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SUSA's latest 50-state Bush poll

 
 
Reply Tue 18 Oct, 2005 01:39 pm
by kos
Tue Oct 18, 2005 at 12:21:37 PM PDT

I love this poll. 50 states of Bush numbers. The highlights?

Bush is above 50 percent in only six states -- Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, Nebraska and Oklahoma. Utah, at 61/36, is the only state above 60 percent. In May, Bush was above 50 percent in 13 states. In September, it was 10 states.

25 states are below 40 percent. Rhode Island, Vermont, and Massachusetts are all under 30 percent. Bush is 29/70 in Rhode Island.

Overall, Bush is at 38/59.

From the SUSA press release:

kos
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Type: Discussion • Score: 1 • Views: 1,267 • Replies: 28
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panzade
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Oct, 2005 01:55 pm
Unfortunately these statistics are from those literate enough to understand a poll
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timberlandko
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Oct, 2005 02:10 pm
panzade wrote:
Unfortunately these statistics are from those literate enough to understand a poll


You mean literate folks like this?

Quote:
Monday :: Oct 18, 2004
CBS Poll Calls Race A Tie - Survey USA Says Kerry Takes Lead In Florida, Moves Out Safely In Penn.; Within MOE In North Carolina


Survey USA reported new polls late today that show Kerry moving ahead of Bush in Florida by 1% after trailing by 5% less than two weeks ago. Just as good is the news that the Democrats are in position to hold on to Bob Graham?s Senate seat after all.

SUSA reports now that in Pennsylvania Kerry is now ahead by a growing margin of 6%, after being ahead by 4% less than two weeks ago. And Arlen Specter?s Senate seat is in play for the Democrats, as Joe Hoeffel has reduced a 19% deficit to only 7% in less than two weeks.

But get this: Kerry is now only 3% behind Bush in North Carolina, after the last SUSA poll had Bush with a 7% lead less than two weeks ago. Plus, Democrat Erskine Bowles is within the MOE of Richard Burr in an effort to keep John Edwards? Senate seat in Democratic hands.

And in a national poll out late today, the latest CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters shows Bush with a 1% lead over Kerry with leaners included. This margin is unchanged from previous CBS News and CBS News/NYT polls earlier this month, indicating that Gallup is full of crap and that Bush hasn?t the momentum that Gallup wants you to believe.

Face it folks, Gallup has become a piece of Karl Rove?s disinformation operation, and both CNN and the USAT are Rove?s mouthpieces. After this election is over, I am calling for a nationwide boycott of CNN, USAT, Gallup, and Chris Matthews.


Mr. Green
0 Replies
 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Oct, 2005 04:04 pm
So what. No matter what the poll numbers are the creep will still be the president of the US until 2008. It would seem the American electorate is as usual a day late and a pound short. Embarrassed
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kelticwizard
 
  1  
Reply Tue 18 Oct, 2005 08:02 pm
Timber:

Your article was dated Oct 18, 2004, for a poll that was compiled over a couple of days previous to that. Moreover, the last presidential debate was Oct 13, which generally causes a sway. So the numbers Survey USA might well have been accurate for that particualr date. Numbers change in the last two weeks of an election.

As for states, all I can say is that they tend to be more volatile than the country as a whole, sometimes changing 5% in a single weekend. So predicting the behavior of an individual state is difficult. But if you add up surveys of all the states together, a picture does emerge that is reasonably reliable.
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woiyo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 06:04 am
I do not care what "adults" think.

I care about what voters think.

Most adults do not vote.
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 06:49 am
It seems that people who voted for Bush now are regreting voting for Bush or maybe they just feel that no matter how much they don't like bush, they liked kerry even less. (personally I think that was illogicial but...)

I read an interesting article this morning that may give a clue as to whether Bush low poll numbers translate into less republican votes, or maybe not, it is hard to tell in elections until it is over.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/18/AR2005101801754.html


Quote:
A Washington Post poll of Virginia registered voters conducted Sept. 6 through 9 indicated some anger at the president; asked whether Bush's endorsement of Kilgore made them more likely to support him, less likely or had no effect, 45 percent said less likely, compared with 28 percent who said more likely. By comparison, 37 percent said Warner's endorsement of Kaine made them more likely to support the Democrat, compared with 27 percent who said less likely.

Mo Elleithee, communications director for the Kaine campaign, said that voters will decide on which candidate to support based on state issues and that their opinion of how Virginia is being run compared with the national government is a comparison that would help Democrats.

Jarding agreed. "Virginians seem to like the direction Warner took the state and they clearly don't think, according to polls, that President Bush is taking the country in the right direction," he said. "It could be a very small sliver of voters [that makes that analysis], but in a very close race, that could make a difference."
0 Replies
 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 07:37 am
How will Bush's approval rating, if it remains negative impact the 2006 congressional election?
Considering that all politics tend to be local.
0 Replies
 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 07:41 am
Void duplicate post
0 Replies
 
JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 08:37 am
au1929 wrote:
How will Bush's approval rating, if it remains negative impact the 2006 congressional election?
Considering that all politics tend to be local.


The Democrats will see little effect. There are too many radicals running the party and until (and unless) they can recruit more moderates who are willing to work with the Republicans, they'll stay near the bottom, making only marginal gains.
0 Replies
 
kelticwizard
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 08:43 am
JustWonders wrote:
The Democrats will see little effect. There are too many radicals running the party....


Too many radicals running the party my foot.

The Republicans put up a president whose major domestic policy is to cut the heart out of Social Security, and they complain that "radicals" are running the Democrats. Baloney.
0 Replies
 
JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 09:19 am
kelticwizard wrote:
JustWonders wrote:
The Democrats will see little effect. There are too many radicals running the party....


Too many radicals running the party my foot.

The Republicans put up a president whose major domestic policy is to cut the heart out of Social Security, and they complain that "radicals" are running the Democrats. Baloney.


KW - how do you explain Hillary's fake "move to the middle" strategy? Also....why do you think it has so angered the Kos / DU / Move-on crowd?

I'm amused that they'll attempt to torpedo her nomination, but at least she "gets it" (even while lying through her teeth LOL).
0 Replies
 
JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 09:23 am
[quote="kelticwizardThe Republicans put up a president whose major domestic policy is to cut the heart out of Social Security, and they complain that "radicals" are running the Democrats. Baloney.[/quote]

And the Democrats put up ... Dukakis, Gore and Kerry ... LOL!!!

'Nuff said Smile
0 Replies
 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 10:05 am
And the republicans put up Bush. Evil or Very Mad
0 Replies
 
JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 10:20 am
And Bush won. When the Democrats see fit to end their weeping and gnashing and examine the reasons why this occurred (instead of the endlessly boring screeching that the electorate is stupid) they might have a chance.

Until then, they'll continue to lose and that's fine with me.
0 Replies
 
au1929
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 10:34 am
JW
Do you think that daffy duck would win an election today? Even the politically ignorant electorate has finally realized what a failure this president and his presidency is.

They may even come to realize what a threat he poses to the concept of separation of church and state. Imagine the implication of his choosing a justice of the supreme court who only qualification is fealty to her religion.
0 Replies
 
JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 10:59 am
So your original question was rhetorical?
0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Oct, 2005 11:22 am
JW
I guess we will see after the Virginia election and after the 2006 election. Personally I think you are going to be unpleasantly surprised and I have not predicted a republican loss in years.

I think people are finally catching on and it's sticking. Probably they're thinking to themselves, "what were we thinking?"
0 Replies
 
real life
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Oct, 2005 12:23 am
au1929 wrote:
And the republicans put up Bush. Evil or Very Mad


Bush received 10 million more votes in 2004 than in 2000.

Close your eyes (ok they were already closed) and think about it for a minute.
0 Replies
 
goodfielder
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Oct, 2005 01:55 am
Question - in an electoral college system is it a matter of individual votes or is it a bloc of votes or states, for example, that sees the successful candidate elected?

My usual disclaimer applies here (when I am not being deliberately mischievous and I'm not doing that now) - this is not a bear trap. I am asking the question for a factual answer, this is not a rhetorical attack. That may come later - or it may not :wink:
0 Replies
 
 

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