Any suggestions or strategies for the (Democrats) in this upcoming 2022 midterm election?

When the longtime sheriff in Las Vegas announced he'd set his sights on the governor's mansion last year, he said he needed to be "well known in the north" to have any chance of defeating Democrat Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak.

More than a year later, that strategy appears to be paying off for Republican candidate Joe Lombardo's first-ever statewide campaign.

Just weeks before Nevadans head to the polls to elect their next governor, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found Lombardo has made gains in Washoe County since August, when the USA Today Network conducted a similar poll.

The survey of 500 likely midterm voters, taken by landline and cellphone Oct. 4-7, has an error margin of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

"Washoe County tends to be the bell weather for Nevada," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston.

Unlike the reliably Republican counties stretching across central Nevada and the blue stronghold that is Clark County in the south, Washoe long has been viewed as the Silver State's swing county.

Lombardo's lead there, Paleologos said, could be an "early signal" of what's to come in the November midterm election.

But, he cautioned, polls are merely a "snapshot in time."

Indeed, the candidates have ping-ponged in the polls throughout the election cycle, according to three separate USA TODAY Network/Suffolk surveys conducted this year.

Just two months ago, for example, Lombardo had only the slightest edge on Sisolak in the north — 42% to Sisolak's 41% share of Washoe County votes.

Since then, Lombardo has managed a seven-point swing in his direction, according to the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, and he's now leading Sisolak, a first-term Democrat, 49% to 44%.

Statewide, however, the two were deadlocked less than a month before the election — and if the Nov. 8 gubernatorial contest is anything like the recent USA TODAY/Suffolk match-up, the heated race could come down to a small margin of votes.

In the October survey, Lombardo defeated Sisolak by just three votes, or 44% to 43%, which is within the poll's margin of error.

Meanwhile, 7% statewide said they were still undecided, while 2% opted for "none of these candidates."

A deeper look at the poll results reveals two potential "tiebreaker" voting blocs.

According to the poll, 18% of voters not registered with either of the two major parties and 14% of voters between 18 and 34 years old said they still weren't sure how they'll vote in the governor's race come November.

"That says dollar for dollar, I want to be focusing on independents and young voters," Paleologos said. "Whether you're Lombardo, who wants to extend his lead, or whether you're Sisolak, who wants to claw back some of the votes, that's the first thing I'd been looking at."

Early voting in Nevada begins Oct. 22 and ends on Nov. 4. The general election will take place four days later.

Why it matters: As some see it, Lake — a 2020 election denier — could easily win the state's gubernatorial race and threaten its 2024 election processes. And with the talent she's already displayed even as a political novice, they see her potential to soar to a vice presidential spot or a post-Trump presidential candidacy.

Zoom in: Of this year's midterm elections slate of "ultra MAGA" candidates, Lake has perhaps the best chance of winning.

.The polls are neck-and-neck. Some Democrats are venting frustration that Katie Hobbs is not presenting a stronger challenge to Lake. Hobbs has refused to debate Lake, which some say signals fear and amounts to "political malpractice."

What they're saying: David Plouffe, the architect of Barack Obama's 2008 victory, told Axios that Lake looks like a "plausible presidential candidate."

.David Axelrod, another key former Obama adviser, offered this assessment of Lake's 20+ years in Arizona local TV before her entrance last year into politics: "If you get a candidate who has the performance skills of a major-market local TV anchor and the philosophy and thinking of Steve Bannon, that's a potent and dangerous combination. ... Look at Italy."

Former President Trump's advisers view Lake as the most politically potent of the "stop the steal" candidates. She is every bit as hardcore an election denier as Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano but infinitely more suited to the age of social media videos and quick TV hits.

.Lake is skilled at creating viral moments by dressing down reporters and eviscerating the mainstream media.

.The 53-year-old former news anchor left journalism altogether in 2021, saying she didn't like how much media has changed since she started.

Behind the scenes: Lake has other advantages that are less visible. Unlike Mastriano, she has been embraced by top figures in the Republican establishment. She is benefiting from their money and connections.

.Doug Ducey, Arizona's outgoing GOP governor and chair of the Republican Governors Association, opposed Lake in her primary. But now, he's backing her with great energy.

.Lake has also charmed Arizona GOP donors, including members of the state's political establishment, according to sources who have witnessed the interactions.

.In private meetings and on calls with donors, RGA officials have made clear they are prepared to spend aggressively to get Lake across the finish line. "Voters have a clear choice and we're confident they'll make Kari Lake their next governor," RGA spokesman Jesse Hunt told Axios.

Between the lines: If Lake wins the governorship, Democrats anticipate that her future endorsements will be sought after, that she will be giving fiery speeches around the country, and that she will have a standing invitation on Fox News.

.Her absence of governing experience and decades of daily TV experience make her a perfect match for aspects of this political moment.

."That's what's changed a lot in our politics. There's a performance aspect to it in both parties," Plouffe said.

."Obama and Trump accelerated that change in many respects, which is that you don't have to sit around for 20 years building your case," he said. "If you've got something compelling to say and you can organize a campaign online, you're a plausible presidential candidate."

The bottom line: Former senior Hillary Clinton adviser Karen Finney said Lake represents "a more polished version" of MAGA.

."I'm sure a big part of why Trump likes her is that TV experience," Finney said. (Fact check: True!) "In the same way he understood how to use media and avoid questions that he didn't want to answer, she certainly has that."

The other side: “Kari Lake is all spectacle and no substance and we’re confident voters will see right through it," said Josselyn Berry, a spokesperson for the Arizona Democratic Party.

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Key Observations and Insights.


What is favoring Kari Lake?


.The last two Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs Polls have come as a big relief for Kari Lake as five polls before the last two polls have been in favor of Katie Hobbs but the winning margin had been very small.

.Now with the last two polls showing Kari Lake leading, the average of the last 3 polls stands at 49%-47% in favor of Kari Lake.

.The latest poll by Insider Poll Advantage shows that Kari Lake is leading voters between the ages of 18 to 39 – she leads Hobbs by 11 points among that age group.

.Kari Lake is leading among independent voters.


Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs, Strengths and Weakness by Demography


.According to the Big Data Poll, Kari Lake leads 54-40 amongst Men while trailing 43-49 among Women

.Katie Hobbs leads amongst the Oldest and Youngest Voters. Kari Lake leads amongst those in the age group 30 to 64.

.Kari Lake leads significantly amongst Latino voters but is surprisingly struggling amongst white voters (Unlike traditional Republican candidates)

.Katie Hobbs leads marginally (Within the margin of error) among Independent voters but a large number of Independent voters are undecided. Joe Biden won this group by about 10%. This is where Katie Hobbs is underperforming.

.Katie Hobbs leads Kari Lake by 35 points amongst Moderate voters. While the biggest group of Arizona voters are Conservative, a majority of voters are either Liberal or Moderate.

.While Kari Lake leads amongst the more affluent and less educated, Katie Hobbs leads amongst the more educated and those with middle incomes.


What Do the Latest Kari Lake Polls Mean For Katie Hobbs?


In over a decade, the race for the office of Arizona’s Governor for the first time became competitive as in the last few elections, the Republicans have had an easy run.

The polls have given both candidates Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs equal chances of winning the race. Hobbs has been ahead of Kari Lake in most of the polls released since the last week of September 2022. However, the last two Kari Lake Polls have favored Kari Lake and have shown Lake leading by 3% over Katie Hobbs.

For Katie Hobbs, the recent poll numbers may not be encouraging as she has been trying to avoid debating Kari Lake. The polls indicated that more independents are now backing Kari lake thus Katie Hobbs is failing to attract the section of voters who hold key to the upcoming Arizona Governor election. Added to it the latest Kari Lake polls also show Hobbs losing the support of the voters between the ages of 18 to 39.


Why is Kari Lake Underperforming Governor Ducey?


.Arizona is one red state which is increasingly turning purple as Kari Lake’s lead is narrowing in the latest polls. It indicates that Former President Trump’s strong support for Lake is a doubtful advantage in attracting some voters and at the same time repelling others. The Former President is expected to return to Arizona for an Oct. 9 rally to support his endorsed Arizona candidates ahead of the Nov. 8 election.

.Kari Lake is struggling amongst voters born in Arizona where she is tied against Katie Hobbs.

.A judge in Arizona judge ruled that the state can enforce a near-total abortion ban after Roe vs Wade was overturned. This gives the Democratic a small bump of about 2%.

.Joe Biden’s approval rating in the state is 41% while only 32% of the Arizonians are happy with the working of the incumbent Governor Doug Ducey.


Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs, Strengths and Weakness by Issue


The key issues among the voters of Arizona are:

(Economy)

(Inflation)

(Immigration)

(Border Control)

(Abortion)

.Abortion has been the central theme of the Katie Hobbs campaign but more than that the issues of the Economy, rising inflation, immigration, and border control are more matters of concern for the Arizona voters.

.On the Economy, the voters are not happy with both the Federal and the State governments but the ones with the Economy as the main concern are more likely to back Kari Lake.

.Inflation is one of the major concerns and the Biden admin is in the line of fire for this. Kari Lake has an advantage over this section of voters. The voters with Immigration and Border control as their main concern are likely to back Kari Lake.


Why Kari Lake will win the Arizona Gubernatorial Election 2022


.While it is true that Kari Lake is underperforming past GOP candidates, Katie Hobbs is underperforming Joe Biden. Joe Biden won Arizona by a very narrow margin.

.Democrats have won very few elections in a state that has recently voted overwhelmingly Republican. Republican registrations lead Democrats by 3.5% but 1 in 3 voters are registered as Independent.

.Katie Hobbs needs a 6% swing from historic averages to win the election, and Kari Lake needs to keep the losses below that.

Two organizations quietly spent $32 million in last month’s midterm elections on organizing meant to combat election denialism and promote voting access, according to a progressive strategist behind the effort.

The Pro-Democracy Center and the Pro-Democracy Campaign put that money into 126 organizations across 16 states, with a particular focus on Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as toward a range of national organizations, some of them left-leaning. The effort also connected donors with key organizations, resulting in an additional $16 million investment, said David Donnelly, the initiative’s lead strategist. The Pro-Democracy Center and the Pro-Democracy Campaign did not directly spend on specific candidates or buy advertising, he said. The initiative did, however, engage around retention of Supreme Court justices in Arizona, he said.

Donnelly said the groups invested in organizations that focused in particular on turning out young voters and people of color, two key parts of the Democratic coalition, and often recommended messages about threats to freedom and democracy.

“If you roll back the clock to the beginning of this year, there was a lot of ink and pixels spilled about the possibility of democratic collapse, and all that didn’t happen,” Donnelly said. A number of Republicans who made names for themselves as election deniers lost high-profile races. “It’s not the full story, but you can’t understand why without lifting up some of the groups that were doing organizing and mobilizing in communities of color and among young people.”

Donnelly would not name the donors behind the groups, which as nonprofits are not required to disclose their contributors. Politico first reported on the efforts from Pro-Democracy Center and Pro-Democracy Campaign on Monday.

The effort was among many campaigns that activated around democracy and voting issues after Donald Trump and his associates tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

On the other side, countless groups popped up at the state and local level to promote election conspiracy theories and amplify false claims about the legitimacy of elections. The groups were organized into several overlapping coalitions, in some cases with the involvement of Trump allies. While it is difficult to determine how much money was spent on those efforts, one prominent supporter, Mike Lindell, has said he spent millions of his own money.

Pro-Democracy Center and Pro-Democracy Campaign teamed with a long list of organizations including Planned Parenthood affiliates, Mi Familia Vota Education Fund in Arizona and Fair Fight Action, the voting rights group aligned with Stacey Abrams, the Democrat who lost her bid for governor in Georgia.

The initiative says it spent about $6 million aiding national groups, $5.4 million in Arizona, $3 million in Michigan and $2.6 million in Wisconsin, all states where Republicans nominated candidates who spread doubt about Trump’s defeat.

The work the initiative funded varied by state, but included supporting organizations that focused on voter registration and turnout efforts, groups that backed a ballot measure that expanded voting access in Michigan, as well as one in Arizona that was kept off the ballot, and those that funded “souls to the polls” events in Florida.

The initiative also funded national and local groups that provided election observers and helped support hotlines where voters called in to report issues, as well as groups doing ballot curing, which means encouraging voters to fix problems with their ballots.

“After 2020 there was a lot of consternation around the election and the election results, so we wanted to build a comprehensive and effective election protection program proactively,” said Micheal Davis, executive director of the group Promote the Vote in Michigan, a voting rights coalition that received a $250,000 grant from the Pro-Democracy Campaign to promote its election protection work. The group was also heavily involved in promoting a successful constitutional amendment that, among other things, mandated at least nine days of early voting and increased access to voting by absentee ballot.

Donnelly said there were “roughly 15” donors behind the $32 million effort, including multiple people within families. He described the donors as having a range of ideological views, although without a list of donors, that is difficult to verify independently.

“One thing Trump and election deniers have done is broaden the ideological spectrum of those who care about walking us back from the precipice,” he said.

Donnelly said the two groups were already gearing up for 2023 and 2024. In Minnesota, for example, the initiative is supporting a local coalition that is working to press a suite of new proposals to expand voting access, including automatic voter registration.

“We’ll take our cues from what state leaders believe is possible,” he said.