Coronavirus Diaries

If you want to keep this silly charade going... would you care to post a graph?

Even a table with the data you are "recording" would be something.

The reason that I am insisting on post the real data is that it is important to get the real facts about what is happening. Currently we have exponential growth with the number of cases doubling every just over 3 days. That is horrifying.

Minimizing the gravity of what is happening is dangerous. This is a big deal.

interesting... my fifteen year old nephew reports that eLearning is so booooooooooooring and he wishes he could go back to class...

I have been tracking the caseload, mortality and recovery data from the same site you referenced above since attention here focused on the virus in the first days of March. The decline I reported in the daily increase in the USA case rate that occurred from March 13 - 15 was indeed accurate as I reported. However, as we have seen the exponential rise in our case rate resumed quickly after March 17. Looking back at the data for the previous weekend, March 6 - 8 one can see a similar flattening , which I expect is a reoccurring weekend effect.

I believe this is the issue behind our disagreement. I was accurate in the data I cited, but, as was later revealed, quite wrong in the interpretation I made of it.

I apologize for my insulting comments on your reaction.

Looking forward it is worth noting that our caseload started rising early this month - two & a half weeks ago. Our current cases recovered (108 of 11,355 total ~1%) is very low, However, assuming that the mean recovery period - for those who recover - is roughly 3 weeks from infection, we should start seeing an accelerating rise in the number and percentage of recovered people, who, presumably, are no longer potential carriers of the infection. This will be the driver for a, likely slow, growth in the "herd immunity" in the country. How long that will take is as yet uncertain; however the effect is real and significant.

In the meantime we await the introduction of effective treatments of the disease in those most seriously affected - something that could develop fairly soon - and a vaccine, which is likely a year away.

For interested students with good teachers, I have no doubt your nephew's opinion is valid.

From the teachers' viewpoint, for the very same reasons as your nephew's opinion, it is quite different. I spend probably ten minutes each class period at the beginning and the end, trying to keep disengaged students from disrupting. I have to differentiate lessons for about six various abilities and language levels. Teachers are pulled in so many directions.

I have one homogeneous class -- Honors. It is fabulous-- the kids love it--I love it because we're all operating from the same basic level of underestanding, so that when I'm teaching - I can teach to everyone on the class. I can pinpoint our Zone of Proximal Development and make lessons interesting and challenging without leaving anyone behind.

Not so with any other class.

Every other class has a sprinkling of students new to the country who know no English; some who know a little English; some who operate at approximately a third to fifth grade level of English----EVERY OTHER CLASS.

Imagine creating meaningful, engaging lessons for that class. How are the average English students faring in that class?

That's reality.

Imagine your nephew in there.

The good news is that I can meet each student where he/she is in writing and help them level up whether they are a newcomer to English or a gifted student. THIS is real individualized instruction--at least in my neighborhood.

I think you are making a mathematical mistake then. You can't take 2 days of data out of a much larger series to make a trend line. It's mathematically invalid (and it allows you to see what you want to see rather than accepting the mathematical reality).

I hope that we will see a mathematically significant decline in the data. It is certainly possible that this will happen next week (given the social distancing we have all been doing). But it hasn't happened yet.

I checked the world wide statistics. The number of cases is rising at a rate "faster than exponential". I know the mathematics of exponential functions very well. I don't know the science of epidemiology. I am guessing that the world wide growth is growing at this rate because a greater number of people are being tested than before. That seems reasonable to me.

It isn't that much big stuff - since it is college housing almost all the furniture stays - some smaller things like shelves that break down - a chair - most is just stuff like bedding and things not too many bigger items. Her roommate has the fridge which is heavier - she won't be there when we are - is coming later - we are leaving her a key for the storage.

I have moved her in and out for the past few years. Next year is her last -- then the next one goes.

I've been binge-watching some TV series that I've been wanting to see but had not yet gotten around to watching.

I've also started rereading Lord of the Rings.

A-ha! I never read the George RR Martin series that spun into Game of Thrones. I have to figure out which one to start with.

I might check out the Tolkien too.

Glad I could help.

I'm diving back into The Magicians TV series. It's quite an interesting take on Narnia. It's loosely based on a series of books too. Maybe I'll look into those after I finish Tolkien.

I buily curragh about 10 years ago and , had I known then hat I do know about seaworthiness in small boats. I woulda made mine deeper draw and a little longer. SO, Im planning to et up a new, tighter frame built and itll be a longer and deeper curragh .
Curragh or similar boats like coracles were Irish dinghies that re high nded but almost round. I believe some Irish monks designed em firs back in the 800AD times.

I built a 14' assembly table that is 4' wide and toppd with 2.5" beech boards.
It has 4sts of 6" squre Doug Fir Legs and is big enough to assembl the boat.

Im planning to build it for tidal stream fishing in an Along the Inland waterway.

late spring to early summer is a hot flounder catching time inland and I need a better boat and dont like Fibreglas or Lunimun (even though Im using a Lunimun" Alaska boat" for ducking into these tide creeks from off the ocean.

Now I gotta go find a store thats considered critical where I can buy some copper nails.

Outside a that, some gardening , cleaning up, NOT MUCH, you?

Just got done rading Attenborough's new one"THE PIONEERS"

Its a story of the exploration and settling of the first WEST (The Ohio Vally)

I enjoyed the Magicians very much. How far are you in the series?

You realize that the story (including the Narnia angle) gets very dark, right? After that it gets darker. I won't say any more.

How many people is dying https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Friday--Day 3 of eTeaching (a holiday) and Day 5 of No Toilet Paper in Stores)

I'm not supposed to be working today, but I'm interacting with overachievers about their horrific writing. I only had about 5 kids re-writing for punctuation, grammar, sentence structure, and word salad. Half the kids haven't done any work.

My sister called and is starting to become depressed and worried. She'd called my son when she couldn't get me--and this makes me so happy; he's a great source of realism and solution-oriented responses. She's worried that our old normal will never really return. I know it's a possibility, but I don't think it's likely. She's also worried that the coronavirus is strike 1 of a planned aggression by some country to the rest of us. That one surprised me a bit, but I think we are seeing Russia take advantage of the situation and our weak economy with dropping their oil prices... not that it's certain to have the desired effect.

Not incredibly confident about a good economic resolution to this in the short term, but there's no sense in dwelling on it. I guess we should be considering all contingencies and responding the best we can.

I'd like to have an electric car right now.
Glad the kid is planting vegetables.
Washing my hands...

EDIT: Teachers received a lumbering email detailing when we should start thinking about two additional units on eTeaching. Interestingly, we should start thinking NOW about 4/1-4/15 and later (during that time), lessons for the rest of the year.

I'm betting we will not return at least until mid-April, and it is possible--not then.

The Gov has instituted a tighter shut down and actually mentioned **** about looting. I don't like the military in the streets. It is sad for me to see these trucks rolling into towns all around this country.

We’re hunkering down and venture out sporadically as we’re blessed with gorgeous 85 degree weather while the jacarandas are in bloom.

We’re just gave or neighbor a lift for her cardiologist as she can’t drive at the moment.

Our tickets to see a local play were canceled and theater is now closed for the season. Not sure they'll be able to reopen again, either.

We’re keeping busy by building a baby Indian elephant (30-in-tall) in our garage. The skeletal base is 3/8-in plywood I cut out of the wood using a reciprocating saw. I’ve never used one in my life but I’m somewhat handy, after all.

Marvelous Maxine found online a good storyboard how to make this and printed out the blueprint on some graph paper. I traced and scaled it up and drew the grid on plywood. I literally stuck to the plan. The legs were cut separately from body as well as the ears.

We used newspaper, toilet paper and bubble wrap to shape the body and plump it up. We made a compound od Elmers white glue, joint compound, white flour, cornstarch and mineral oil to make the outer skin and toenails. We bought clear half-marbles to make the eyes, drawing the pupils and whatnot. Even bought
fake eyelashes for the eyes.

We’re now at the stage of painting the skin and making the wrinkles where they’re needed. Final step is the character lines in the eyelids and knees and trunk.

The toughest part is the decision on where to put it.

Furthermore, we are playing Bridge. We practice daily at home and once per week we play at the clubhouse in a group, but we’re not sure if it isn’t being interrupted this week and for the near future due to the “health event”.

We just came back from taking out my brother and his wife to a local deli. We nearly had the place to ourselves. The waitress was very happy to see us. (We tipped heavily and she deserved it, too).

Just heard the Tom Brady is coming to Tampa Bay Bucs. Will be fun to see him locally in a last hurrah.This should make watching them much more fun. Yes, this is assuming that there will be an NFL season to watch.

Building an elephant isn't something I thought anyone would be doing to bide their time. Hahaha! That's brilliant.

Today is our first day of the beautiful type of weather you mentioned. It does make the reality not as bleak as the grey overcast that's been framing our little dystopia for a week.

Your mention of the happy waitress reminded me of the IHOP a block a way. When i drove by 30 minutes ago, a dude was standing in front, holding a Jethro Bodine sign that offered free kids food with any take out or delivery meals.

I've never seen that.

Thanks for emergency- tipping that waitress.

Thanks! I'm scouring for an interesting book. I'll check it out.

I keep seeing "Nobody has face masks." They got a stack of them for $4 in the little grocery less than a block from my neighborhood.