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Putin's war

 
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 08:45 am
@Lash,
Doesn't bode well because Iran explicitly announced they all US bases in missile range and if anything happens Iran doesn't like they will attack all US bases.

When Iran discusses us, we discuss them. Maybe if you had listened to the entire broadcast, you wouldn't have bobbled this one so bad.
izzythepush
 
  2  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 08:47 am
@Walter Hinteler,
The news from Iran is quite good, certain dual nationals have been released and a historic debt has been settled.
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 08:51 am
@izzythepush,
The problem with Iran (after one gets past the theocracy part) is the ham-fisted political mosh pit that is the GOP.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  -1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 08:58 am
@bobsal u1553115,
Nothing was bobbled, bobbl.

I’m concerned about the fact I introduced. Big problems multiplying.
Lash
 
  -2  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 09:00 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Happy to have your belated agreement.
izzythepush
 
  1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 09:02 am
@bobsal u1553115,
The Fifth Fleet is stationed in Bahrain. Bahrain is a majority Shia country with a minority Sunni ruling class.

There is a huge amount of sympathy for Iran.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 09:02 am
@Lash,
If a broadcast gives you vapors, why watch Fox?

Just giving you the willies don't mean a thing.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 09:03 am
@Lash,
I don't think he said what you think he said.
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 09:24 am
What a Russia-Ukraine peace deal might look like

By Anthony Faiola
Columnist
Yesterday at 12:01 a.m. EDT

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/18/peace-deal-russia-ukraine-putin-negotiation/


With Russian troops bogged down in the fight against a defiant but battered Ukraine, both Moscow and Kyiv say the prospect of a negotiated settlement is growing. Yet, with the Kremlin seeking an end to Ukraine as a sovereign nation, and Ukraine still claiming land lost to pro-Russian forces almost a decade ago, can there really be a middle ground?

The short answer is: It’s possible.

Suspicion abounds over Russian President Vladimir Putin’s intentions, with considerable fears that a Russian diplomatic opening is a ruse to buy time to gather reinforcements for a second-phase assault. Putin is certainly not talking like a man of peace. This week, he called Russians who opposed the invasion “traitors” and “scum,” while seeking to portray the war as nothing short of a struggle for Russia’s survival.
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But with the tenacious Ukrainian resistance exceeding expectations in the face of a far superior Russian force — and with Western sanctions slamming the Russian economy — there’s a chance the new battleground calculus has the Kremlin fishing for a consolation prize. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke this week of “hope for reaching a compromise.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address that the Russians are being “more realistic” at the negotiating table.

With the two sides far apart, what could a deal look like?
The main sticking points

1. Neutrality: For Russia, an insistence on Ukraine’s neutrality is probably the most important demand. The war is rooted in Ukraine’s desire to join the West, aspiring to prosperity and self-determination through memberships in NATO and the European Union. A thriving democracy on Russia’s border linked to the West — especially one filled with as many Russian speakers as Ukraine has — could serve as a tempting model for the Russian people, endangering Putin’s autocratic grip. Publicly, though, Putin claims that Kyiv’s lurch toward the West amounts to a security threat for Moscow, even though Washington and its allies have put Ukrainian membership in those clubs on the slow track.
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2. Western security guarantees: For Ukraine, any pledge of neutrality while it’s still holding its own on the battlefield would likely need to come with a pledge, acknowledged by Russia, that Western powers would come to its aid if Kyiv were threatened again. This is perhaps the stickiest point for Moscow, as it amounts to some acceptance of allied powers, if not NATO itself, involved in Ukraine’s future defense. One way to make this more palatable to the Russians could be a clause limiting the types of weapons kept within Ukraine’s border.

3. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk: The war in Ukraine really started nearly a decade ago, when, after a public uprising that drove out a sitting president, Ukraine signed an association agreement with the European Union and rejected a loan deal with Russia. A furious Kremlin responded by invading and annexing the Crimean Peninsula, while sponsoring and sending in proxies to take over Luhansk and Donetsk in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

As a prelude to invasion, Putin officially recognized the independence of those two separatist provinces. As a settlement condition, Russia may demand recognition by Kyiv and the international community of its annexation of Crimea, as well as de facto Russian control over Donbas — things the Ukrainians have pledged they would never do.

Outside the West, Putin is less isolated than you might think
Ukrainian president calls for more aid as Russian aggression continues
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed German parliament on March 17, as Russian attacks continue across Ukraine. (Leila Barghouty/The Washington Post)
How Ukraine could buy peace

Academics Arvid Bell and Dana Wolf argue on Harvard University’s Russia Matters site that Ukraine could acquiesce on major points while still maintaining sovereignty. First, it would need to agree to self-imposed neutrality — officially giving up on its NATO dream, which is enshrined in its constitution. Zelensky has already suggested he is willing to yield on this key point, admitting publicly this week that NATO membership is not in the cards. The Russians will want this in writing and could require a constitutional amendment to strike Kyiv’s NATO ambitions.
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In a worst-case scenario, Bell and Wolf argue, Ukraine might also need to recognize Crimea as part of Russia and the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk. Russian “peacekeepers” may be required to remain in Donbas, contrary to Kyiv’s insistence that Russia must pull back every soldier from its borders. Despite its stated opposition, some observers see Ukraine as potentially willing to finesse a deal on Crimea and the east, as long as it means a broader Russian troop withdrawal and international security guarantees.

Such a deal might be hard to stomach for the Ukrainian people. But Zelensky — who has come to be seen as a hero in Ukraine and beyond — has the stature to sell an unpalatable agreement. If the Russians would be willing to acknowledge Ukraine’s right to exist and permit Western security guarantees, he’d be getting a new lease on his country’s future.

Benjamin Haddad, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center, told Today’s WorldView that one important bonus Ukraine could push for is closing the door on NATO in exchange for an open one to the European Union. Moscow’s chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, said Moscow cited Austria and Sweden this week as examples for Ukraine. Neutral countries outside NATO, both are prosperous members of the European Union. But it remains unclear whether Putin, the decision-maker in Russia who has expressed a maximalist line, would seriously consider allowing a flourishing democracy to exist on Russia’s doorstep.
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“Russia has said no to the blocs, both the E.U. and NATO. But if you were able to decouple this, and say they won’t join NATO, — so you don’t have the military dimension, in exchange — you could start a process to the E.U.,” Haddad said. “I don’t think that was acceptable to Russia before the war, but I think we’re in a maybe more dynamic situation now.”

The Financial Times on Wednesday reported on a 15-point deal being mediated largely by Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. It included provisions that Ukraine would not join NATO, or allow foreign troops on its soil, but would still be able to keep its armed forces. The Ukrainians, however, have downplayed the document as “a draft” that represents Russian demands. U.S. officials have welcomed positive diplomatic signs but say they have seen no indications that Putin is serious about changing course.
Putin’s nightmare

Russia’s worst-case scenario is one where Putin must effectively accept defeat. This could see, Bell and Wolf argue, a deal that agrees to Russia withdrawing all troops from Ukraine, including the ones in Donbas, and a walk back of Moscow’s recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent. Crimea would remain part of Russia but would be demilitarized. Ukraine would be allowed to pursue E.U. membership but would not join NATO — which even in defeat Putin is likely to see as a red line.
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In return, the West would lift all sanctions on Russia and agree to security talks with Moscow on the future of security and defense in Europe. Many observers, however, view Putin as unlikely to concede this much given how it would impact his stature at home. What is a strongman, after all, if he is no longer strong? He has staked out an extreme line — calling for regime change and insisting Kyiv is run by Nazis despite the fact that Zelensky is Jewish and had family die in the Holocaust.

But if you read the tea leaves of Putin’s words, there may be a subtle sign of a shift.

Rose Gottemoeller, an American diplomat who served as deputy secretary general of NATO from 2016 to 2019, told the Financial Times’ Rachman Review podcast this week that Putin has notably refrained from reasserting demands for Ukrainian regime change in recent days.
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“The Kremlin is not admitting it, but they have now begun to modify some of their demands,” Gottemoeller said. “We have not heard Mr. Putin say, for instance, ‘denazification’ for the last week.”
Why a deal might not happen

The prospect of any peace deal is predicated on Putin understanding that he has bit off more than he can chew, and that’s a really big if right now. Some have argued that he would even turn to low-grade nuclear weapons before risking defeat in Ukraine.

John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, told me he’s skeptical, noting that while Lavrov has suggested an opening, Putin has not. But he doesn’t rule out a deal, especially if the Russians are pushed to their limits on the battlefield, and if the West maintains resolve on sanctions and ups the ante on military equipment for Ukraine.

“It boils down to this, Putin still thinks that this is an invasion he can somehow win on the battlefield,” Herbst said. “If he is ever able to reach the point where he understands that’s not possible, then maybe they begin to negotiate seriously.”
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 09:42 am
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
Russia threatens to attack potential supply chains of S-300 air defense systems to Ukraine.

Following Slovakia’s statement that it is ready to send the systems to Ukraine if they are immediately replaced, Russian FM Sergey Lavrov said that Moscow “will not allow” the transfer.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 10:23 am
@bobsal u1553115,
I don't think she wrote what she thinks.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 11:00 am
Jewish refugees from Ukraine are to be granted the status of quota refugees in Germany. According to the Central Council of Jews in Germany, the simplified immigration regulation will immediately grant them a permanent right of residence. According to the statement, the Central Council negotiated the agreement together with the Federal Ministry of the Interior and the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (Bamf).

Central Council of Jews in Germany Press release
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 01:41 pm
@Walter Hinteler,
Without a doubt.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 05:33 pm
Stalled Russian Troops Beg for Food
At the last Ukrainian checkpoint outside of Kyiv, New Lines hears reports that the soldiers are asking villagers to feed them

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/stalled-russian-troops-beg-for-food/

John Sweeney

John Sweeney is a British investigative journalist who's worked for The Observer newspaper and the BBC's Panorama and Newsnight series
March 18, 2022

Stalled Russian Troops Beg for Food

Cmdr. Muslim Chiberloevsky (R), leader of a Chechen brigade fighting with the Ukrainians and for a free and independent Chechnya / John Sweeney

A few miles on from the roadside shrine to the Ukrainians killed in Stalin’s Great Terror — bleak metal crosses, a slab of granite, birch trees sliding into a dark past — lies the last Ukrainian Army checkpoint.

The last, at least, for us.

We are ordered back toward Brovary, the satellite town made famous some days back when the Russian Army’s tanks huddling toward Kyiv were blasted to pieces by the defenders. The site of the tank ambush lay ahead, but a Ukrainian soldier is firm: “Go back.”

To enforce his argument, a big blast sounds, outgoing, coming from the forest to our right. It is not close, but it is not so far away. You learn to tell the difference between outgoing and incoming. Outgoing, there is one bang and the air pressure doesn’t change. Incoming, you can feel it through your boots.

We get in the car, drive back a little bit, hang around at a roadside picnic area, listen to more blasts, see black smoke scribbling lazily against the cold blue sky. Every now and then an ambulance screams down the four-lane highway, heading for Kyiv.

A couple walk toward us, toward the war, and we have a brief chat. Vanya and Natasha are middle-aged, composed, purposeful. Before the war he traded in seafood; she grew cucumbers and salad.

“I’ll have a smoked salmon sandwich with cucumber.”

Another blast from the woods to our right.

“I’m sorry; that’s not available right now.”

The Ukrainian sense of humor is a wonder to behold. Natasha is still stern.

“I’m going to give you a poor review.”

She laughs too and, for a moment, the war is forgotten while we enjoy our joke and enjoy life. I’m working with Vlad the driver, who picked me up when I hitchhiked to the TV missile attack in Kyiv in the early days of the war, and Eugene, the world’s worst translator, who wore a hair band when we went to the mosque. Coming along for the laughs is Emile Ghessen, a filmmaker from London who, in another life, was a sergeant in the Royal Marines.

Where are Vanya and Natasha going?

“Home, the next village along, a mile and a half away.”

“Is it in Russian hands?”

“No, ours.”

“And the next village, under Russian or Ukrainian control?”

“No one is sure.”

The Russians are close, maybe 10 miles away, maybe less.

We drive back some more and stop at a gas station for a coffee on the east side of Brovary.

Denis, a thick-set taxi driver, is helping a couple shift their stuff out of their war-damaged car into his vehicle. Most of the front of the car is gone; how it made it to the gas station is one of those miracles of war. The man is grim-faced, silent, the woman wretched, crying. A phone rings and the woman starts a long phone conversation. While this happens Denis takes a drag on his cigarette and talks to us.

I’d heard reports that the Russian Army was not just stalled but that here, on this, the eastern claw of its pincer attack on Kyiv, it was going backward.

“Have the Russians moved?”

“No,” says Denis. “They are staying in the same place, neither moving forward or back.”

“How are they?”

“The villagers say that they are begging for food. They’re so hungry, they come to the villagers and ask for something to eat. The villagers say they are not aggressive. Their commanders want them to fight, to be harsh. But they are too busy asking for scraps to eat.”

So that bit of my reporting was on the money. The other day for New Lines I retold a Reuters story from 2011 that a Russian Army officer was sacked after complaining his boys were fed dog food in tins labeled “prime quality beef.”

The dog food army may not be going backward, but it is not going forward, either. It is more worried about what’s for dinner than besieging Kyiv, and that is not good news for Vladimir Putin.

Nor would the president of Russia fancy face time with Cmdr. Muslim Chiberloevsky. He is fighting against the Russian Army. He has been doing it for a while, since 1991, he tells me in a Georgian restaurant in Kyiv. He’s the leader of a Chechen brigade fighting with the Ukrainians and for a free and independent Chechnya. I ask him what he thinks of Putin’s pet Chechen, Ramzan Kadyrov.

The commander’s stern face grows another inch of ice while Eugene translates.

“Kadyrov is not Chechen. He is a traitor.”

The commander’s sense that the war is going badly for Russia was backed by someone else, my friend Johnny Mercer, Tory member of Parliament for Plymouth, former defense minister and, again in another life, an officer in the 29th Commando Regiment Royal Artillery. In British Army speak, a (not that dumb) dumb gunner. When in town, he asked the press corps to keep quiet about his presence until he got back, lest he be accused of starting World War III. He’s back in Britain now, so I can share with you how he thinks Putin’s war is going.

Mercer was the former officer I quoted as saying: “Any army that doesn’t look after its dead doesn’t tend to win.” He believes that “Kyiv is too big for Putin’s soldiers to take.” He was fascinated to hear the fragments of information I had picked up, supporting his hypothesis.

The Russian army suffers low morale. It doesn’t look after its dead. Its generals are corrupt. It gives the boys dog food to eat. Its leader is a fearful paranoiac. And his overtures of peace are nonsense. As French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has said, the “Russian logic is based on the usual triptych: indiscriminate bombardments, so-called humanitarian ‘corridors’ designed to then accuse the adversary of not respecting them and talks with no other objective than to pretend to negotiate.”

Back in 2000 I reported how the Russian military bombed a white-flag convoy of refugees in the Chechen village of Katyr Yurt, killing dozens of civilians.

I met an 8-year-old girl with a cruelly burnt face, both hands burnt and bandaged, a broken right leg swathed in plaster, and a left knee pinioned by iron bolts and internal bruising. Yet she wanted to tell us what happened. Her family was squashed into the family’s black Volga saloon, seven of them. She explained how the convoy left Katyr Yurt for what they hoped was safety. “There was a white flag on our car, flying from a wooden stick,” she said. “Then two planes came and they hit us and my dad and mom were sitting in front of us and my brother and were sitting in the back seat. Then we were blown up. I fell to the mud in the ground.”

Everyone else was killed as they traveled through the Russian Army’s safe humanitarian corridor.

Twenty-two years on, nothing has changed.
0 Replies
 
Lash
 
  -1  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 07:25 pm
Watching Zelenskyy’s sitcom Servant of the People on Netflix.
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Fri 18 Mar, 2022 10:33 pm
@Lash,
Could have been worse: The Apprentice: Ukraine Edition.
0 Replies
 
Builder
 
  -3  
Sat 19 Mar, 2022 12:20 am
Saudis to begin trading in the Yuan for oil sales.

How's that for lacking loyalty to the petrodollar.

Let's go Brandon.....

Builder
 
  -3  
Sat 19 Mar, 2022 01:34 am
@Builder,
Considering the reliance for the petrodollar's actual value being tied directly to oil "exchange" (meaning the hegemony the US has enjoyed) it's now only a matter of time, before the US federal reserve switches to survival mode, and their media division starts trumpeting for war.

Do you think creepy Joe has a plan for this> ?
Walter Hinteler
 
  3  
Sat 19 Mar, 2022 02:05 am
Sergei Lavrov says only Fox is presenting an ‘alternative point of view’ rather than ‘information terrorism’

Russian foreign minister praises Fox News coverage of war in Ukraine
Quote:
Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has praised Fox News for its coverage, appearing on the Russian state-controlled RT network to hail the right-leaning US cable channel, whose primetime host Tucker Carlson has played down the invasion.

“We know the manners and the tricks that are being used by the western countries to manipulate media, we understood long ago that there is no such thing as an independent western media,” said Lavrov, speaking in English in a studio interview on Friday.

“If you take the United States, only Fox News is trying to present some alternative point of view,” he said.

He also denounced the social media ban of former president Donald Trump and took exception to the description of January 6 rioters as terrorists.

“But when you watch other channels, read the social networks and internet platforms, when the acting president was blocked and this censorship continues in a very big way … Whenever something is happening by the way of mass protest, mass demonstrations – which they don’t like – they immediately call it domestic terrorism.

“So it’s a war, and it’s a war which involves the methods of information terrorism,” he said.

Russian media regularly play clips of Carlson criticising the US and Ukraine, and he was still praising President Vladimir Putin hours before Russia invaded Ukraine almost four weeks ago.

In contrast, as Moscow’s bombardment escalated, Russian apologism by numerous Fox hosts, commentators and guests was being corrected on air by the network’s own national security correspondent, Jennifer Griffin.

The mental split-screen effect only sharpened earlier this week when a Fox news team on the ground in Ukraine came under Russian fire on the frontline.

Cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski and producer Oleksandra Kuvshynova were both killed during a Russian attack outside the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. Correspondent Benjamin Hall was badly wounded in the incident.

Lavrov’s comments on Friday came as six western nations accused Moscow of using the UN security council to launder disinformation and spread propaganda, after Russian diplomats again raised allegations that the US was involved in biological weapons, which have been repeatedly denied by both Washington and Ukraine.

Western diplomats slammed the claims, with Britain’s UN ambassador, Barbara Woodward, calling Russia’s tactics the “disinformation of the desperate”.


hightor
 
  5  
Sat 19 Mar, 2022 06:22 am
@Builder,
'creepy' Builder wrote:
Do you think creepy Joe has a plan for this> ?

Yes. Since this situation has been talked about for years I would bet that Biden, while not having a plan in his back pocket, would have no difficulty contacting officials in the Treasury and experts in international finance who have put time and effort into studying the ramifications and developing strategies to implement should the petrodollar system end.
0 Replies
 
 

 
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