POLAND: Uncertain Steps Towards a New Government
PRAGUE, Oct 19 (IPS) - With this Sunday's early general elections, Poles will give a verdict on whether they approve of Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski's "Fourth Polish Republic", as the present term of government has been called.
Poland's election, the most important since 1989 (when Poland emerged from communist rule) in the Prime Minister's words, could put an end to the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) government that created a conflictive atmosphere both home and abroad.
Critics of the government's foreign policy have pointed to the disastrous tenure of foreign minister Anna Fotyga, under whom relations with the EU have seriously deteriorated as a result of disagreements over the European Union's (EU) constitution and Warsaw's homophobic, anti-abortion and pro-death penalty statements.
The latest polls give the liberal opposition Civic Platform (PO) 39 percent of the vote, ahead of the PiS with 34 percent and the Left & Democrats (LiD) with 15 percent.
The PiS won the previous 2005 elections vowing to put an end to corruption and crime in Poland, accusing leftists and liberal elites of being responsible for the decadence of the post-communist Third Polish Republic.
Kaczynski's Fourth Polish Republic project was meant to put an end to the supposed mismanagement of Poland's elites, and bring a purification of public life by purging it of communist and corrupt elements.
"The main discussion is precisely around the support or lack of it for the Fourth Polish Republic," Bartosz Weglarczyk, a journalist from the Polish daily Gazeta Wyborcza told IPS. "It's basically a referendum."
The Sejm (Polish Parliament) was dissolved Sep. 7 following irreconcilable conflicts within the governing coalition of the majority Law and Justice and the two junior governing Self-Defence (SD) and League of Polish Families (LPF).
The conflicts were spurred by accusations of corruption levelled against SD populist leader Andrzej Lepper by government circles.
Many observers claimed the move to be political, arguing that the Prime Minister intended to conquer both the deputies and voters of his smaller coalition partners.
The move partially backfired as Kaczynski was forced to call an early vote. However, neither LPF nor SD is likely to make it into parliament, indicating that its voters will support Kaczynski in the Oct. 21 vote.
As in 2005, the theme of corruption is ubiquitous, with Kaczynski warning of the danger posed by a return to previous practices, while the opposition accuses him of using the fight against corruption for political ends.
Together with much of the press, opposition politicians accuse the Kaczynski government of selectively choosing the victims of its anti-corruption programme, which relies more on spectacular actions than on actual facts and court verdicts.
Law and Justice officials are accused by critics of abusing their dominant position in public media, law enforcement and intelligence agencies with a view to obtaining re-election.
PO leader Donald Tusk, confident of his party's victory, has promised to set up investigative commissions as soon as he is elected to look into the current government's actions.
Yet the recurrence of the corruption theme only proves that it is Law and Justice that is setting the tone of the campaign. "They are running the most professional campaign since 1989, they run it the way they want, setting the subjects of discussion," Weglarczyk told IPS.
Social scientists have described liberal voters as young city dwellers and people with a higher education, in contrast to PiS voters who are believed to be poorer, uneducated, dissatisfied with the results of post-communist transition and exhibiting authoritarian leanings.
While the opposition labels the current cabinet as the worst in post-communist Poland, average citizens notice a 6.5 percent rate of economic growth, and falling unemployment, which various economic experts thank EU membership for.
The opposition liberals have spoken in favour of introducing a flat tax which will lower both personal and corporate tax to 15 percent. The government also favours lower taxes but is unwilling to curb social spending, whereas the left is against lowering taxes.
In spite of the liberals' narrow advantage, polls indicate that probably no party will manage to govern independently, making the negotiation of coalition arrangements imperative for all leading political forces.
A key role might be played by the relatively small but neutral Polish Peasants Party (PSL) which is allegedly willing to join forces with either left or right if it makes it into parliament.
If the PSL's support is insufficient, the PO liberals and Law and Justice could consider a coalition, though the latter's intimidation of political rivals has made other parties wary of joining forces with Kaczynski's men.
The liberals' second option would be an alliance with the leftists of the LiD, though this option is unpopular among many of the neo-liberal and anti-socialist politicians in the party.
LiD's politicians led the 2001-2005 government but were largely discredited as a result of corruption scandals. The renewed party is still perceived by voters as an ongoing but disoriented project.
Nonetheless, the party led by former president Aleksander Kwasniewski, who made a surprise political comeback citing concern over the state of the country's democracy, has recently enjoyed growing support.
The election could be determined by many of the undecided or less outspoken voters who remain undetected in opinion polls and tend to support either the left or the conservatives.
PiS can also count on its voters' discipline, contrasting sharply with growing abstention levels in mostly liberal cities, and on the support lent to it by the ultra-Catholic and influential Radio Maryja.
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