Coronavirus Diaries

I am not looking to get in a pissing contest with you George.

But this is pretty damn serious. The people on the front lines of fighting this virus are all saying "oh ****!". No one should be minimizing this.

When you post links with a "Facebook Click ID" code in them, that allows Facebook to record connections between you and everyone who clicks your links.

If you remove the "fbclid=xxxxxx" from a URL, it still works just as well.

No pissing required. Merely read the words I wrote and try to find a meaningful element of disagreement.

In nature, exponential growth doesn't continue forever. As whatever phenomenon that may be driving the change changes, grows, and saturates its environment (and stimulates the development of counter actions - such as social distancing in this case) its growth begins to taper off, yielding a forward-leaning S -shaped curve. The first sign of this is a decline in the incremental growth per unit of time (note decline in the rate of growth, not the quantity itself). The trajectories over time of the data in the site which you reference does indeed indicate the existence of such an incremental decline in the data increase for the United States, Canada and most (not all ) of the nations of Europe. The same phenomenon was detectable in the Data from China several weeks ago, and we can see now what it has led to.

To detect this from the data in the site you referenced you would have had to record the daily data over time. I have done that and that is the basis for my statement.

You simply jumped to some meaningless (I believe) conclusions without reading the text; thinking about it, or considering the available evidence. Your problem: not mine.

This is simply untrue. I have read it over several times. It is still untrue. It is factually untrue. It is mathematically untrue.

In the graph I posted, anyone can see it is untrue. The data show unmitigated exponential growth with sign of decline for the US for both the number of cases and the number of deaths.

Then you are a fool.

Do you want to post your raw numbers, and we can do a regression? You are mathematically incorrect. I don't know if you are just falling prey to wishful thinking. But you are minimizing what is in truth a really serious situation.

Statistically corona virus is exhibiting exponential growth. The number of cases are doubling every just over 3 days. This is the same as 5 days ago. Name calling won't change that.

The raw data, as anyone can see, shows that right now it is growing exponentially. You are right that hopefully social distancing will stop that. But you can't say that is happening until you can show mathematically from the data that it is happening. The graph that you agree is correct makes it pretty clear that is isn't yet.

Nor would you expect it to, yet. Social distancing in earnest started last week. Since the incubation period is 11 or 12 days, the people who are being diagnosed now came into contract with the disease before the social distancing really started.

But either way... the data is the data.

- You make unsupported statements
- You don't provide any data (you could prove your point by posting a simple graph or a table showing what you are talking about).
- When I disagree with you, rather than making a factual argument, you make insults.

I have given you graphs and pointed you to raw data. Show me a graph, or a table to support your wild ass claim, or stop minimizing what is turning into a very serious crisis.

"Distract yourself from coronavirus and watch SpaceX launch the same rocket for the fifth time"
"The rocket will attempt to social distance at 8:16AM ET"

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21183334/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-starlink-launch-5th-time

That's about 2 hours from now.

Wednesday--

First day of eTeaching. My 11 favorite teachers and I are all sitting around in our homes, troubleshooting glitches for our students, mentally coaxing the little game-obsessed kids to do their little work.

But, the coolest thing happening is that these teachers and I are scouring the web for local businesses and services where they (and maybe their families) can get a meal to replace the ones they've lost--or other sservices that might make this disruption less horrible.

Several teachers stay in this job because of a service mentality--and many of us naturally gravitate to each other because of similar qualities.

The mass texting is funny--my phone's on silent now--but I pick it up every fifteen minutes or so and have to laugh at the nutty reparte.

Number of students accessing my classwork this morning? 6/80

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The reason for the barbs flying on text? The school has instructed us to begin thinking of an eLearning unit for April 1 - 30--and to cast an eye toward completing the school year online.

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My daughter;s community college has informed them it will remain like this for the rest of the school year.

What kinds of degrees are college and high school seniors walking away with?

I am more worried about my college daughter's lab classes. How do you a lab via computer?

The other classes should be fine. It is more those classes that require hands on.

I know (now she isn't in any this year) - there are ones like dance, music, etc - that how do you learn dance and show your abilities?

University of Delaware has implemented a lab-on-lin in its biochem and chem and chem engineering courses that have lab requirements. They have several "webinars" on dealing with a lab experiment of two and then have a separate one that must be keyed into and is set up with UNKNOWNS and instrumentation so the machines (XRF, GC, MS etc etc) are handled with the student providing answers.
I ont know if its started yet but it was in some kind of design phase last summer before we had any knowledge of covid at all.

Interesting - just don't want my dollars to go to waste if she cannot really get the knowledge needed.

I do have a positive in my household - my older daughter being home longer is causing my two daughters to become "friends" again.

They have become more distant in the past couple of years in large part to my older daughter being away - it is nice to seem them doing so much together again. Especially as my older daughter is a good influence on her.

I've put this article up on a few other covid19 threads as well.

The Man Who Saw the Pandemic Coming

today my place issued a mandatory work from home policy, until further notice...

Data as of today. Still no sign of slowing.

My theory is that the any slowing of second derivative (the rate of change of the rate of change) will start next week. The incubation rate is 12 days and people started serious social distancing on the 11th. The numbers will keep going up, but maybe less than exponentially.

If this doesn't scare you....

We need to learn to protect ourselves：Stop outdoor activities, Wear a mask, stay at home.
I have to admit that we will lose our freedom during this time

so now I need to drive to my daughter's school - a 10 hour drive to get her stuff, but much in storage and move her out - we were told they are going to finish the semester online. Fortunately we will get a credit for room and board!

And fortunately I was able to find a storage unit - leaving in the am tomorrow - called at the hotel I will be staying at and they told me they have no restrictions in their area. Only suggestions to stay in.

Hopefully I will make it back.

Can you hire locals to help you with lifting and shlepping?? That sounds daunting to me. Five years ago, it'd be nothing to me, but this is now...

It's amazing, these details that we don't think of when we think 'coronavirus.' Thank you for sharing what's happening. Please try not to tax your strength (and immune system) too much.

At least the school didn't stick you with the full room and board.

So, I cannot believe this is only my second day of eTeaching. I have emailed 50 kids about two written lessons since yesterday, and been subjected to a HURRY UP AND BE EVALUATED RIGHT NOW evaluation.

But, I gotta say, teaching is infinitely more productive this way. eTeaching has driven home for all of us just how effective online teaching is--and how substandard and politically-warped classroom teaching is.

Day 4 of no toilet paper in any store. I have 3 rolls... I had to get inside information from the cashier today.

So far, no one in the family is experiencing any symptoms. I'm tired of the movie channels. I guess I could go hiking. I think I'm going to take another swipe at Infinite Jest or some such other novel.

What are you people DOING??