enquiry obviates the need for any inquest.

Next!

No question it was a momentous day yesterday. First time in 8 years that Blair has been defeated. And he went out of his way to lay his authority on the line. He even let Clarke suggest a compromise might be offered, then withdrew it.

Blair ordered Brown back from Israel. Reid back from Washington, Straw back from Moscow to vote IN PERSON.

And again he was very good in the House. How could anyone argue against his logic?...this was a matter of national security. The police who are charged with keeping us safe say they need 90 days. Surely the whole house of commons has a duty to support the police and security professionals! This is no trivial matter, Blair said, there is a new and terrifying threat to all our lives. You must trust those who have responsibility for these matters...those voting against 90 days are playing politics with the nation's security.

And the answer?...a very clear **** you Tony! Quite incredible, I cant think of anything quite like it. Government chief whip Hazel Blears nearly in tears.

But then TB is no fool.

And now in the cold light of day I listen to a phone in. Prospective Conservative leader David Davis is excoriated by several callers. "I will never vote Tory again after what they did last night".

And what happens if (God forbid) there are further bombs (as we are told is inevitable)? Before anyone dare say

"You know if we had not gone into Iraq and stirred up al Qaeda with their supporters in Bradford and Leeds....PERHAPS we might not be subjected to this."

Blair will be able to say (although he will quietly allow it to be said on his behalf)

"Not Tony Blair or the Government's fault...IF ONLY the police were given the powers they said were necessary....its the Tories fault and those who voted against 90 days" (Complete bollocks of course but the public will lap it up)

Tony Blair has taken a kicking to his authority. But he's covered his ass when the next terror outrage strikes in the UK. I told you he's a clever boy.

Clever boy indeed, Steve. He knows that the end is nigh, and is trying to be remembered as the "Oh wise one" that foresaw the future, but was tossed aside by the ungrateful masses.


A view from the tory sympathising Daily mail......


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=368187&in_page_id=1770&ct=5

......and one from the Blair supporting "Sun".

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2005520275,00.html

Oh how I long for the return of the daily newspapers reporting factual news, without riddling their diatribes with biased comment.

One of the most powerful arguments against the 90-day request was/ is that it would be counter-productive, that it would radicalise more muslims than it exposed potential terrorists.

Which I think is correct.

Well done, mother of parliaments (sorry, Iceland)

From the Mail

"His fatal mistake was to defy advice from his whips that he would lose. "

Now why on earth would he do that?

(Government Chief Whip is Hilary Armstrong not Hazel Blears as I incorrectly posted above)

Blair looked shell shocked when the result was announced. But Blair can do shell shock as well as any professional.

I dont think the Sun can be accused of bias:-

Their dispassionate impartiality is self evident viz:-

Print the list off and stick it on your fridge as a reminder of the TRAITOR MPs who betrayed Britain.

The 49 Labour MPs who voted no were:

Ms Diane Abbott (Hackney North & Stoke Newington)
John Austin (Erith & Thamesmead)
Richard Burden (Birmingham Northfield)
Michael Clapham (Barnsley West & Penistone)
Katy Clark (Ayrshire North and Arran)
Harry Cohen (Leyton & Wanstead)
Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North)
Jim Cousins (Newcastle upon Tyne Central)
Ms Ann Cryer (Keighley)
Frank Dobson (Holborn & St Pancras)
Mrs Gwyneth Dunwoody (Crewe & Nantwich)
Mark Fisher (Stoke-on-Trent Central)
Paul Flynn (Newport West)
Neil Gerrard (Walthamstow)
Dr Ian Gibson (Norwich North)
Roger Godsiff (Birmingham Sparkbrook & Small Heath)
John Grogan (Selby)
David Hamilton (Midlothian)
Doug Henderson (Newcastle upon Tyne North)
Ms Kate Hoey (Vauxhall)
Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North)
Ms Glenda Jackson (Hampstead & Highgate)
Sian James (Swansea East)
Dr Lynne Jones (Birmingham Selly Oak)
Sadiq Khan (Tooting)
Peter Kilfoyle (Liverpool Walton)
Mark Lazarowicz (Edinburgh North & Leith)
Tony Lloyd (Manchester Central)
Andy Love (Edmonton)
Mrs Chris McCafferty (Calder Valley)
John McDonnell (Hayes & Harlington)
Robert Marshall-Andrews (Medway)
Michael Meacher (Oldham West & Royton)
Ms Julie Morgan (Cardiff North)
George Mudie (Leeds East)
Chris Mullin (Sunderland South)
Gordon Prentice (Pendle)
Nick Raynsford (Greenwich & Woolwich)
Linda Riordan (Halifax)
Ms Clare Short (Birmingham Ladywood)
Alan Simpson (Nottingham South)
Dennis Skinner (Bolsover)
Sir Peter Soulsby (Leicester South)
David Taylor (Leicestershire North West)
Emily Thornberry (Islington South & Finsbury)
Jon Trickett (Hemsworth)
Robert Wareing (Liverpool West Derby)
David Winnick (Walsall North)
Mike Wood (Batley & Spen)

The Tory MPs who voted against 90-day detention were:

Adam Afriyie (Windsor)
Peter Ainsworth (Surrey East)
David Amess (Southend West)
Michael Ancram (Devizes)
James Arbuthnot (Hampshire North East)
Richard Bacon (Norfolk South)
Gregory Barker (Bexhill & Battle)
John Baron (Billericay)
Henry Bellingham (Norfolk North West)
Richard Benyon (Newbury)
John Bercow (Buckingham)
Sir Paul Beresford (Mole Valley)
Brian Binley (Northampton South)
Peter Bone (Wellingborough)
Tim Boswell (Daventry)
Peter Bottomley (Worthing West)
Graham Brady (Altrincham & Sale West)
Julian Brazier (Canterbury)
James Brokenshire (Hornchurch)
Mrs Angela Browning (Tiverton & Honiton)
Simon Burns (Chelmsford West)
David Burrowes (Enfield Southgate)
Alistair Burt (Bedfordshire North East)
Sir John Butterfill (Bournemouth West)
David Cameron (Witney)
Douglas Carswell (Harwich)
William Cash (Stone)
Christopher Chope (Christchurch)
James Clappison (Hertsmere)
Greg Clark (Tunbridge Wells)
Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe)
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (Cotswold)
Derek Conway (Old Bexley & Sidcup)
Sir Patrick Cormack (Staffordshire South)
Geoffrey Cox (Torridge & West Devon)
Stephen Crabb (Preseli Pembrokeshire)
David Curry (Skipton & Ripon)
David TC Davies (Monmouth)
Philip Davies (Shipley)
Quentin Davies (Grantham & Stamford)
David Davis (Haltemprice & Howden)
Jonathan Djanogly (Huntingdon)
Stephen Dorrell (Charnwood)
Mrs Nadine Dorries (Bedfordshire Mid)
James Duddridge (Rochford & Southend East)
Alan Duncan (Rutland & Melton)
Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford & Woodford Green)
Philip Dunne (Ludlow)
Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East)
Nigel Evans (Ribble Valley)
David Evennett (Bexleyheath & Crayford)
Michael Fabricant (Lichfield)
Michael Fallon (Sevenoaks)
Mark Field (Cities of London & Westminster)
Dr Liam Fox (Woodspring)
Mark Francois (Rayleigh)
Christopher Fraser (Norfolk South West)
Roger Gale (Thanet North)
Edward Garnier (Harborough)
David Gauke (Hertfordshire South West)
Nick Gibb (Bognor Regis & Littlehampton)
Mrs Cheryl Gillan (Chesham & Amersham)
Paul Goodman (Wycombe)
Robert Goodwill (Scarborough & Whitby)
Michael Gove (Surrey Heath)
James Gray (Wiltshire North)
Chris Grayling (Epsom & Ewell)
Damian Green (Ashford)
Ms Justine Greening (Putney)
John Greenway (Ryedale)
Dominic Grieve (Beaconsfield)
John Gummer (Suffolk Coastal)
William Hague (Richmond (Yorks)
Philip Hammond (Runnymede & Weybridge)
Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon)
Greg Hands (Hammersmith & Fulham)
Mark Harper (Forest of Dean)
John Hayes (South Holland & The Deepings)
Oliver Heald (Hertfordshire North East)
David Heathcoat-Amory (Wells)
Charles Hendry (Wealden)
Nick Herbert (Arundel & South Downs)
Mark Hoban (Fareham)
Douglas Hogg (Sleaford & North Hykeham)
Philip Hollobone (Kettering)
Adam Holloway (Gravesham)
John Horam (Orpington)
Michael Howard (Folkestone & Hythe)
Gerald Howarth (Aldershot)
Jeremy Hunt (Surrey South West)
Nick Hurd (Ruislip - Northwood)
Michael Jack (Fylde)
Stewart Jackson (Peterborough)
Bernard Jenkin (Essex North)
Boris Johnson (Henley)
David Jones (Clwyd West)
Daniel Kawczynski (Shrewsbury & Atcham)
Robert Key (Salisbury)
Miss Julie Kirkbride (Bromsgrove)
Greg Knight (Yorkshire East)
Mrs Eleanor Laing (Epping Forest)
Mrs Jacqui Lait (Beckenham)
Mark Lancaster (Milton Keynes North East)
Andrew Lansley (Cambridgeshire South)
Edward Leigh (Gainsborough)
Oliver Letwin (Dorset West)
Dr Julian Lewis (New Forest East)
Ian Liddell-Grainger (Bridgwater)
David Lidington (Aylesbury)
Peter Lilley (Hitchin & Harpenden)
Tim Loughton (Worthing East & Shoreham)
Peter Luff (Worcestershire Mid)
Miss Anne McIntosh (Vale of York)
Andrew Mackay (Bracknell)
David Maclean (Penrith & The Border)
Patrick McLoughlin (Derbyshire West)
Anne Main (St Albans)
Humfrey Malins (Woking)
John Maples (Stratford-on-Avon)
Francis Maude (Horsham)
Mrs Theresa May (Maidenhead)
Patrick Mercer (Newark)
Maria Miller (Basingstoke)
Anne Milton (Guildford)
Andrew Mitchell (Sutton Coldfield)
Malcolm Moss (Cambridgeshire North East)
David Mundell (Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale)
Dr Andrew Murrison (Westbury)
Brooks Newmark (Braintree)
Stephen O'Brien (Eddisbury)
George Osborne (Tatton)
Richard Ottaway (Croydon South)
James Paice (Cambridgeshire South East)
Owen Paterson (Shropshire North)
Andrew Pelling (Croydon Central)
Michael Penning (Hemel Hempstead)
John Penrose (Weston-Super-Mare)
Eric Pickles (Brentwood & Ongar)
Mark Prisk (Hertford & Stortford)
Mark Pritchard (The Wrekin)
John Randall (Uxbridge)
John Redwood (Wokingham)
Sir Malcolm Rifkind (Kensington & Chelsea)
Andrew Robathan (Blaby)
Hugh Robertson (Faversham & Kent Mid)
Laurence Robertson (Tewkesbury)
Andrew Rosindell (Romford)
David Ruffley (Bury St Edmunds)
Lee Scott (Ilford North)
Andrew Selous (Bedfordshire South West)
Grant Shapps (Welwyn Hatfield)
Richard Shepherd (Aldridge-Brownhills)
Mark Simmonds (Boston & Skegness)
Keith Simpson (Norfolk Mid)
Mrs Caroline Spelman (Meriden)
Sir Michael Spicer (Worcestershire West)
Bob Spink (Castle Point)
Richard Spring (Suffolk West)
Anthony Steen (Totnes)
Gary Streeter (Devon South West)
Graham Stuart (Beverley & Holderness)
Desmond Swayne (New Forest West)
Hugo Swire (Devon East)
Robert Syms (Poole)
Ian Taylor (Esher & Walton)
David Tredinnick (Bosworth)
Andrew Turner (Isle of Wight)
Andrew Tyrie (Chichester)
Edward Vaizey (Wantage)
Shailesh Vara (Cambridgeshire North West)
Peter Viggers (Gosport)
Mrs Theresa Villiers (Chipping Barnet)
Charles Walker (Broxbourne)
Ben Wallace (Lancaster & Wyre)
Robert Walter (Dorset North)
Nigel Waterson (Eastbourne)
Mrs Angela Watkinson (Upminster)
John Whittingdale (Maldon & Chelmsford East)
Bill Wiggin (Leominster)
David Willetts (Havant)
David Wilshire (Spelthorne)
Rob Wilson (Reading East)
Mrs Ann Winterton (Congleton)
Sir Nicholas Winterton (Macclesfield)
Jeremy Wright (Rugby & Kenilworth)
Tim Yeo (Suffolk South)
Sir George Young (Hampshire North West)

All 62 Liberal Democrats voted against 90 day detention.
They are:

Danny Alexander (Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey)
Norman Baker (Lewes)
John Barrett (Edinburgh West)
Alan Beith (Berwick-upon-Tweed)
Tom Brake (Carshalton & Wallington)
Colin Breed (Cornwall South East)
Ms Annette Brooke (Dorset Mid & Poole North)
Jeremy Browne (Taunton)
Malcolm Bruce (Gordon)
Paul Burstow (Sutton & Cheam)
Mrs Lorely Burt (Solihull)
Dr Vincent Cable (Twickenham)
Sir Menzies Campbell (Fife North East)
Alistair Carmichael (Orkney & Shetland)
Nicholas Clegg (Sheffield Hallam)
Edward Davey (Kingston & Surbiton)
Tim Farron (Westmorland & Lonsdale)
Lynne Featherstone (Hornsey & Wood Green)
Don Foster (Bath)
Andrew George (St Ives)
Mrs Sandra Gidley (Romsey)
Julia Goldsworthy (Falmouth & Camborne)
Mike Hancock (Portsmouth South)
Dr Evan Harris (Oxford West & Abingdon)
Nick Harvey (Devon North)
David Heath (Somerton & Frome)
John Hemming (Birmingham Yardley)
Paul Holmes (Chesterfield)
Martin Horwood (Cheltenham)
David Howarth (Cambridge)
Simon Hughes (Southwark North & Bermondsey)
Chris Huhne (Eastleigh)
Mark Hunter (Cheadle)
Paul Keetch (Hereford)
Charles Kennedy (Ross, Skye & Lochaber)
Susan Kramer (Richmond Park)
Norman Lamb (Norfolk North)
David Laws (Yeovil)
John Leech (Manchester Withington)
Michael Moore (Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk)
Greg Mulholland (Leeds North West)
Mark Oaten (Winchester)
Lembit Opik (Montgomeryshire)
John Pugh (Southport)
Alan Reid (Argyll & Bute)
Dan Rogerson (Cornwall North)
Paul Rowen (Rochdale)
Bob Russell (Colchester)
Adrian Sanders (Torbay)
Sir Robert Smith (Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine)
Andrew Stunell (Hazel Grove)
Jo Swinson (East Dunbartonshire)
Matthew Taylor (Truro & St Austell)
Sarah Teather (Brent East)
John Thurso (Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross)
Steve Webb (Northavon)
Mark Williams (Ceredigion)
Roger Williams (Brecon & Radnorshire)
Stephen Williams (Bristol West)
Phil Willis (Harrogate & Knaresborough)
Ms Jenny Willott (Cardiff Central)
Richard Younger-Ross (Teignbridge)

If anyone is wondering how Tony was re-relected in 2005, I will now state the case as clearly as possible.

The general election presented the voters with a simple choice: whether to vote for a party that believed the private sector should be used to solve the problems of the public sector, or a party that believed the same thing: whether to vote for a party that promised to clamp down on immigration, or one that said it already had: or whether to vote for a Prime Minister who committed the country to an unlawful war in Iraq, or an opposition that supported him.

The result was quite British in the end. Labour did quite well, but not very well; the Conservatives did quite well, but not very well. On the other hand, the Liberal Democrats did quite well, but not very well.

There you have it in a nutshell.

NB....Labour received the support of just 22% of the total electorate, the lowest share of the vote achieved by the winning party for over fifty years.

I hope that this clears up any confusion.

Been posting too much already this morning

First Thatcher. No. No coalition. Our simple first passed the post system tends to give clear majorities for one side or the other. The conservatives of her day always had good working majorities, although cant remember exact figures of her '79 '83 and '87 administrations.

(As I'm sure you know the way it works in the UK is that the party with an absolute majority over all the other parties forms the government. In theory govt only has to have a majority of one. Then if all govt. mps vote as ordered (by so called 3 line whip) the govt will win and govt bills will pass. Of course its not so simple in practice as some issues entice rebel mps to defy the whip and vote with the oppostion, as happened last night. Such rebels are threatened with all sorts of sanction by the whips, not least being shot. But they still do it so a comfortable working majority would be probably 40 mps. Blair's is currently 66 (down from 166 last parliament). That's why to lose yesterday's vote, on a substantive matter, where the pms authority is on the line was so significant.)

You probably recall some of the dramatic events surrounding the Fall of Thatcher. But the comparison with Blair is not really valid. Dont forget we had 7 years of John Major after Mrs T. People here are making more of a comparison between Blair's current predicament and the lamentable state of the Major govt in its final days. Major of course was Conservative. But it is worth recounting how those events worked out.

After winning the Falklands war against Argentina (3:1) the victorious England team returned home and directed their attentions on the Enemy within, who turned out to be the coal miners. Thatcher roundly defeated them too, and went on to win a third term. Having nearly wiped the stain of socialism from the sacred flag of freedom (for the rich) Mrs T did indeed suffer from what can only realistically be described as raving egomania. Or mad cow disease as we called it. Some of her ideas really were mad. The poll tax was one such, culminating in nationwide riots and of course the wonderful battle of Trafalgar Square. Which convinced many who were not sure, that Thatcher really had lost it.

It became clear to many Tory mps, that their nice little jobs of being mps, getting well paid, doing very little and belonging to the best club in the world aka the House of Commons, might be under threat at the next election, and began to wonder if a somewhat more amenable Prime Minister might secure victory for them. When Mrs T sacked her Foreign Secretary Geoffrey Howe, he made a blistering resignation speech which can be summarised as

She's gone barking mad
If we dont get rid of her, the people will get rid of us.

thus setting in motion the electoral wheels within the conservative party which resulted in her down fall, and the selection of John Major as PM.

Note this was all done in 1990 without a general election or consultation even of Conservative party members. Just a few Conservative mps decided they'd had enough of the old bag, and thought Major a better bet. Quite outrageous really. (Suppose a few republicans got together and said enough of GWB he's a fool. Karl Rove is president until next election).

The problem for the conservatives was that for the next decade at least, they never forgave themselves for stabbing Thatcher in the back. And Mrs T was still around to ensure they felt suitably guilty, and never elected anyone or did anything which she did not approve of.

Anyway John Major was supposed to give the Conservatives the fresh face to enable them to stay in power for ever. And it worked very well at first. Much to everyone's surprise, the Conservatives won again in 1992, but with a much reduced majority. Meanwhile power corrupts as we all know, and the Conservatives had been in power for a long time. They became greedy and corrupt. (actually taking bribes for asking questions in parliament). The Labour party under new young dynamic Blair (and extremely competent back room staff) had a field day. New Labour was born and successfully captured the middle ground of British politics. They stole the ground from under the Conservative's feet without them ever realising. The party sensibly dropped a lot of out dated and out moded stuff that tied it to policies more appropriate to the mass proletarian party of the 1930's (e.g. any reference to socialism) and never looked back. Until 16.56 yesterday.

Blair won a stunning victory in 1997 (and I won a substantial bet) with 179 majority 2001 167? majority and again 2005 66 majority.

Major struggled with a small majority, with his so called Eurosceptic rebels, and with Margaret Thatcher glowering in the background. By 1997, it was a blessed relief for the Tories to be put out of their misery.

Blairs problem by contrast is entirely of his own making. Despite his magnificent gifts as orator actor lawyer salesman and politican and all round good guy family man, people actually do object about being conned into a war in Iraq.

Secondly he said he would not stand for a 4th time. So that means Gordon Brown (almost certainly will be next pm). So ambitious young politicos are lining things up and looking to the future. Blair has already said he is going, its just a question of now, soon or in a bit...and whether he goes gracefully or allows himself to be cornered and disembowelled.

He's much too clever for the latter. But on the other hand now the rebels have a taste for blood they might do something similar for education and health service reforms...if that happened then Blair really would have to go imo. Apologies for long post.

a joke

Mrs Thatcher takes her cabinet out to dinner. Head waiter come up and asks what she wants.

"Rump steak...rare"

"And the vegetables Madam?"

"They'll have the same as me".

Nice one, Steve.

Nice one, Steve.

What the bloody hell is happening today??

First off, I couldn't post ANYTHING for a while, as it kept telling me that my "new word match" couldn't be found, and then it posts a duplicate posting, a long while after I had thrown the PC out of the third floor window and bought a new one. (I didn't really)



AAAAAAARGH!



A stiff brandy is called for, methinks.

same here, same here. i'll have scotch on the rocks though.

Oh please oh please, if there is a God, remove Blair from my sight. Enough is a enough.
Tony, pick up thy blanket & walk.
Pleeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaase

Thanks for your detailed response, Steve . . . and thanks for a great Thatcher joke which i will repeat, and adapt to other politicos, and for which i will never give a whiff of credit . . .

Good wines for under £9 isn't that bad, I think, especially since Home Secretary Charles Clarke now has selflessly taken the blame for that large defeat.

As far as I followed the news, the Chabcellor has said, he won't going to replace the Prime Minister. But will this really be stop questions about Blair's authority? [I'm a bit like a burnt child here, since the German SPD leader recently resigned because he thaught he had lost authority.]

They're all trying to bale out the boat.
Cabinet members (front-benchers) all vocal on TV news this evening, all saying Mr Blair's authority was not affected. But it's not fooled the bookies, apparently, his chance of demise this year has now gone from 3-1 to 7-4.

I dont understand what the fuss is about.

28 days or 90 days nobody seriously believes it makes a scrap of difference in preventing terrorist attack do they?

BUT when the next bomb goes off Blair will be able to say "I wanted to give the police the powers they said they needed... you denied it to them...dont blame me for bombs in Manchester or London or Hemel Hempstead"

AND the Tories have made themselves look complete jerks in the eyes of the public.

FURTHERMORE the really important stuff on health and education reform might actually go through easier, because rebels realise if they vot against that stuff it really could be the end of PM Blair.

SO I think Mr Blair is looking wounded and feeling quite chipper.

That was the received wisdom in the Farmer's Arms tonight.
But I don't agree.